저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼은 2022년 1월 IDA 컨퍼런스 인터뷰에서 인플레이션은 일시적이 아닌 구조적 요인이 있어 지속될 것이며, 연준 등 중앙은행이 금리를 올려야 하지만 경기침체 없이 조절하기 어렵다고 봤다. 아일랜드는 교육·정책 덕에 기술 허브로 성장했고, JP모건도 디지털 은행 챌린저에 대응해 영국 리테일(Chase UK)과 브라질 디지털뱅크 등에 투자 중이라고 설명했다. 공급망 문제는 수요 폭증으로 인한 것이라 반도체 등은 내년 말쯤 해소될 것으로 봤고, 미·중 간 국가안보 목적의 디커플링(부분적 재편)은 불가피하지만 무역 자체가 단절되지는 않을 것이라고 전망했다. 멕시코 노동비용이 중국보다 낮아져 제조 이전 기회가 있다고 언급했다. 기후변화 대응을 위해 산업정책과 R&D가 필요하며, 탄소세를 저소득층에 환급하는 방식이 합리적이라고 주장했다. 재택근무는 대면 협업·아이디어 교류에 한계가 있어 출근과 재택이 혼합된 형태로 수렴할 것이며, 사무공간은 개방형·공용공간 중심으로 바뀔 것이라고 봤다. 기업은 주주가치만이 아니라 고객·직원·사회에 대한 책임을 져야 하며, 정부·기업 협력으로 인프라·의료·이민 문제를 풀어야 한다고 강조했다. 미국 정치의 양극화는 지나치다고 평가했다. 개별 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 금리·인플레이션에 대한 거시 전망이 중심이다.
다듬은 글
our next guest needs little introduction he has been ceo of jp morgan chase since 2005 and chairman of the board since 2006 one of the most influential business leaders in the world mr jamie dimon jamie you're very welcome thank you for taking time to speak with us today i'm going to start with ireland as you were recently here jp morgan has a big presence here what were your impressions yeah so martin thank you for having me here and uh you know look i i think i spoke when i was there you know ireland has done so well and i i tell the world it's something we should gives great hope because you go back 30 or 40 years you know it's male dominated it was as educated as today and look at it today it's a it's a educated melting pot growing jobs rational policies uh you know when i met with a lot of the companies there it's become a tech hub and a tech center you know not not a tax haven or anything like that so uh and of course you know the people the pubs it's a beautiful place to visit glad to hear it i'm glad you had a good experience here um maybe switching to your own business for a moment you've launched chase in the uk providing a direct response to you know challenger digital banks how do you see that developing yeah so we you know a long time we spoke about not doing retail overseas because we really couldn't go to any place dublin or or england or something put retail branches in and think we could compete with good local banks digital changed that so we started skunk works way back uh we call it dynamo but now we call them product chase and we said can we build something from the ground up that if we do a very good job and we have staying power we've got brand we'll be adding products and services over time and we're not going to do just the uk eventually we'll go to other places i think we can build a fabulous retail system with some competitive advantages because it's part of jpmorgan chase globally so uh we're going to keep on investing actually my next meeting is to go through uh you know our consumer international strategy and we did buy uh a digital bank in brazil so we're we're still and we're an investment company called nutmeg robo investor in uh in the uk so we're gonna keep on coming and eventually we're gonna be a winner in that do you see the uh technology world and the financial world merging even more and more as we go forward yes you know i think as you know we're building some of the stuff we're doing for chase retail in in dublin yeah you know fintech is if you look at fintech in total it's almost bigger than banks in total at this point some have done a very good job some had advantages and didn't have quite the disadvantages but you know today they are absolutely coming together and merging we partner we compete uh whether it's in payment systems or digital or retail or we're investors or something like that so uh i think that anyone who's not thinking that ai digital cloud machine learning aren't they're real and you better get good at it no matter what kind of company you are because that will change your future i want to touch on uh some of the big issues that are on investors minds at the moment so inflationary transit tree are here to say for some time and how do you expect central banks to respond yeah it's clearly here to stay and i think uh you know i think you have to look at it like the united states is five percent i think it's a little bit less than parts of europe uh right now but i think you look at what part is transitory there's no question that you know used car prices and lumber and certain things are transitory there's also no question that in the united states home price is not transitory certain wages aren't transitory i think you know certain policies could drive oil possibly over a hundred dollars is not transitory so and okay we hopefully will subside and we'll still have growth you know the important thing martin if we were sitting here a year and a half ago you know we had the united states i don't know the exact number in dublin we had 15 unemployment and no resolution no vaccine to covet now we have 4.2 unemployment we have a vaccine and we're complaining about wages going up too much which is i think the good side of the mountain so uh but i think the several banks are kind of a delayed a dollar slow they will have to raise rates you saw recently i mean the uk just raised yesterday some people said it was a surprise we didn't think it was surprised you know the fed went to three you know increases next year my guests will end up doing four or five and they're just gonna have to be stronger in the face of what is actually rather good growth and again that's very important rather good growth and unemployment coming down below four percent is a very good thing with this negative inflation so uh they kind of have to thread a needle a little bit which is raise rates enough and reduce liquidity enough to slow down growth slow down inflation but not cause a recession can they do that well you know let's hope they can it was turning to to supply chain issues uh some of those probably caused by the pandemic in some cases the fault lines were probably revealed by the pandemic how long uh will it take to correct those issues in your view and will we still be looking at supply chain issues a year two years down the road no it's basically we're having global growth you know very good growth around the world with supply chain issues and you're absolutely correct there are two different parts to it one is that demand just skyrocketed and the world wasn't prepared for it demand shifted it went to goods so all of a sudden you couldn't build enough cars and refrigerators and porches and and so that that is subside as we speak i've spoken all the semiconductor folks they think that will be a non-issue by the end of next year and that's one of the big ones and the other thing you mentioned which is a different one is what we would all call the national security part of it like we i maybe we all rely on supply chains a little bit too much in one country or one place or or something else so that those are all going to sort out and i think they're starting out very actively today we won't be talking about this in a year and do you foresee geopolitical issues exacerbating supply chain issues in the short term or will will the market just take care of that no i do think that geopolitical issues will cause a problem and mostly with china so you know like i'm in favor of what's having detailed mature strategic