저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 금은 연말 낙관 후 반등이 예상되며, 향후 연준 긴축 종료와 대규모 양적완화로 귀금속이 크게 오를 것이라는 전망. 금 가격 전망: 금은 12월 1,251달러 수준으로 5개월 최저, 1,300달러선 붕괴 후 반등 기대. 연말 낙관→새해 반등 실패→금 재매수 패턴이 반복됐다고 설명. 연준 금리인상이 끝나면 금은 과거 인상 후처럼 상승할 것이라 봄. 달러 전망: 내년 달러는 긴 약세장의 새로운 하락 leg 시작으로 예상, 올해 들어 달러 하락 첫 해라고 언급. 연준·중앙은행: 시장은 자금 회수가 가능하다고 잘못 믿고 있으나 긴축 중단, 제로금리 복귀, 마이너스 금리 가능성, QE4 필요 전망. 이 과정에서 금·상품 가격 급등과 채권 가격 하락 압력 예상. 재정·인플레이션: 감세로 재정적자가 늘며 정부는 차입과 화폐 발행으로 부담을 메울 것이고, 이는 인플레이션으로 이어져 금에 강세 요인. 미국은 쌍둥이 적자에 저금리 의존. 은: 은은 약 15.47달러로 하락, 연말 차익실현 영향으로 언급, 구체 방향 예측은 없음. 비트코인: 역사상 가장 큰 거품 중 하나이며 17,000달러대에서 파산 위험 경고. 수익 일부는 금 등 실물로 전환하라고 조언. 리스크: 긴축 지속 시 금 반등 지연 가능, 전망은 장기 중심.
다듬은 글
for gold the price tumbled on Friday to near five-month low Peter discusses Peter shift the CEO of euro pacific capital peter thanks for hanging with us I know you're waiting there for a while we appreciate it for gold that $1300 price range was was there for a long time we kept seeing it for many months but now after Friday when the price declined to 1251 per ounce its lowest since July many are questioning whether any upward momentum is is in sight you know gold well what's your take well you know the last few years you've seen gold sell off at the end of the year and then rally pretty strong in the new year because what happens is towards the end of the year people get very optimistic about the future Oh things are gonna get better growth is gonna pick up the economy is gonna take off and so they get optimistic they buy stocks they buy the dollar a little bit they sell their gold and then the new year comes around and the hoped for rebound doesn't materialize and then they buy the gold back and the dollar sells off and and that's I think where we are I think there's a lot of misplaced optimism out there surrounding the tax cuts you know the feds supposed to raise rates on Wednesday they probably will so that rate hike has been supportive of the dollar and has been hurting gold but once that rate hike is in the rearview mirror I think gold will react the same way it has to the prior rate hike that I think it's gonna go up and I think the dollar is gonna have a very bad year next year I think this is the first year the dollars been down in quite some time but I think it's the beginning of the next major leg down and what has been a long-term dollar bear market okay you piqued my interest with several things there so first of all about the holiday time the end of the year when people are optimistic you're saying Peter as part of that do do we see part of the price of gold seen in the purchase of jewelry or is that just a minor part I think that's a minor part of it you know last year it was the optimism over Trump right Trump had just gotten elected and everybody thought oh this is gonna be great he's gonna make America great again we're gonna get rid of you know we're gonna shrink government we're gonna cut regulations we're gonna lower taxes and so early in the year it turned out that that wasn't the case and you know now all of a sudden we're getting excited again because we're talking about tax cuts but we're not talking about shrinking government and as long as government gets more expensive we have to pay for it and if we're not gonna pay for it with taxes we're gonna pay for it through debt and inflation and that is what we're gonna do and that's gonna be a more expensive way to pay for government than the taxes okay now just just for our viewers who aren't following this like you do Peter what give us the 52 weeks on the highs and lows for gold in the last year or at least the range well I go yeah well gold did get up around 1300 I think it actually broke through it a little bit but then it pulled back but you know it did get lower it got down I think even around 1200 earlier in the year and that's kind of been the range but you know I think that we bought about remember of gold bottomed out at a thousand 50 in December of 2015 when the Fed first raised interest rates and everybody thought gold was gonna tank when the Fed started to raise rates and the first rate hike marked the bottom of gold and since then I think we've been building a base but eventually we're gonna take off and we're gonna take out the high from 2011 which i think was around 1900 ollars so once we really get through 1350 1400 I think well you know we'll have some clear sailing for much higher prices do you think that with with the the sort of a comet of monetary policy and you're talking about the the open markets committee the Federal Reserve's committee that meets on tomorrow on Tuesday and Wednesday and and everybody is suggesting that they will go ahead and raise rates on Wednesday do you think that's already been baked in to markets and also the price of gold or do you think investors are still gonna take some action Wednesday after the announcement and the rest of the week well I think what's been priced in is the fact that so many people believe that all this loose money can be withdrawn that the Fed can reverse the policy or other central banks that they can normalize interest rates that they can shrink their balance sheets none of this is possible that's what the markets don't get the cheap money of the past is going to be even cheaper money in the future the Fed is going to have to abort the tightening they're gonna have to go back to zero in the next recession which could happen a lot sooner than people think they might even go negative they're gonna have to launch QE 4 it's gonna have to be bigger than 1 2 & 3 combined when the when the markets figure this out then it's a whole different game and then you know then you're gonna start to see much bigger moves up in in in the price of gold and in other commodities as well and that's when you're gonna start to see real downward pressure on bond prices when people realize how the central bank's have lost control of this and that they have no ability to reverse course Andy and I assume that that statement about sort of the loose monetary policy isn't just about the Fed I mean it's that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England I mean it seems like most of the central banks around the world have a fairly a comet of monetary policy right now and that feeds into what you're saying correct yeah everybody does but ultimately I think the Fed is going to be the easiest and that's what's going to catch the markets by surprise we've got the most deaths and you know we can't sustain them ourselves we have huge trade deficits in addition to our budget deficits we have no real domestic pool of savings we rely on the savings generated and in Asia and other parts of the world so we have to borrow money from the rest of the world to buy the products that the rest of the world produces so we have these twin deficits and I think America more than any other country is completely addicted to this cheap money so while other countries may be able to raise rates we're stuck we're gonna have to keep them lower longer than anybody else yeah when you said that about debt I read something earlier today and I can't source it but I really read it it said that tax bill would equal 8,000 dollars of debt per household and it's so ironic because traditionally you know the Republicans and for all my life has been such a deficit hawks and this is adding to the the deficit do you think that's going to have just if we're running up the deficit that that's really gonna have a longer-term impact on precious metals Peter well definitely the Republicans are only deficit hawks when they're out of power never they're in power right then they don't care about the deficit see the Republican version of a free lunch is tax cuts for everybody but they don't want to cut at any government spending so they only oppose government spending when it's the Democrats who are doing is spending but once they're in power they think they just want to spend as much as the Democrats so it's all a bunch of politics it's a theater but yes it is all going to benefit precious metals because when the government decides to pay for its spending by printing money and borrowing money rather than taking it from us in a more honest manner like taxes so when the Republicans cut our taxes but they don't shrink the size of government when government gets more expensive and they reduce the revenue to pay for it then where do they get the money we don't get all the government for nothing so they have to create the money they have to print money Federal Reserve has to print money to buy the additional bonds that the Treasury has to sell to replace the tax revenue they lost and that diminishes the value of the dollar that causes prices to rise so the way the government gets our purchasing power is through inflation so instead of taking our money away from us they leave us the money but they take the value away from the money and higher inflation is bullish for gold you explain that very well thank you for that I know where as our viewers appreciate it now I can't let you go without getting into silver silver also dropped it's about 50 cents on Friday at at Comex the commodity exchange in new york to fifteen dollars and 47 cents what's the latest on silver and where have we been on that what's the sort of been the the year-over-year range on that too Peter well you know it's the same thing as goldust got the same end-of-the-year problem you have all this optimism the Dow is hitting new highs people are excited about it and so you know you've got a little bit of a profit taking you know they used to refer to silver as the poor man's gold but now they've got something I guess even cheaper the crypto currencies you've got a lot of people you know I got a phone call today from a delivery truck driver who called me up saying he wanted to buy some Bitcoin I didn't even know how he got my number but he thought he just was looking he was just from Jamaica you know he had he just you know wants to buy Bitcoin I told look I'm not a Bitcoin salesman we're a broker firm I told them you know what to do but you know so instead of looking to buy silver you got people buying some crypto currencies and you know just spinning the wheel in that casino yeah and I you know look I do get concerned you know I'm not a money adviser or anything but I've heard people talk about you know mortgaging their house to invest in Bitcoin or taking out of their IRA and and boy I sure wouldn't do I wouldn't do that I am reminded Peter that look go ahead go ahead yeah I'm just gonna say look you know this is probably the biggest bubble I think I've ever seen and I've you know witnessed quite a few and this short period of time that I've been around you know the Fed central banks have kept money very cheap and so they've inflate it and I've normal amount of bubbles I mean this is not a coincidence that we have all this cheap money and we have all these bubbles but you know Bitcoin keeps going up I'm in 17,000 today and look how big can the bubble get I don't know I mean I'm not that smart I'm smart enough to know what is a bubble but I'm not smart enough to know where the peak is but there's an old saying right those make money Bears make money and pigs get slaughtered and there are a lot of Bitcoin pigs I believe who are gonna get slaughtered so if you happen to own some Bitcoin and you bought them and you have some profits sell now might say you have to sell everything you don't have to take it all off the table you know you can play with some of the houses money but you know take some money buy some gold right but take some of your windfall and and put it into something real because when the bubble stops and all the paper profits vanish you want something more than memories to show for it you want it you know you just don't want to talk about what you could have done what you should have done of what you would have done you know right take some of those paper profits turn some of it in the gold maybe buy something with it by yourself you know as something that you could enjoy don't just don't let the house take it all away because that's what's gonna happen I think to a lot of people they get emotionally involved in this bubble they think trees are gonna grow to the sky and they're not thank you she's no different than any other bubble except maybe it's more irrational than most thank you peter got it got a bolt here but thank you for that good investment advice Thank You neva a lot Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital you have a great day take care thank you
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