economic dialogue with china listen to each other you know obviously you all know the trade is a lot of legitimate complaints it was up to me america would rejoin tpp which has a new name now but there will be unilateral decisions that both countries are going to make around national security and that's you know and you've already seen it with huawei and yesterday with dgi the drone company the chinese are doing it too about you know data and some of the internet companies listing here i think it's okay that it happens it's not going to decouple trade it'll just you know be a fairly large restructuring of what gets done and then some companies will do it too that they rely too much on manufacturing in china and now they're going to maybe move some of it to mexico or something and you know i was also in mexico and this is why travel is so important you know when you meet people and you guys gave me some great ideas which i've now shared with america by the way that that mexico labor is now cheaper than china so you know you could if you want to manufacture something you can have it done there and you know it's right next to america lower transportation cause and it could be a very smart thing for a lot of companies to do jimmy i was wondering what how you think about the issue of climate change and uh decarbonization is this a key factor as you review potential investments now does it permeate everything everything and you know i think europe was ahead of us on a head of america on this but we think it's very serious very intelligently we need real industrial policy uh by industry paper pulp steel car auto uh you know we need uh and it needs to be it needs to be global it needs to have we need a lot of r d so i'm hoping that governments and businesses do this very wisely i'm worried that we won't and one of the things i learned from you guys about you have a carbon tax i think if you if i remember correctly you told me at 170 dollars i said how did you do that without causing a political uproar because you know obviously raising tax on that kind of tax is regressive and you know none of us want to cause a problem like the yellow jackets or things where it's unfair to lower income individuals have to drive more or buy more gas or can't afford it less and then you guys kind of i think what you told me is that you basically returned it to low income people through housing credits and gas credits and uh education credits and that's what we need to do something like that here because you're going to need some kind of uh tax which is the most rational way to apportion people's decision-making which can dramatically reduce co2 without that much pain by the way i i understand this is all rapid fire jamie but we're really anxious to hear from you on uh so many subjects so i i suppose the other big discussion that's underway at the moment is on the future of work and some business leaders saying that employees can work from anywhere anytime others believe that employees need to be back in the office for a myriad of reasons you appear to be firmly in the latter camp from our discussions can you explain why yeah yeah you know i'm kind of in the ladder camp and i think people hyperventilating over this and trying to again people look at like it's not binary so i'm going to take the united states for now 110 million people go to work every day and they have through the crisis these are manufacturing agriculture retail our bank branches ups fedex amazon the military police firemen hospitals it's 40 million who or 50 million who weren't going to work every day of course some of those would be permanently at home you have that today there are certain jobs they can do it 100 from home so now you're talking about the 30 or 40 million in between who've always been partial like if you look at our bankers and traders they travel they're on the road they use their screens so we've digitized faster zoom works but but you have to acknowledge it doesn't work perfectly well for apprenticeships it doesn't work well for ideas i mean if i didn't travel to ireland i wouldn't have learned that thing that you what you guys do with carbon tax i i wouldn't have sat next to the treasurer of amazon and google learned how they're looking at the tax changes in ireland i wouldn't have learned you can't learn by just sitting home so i just think people have to feel irrational and that we also need to be in together so it might be that you will have travel days you know or work from home days but these days we're together so i think it'll sort out over time i think the biggest change it's going to create is open workspace you know you're not going to build a building for 100 people when you know 65 or in under the average day so you have more open workspace more amenity space so you won't cut out all the space and so so you'll have more hybrid but it won't be quiet with people it'll feel i think it'll fill up afterwards like it did before with a little more work from home yeah i think that the pendulum will will find a kind of a a a stability somewhere in the middle there um my my next question is kind of an omnibus question and i want to take you back to your chairman's letter uh in 2020 and the role of corporate citizens and the purpose of a a corporation and and really there are two parts to the question firstly i suppose what do you see as the responsibility of corporations like j.p morgan in public policy development and implementation and then secondly maybe to give us your perspective on the us economy and society at the moment and what is the medium to long-term outlook as you see it and what will be important for uh us and for the u.s from a policy perspective in order to be successful out into the the medium term yeah so you know it's an interesting question you know people again make this binary shareholder value you're actually forget all that stuff i mean we when i go to ireland i want ireland to respect jp morgan because they do a good job for you because you know we're there in good times and bad times it's not all about our profits we want to be good citizens and trained people and have the diversity that you would like us to have and stuff like that there's nothing wrong with being a citizen of your country and so and shield the value you know when people hear that you know what they hear is repays to short-term profit taking now of course the average ceo wakes up in the morning it's much more about customers employees and i need to come back and stuff like that so the in this very complex world that we have today there is no chance we're going to solve all these problems with just business alone or just government alone you we we need collaboration we need some of our best and brightest working together to solve these kind of things and whether it's infrastructure or health care or carbon taxes or or or immigration and stuff like that and they're all solvable you know and so my view is yeah i think if business could get involved and you know put some you know muscle into it we can get better solutions for for folks and so here you know america is the same thing i think we're probably a little more partisan these days than you guys and it's too much so because people when you listen here it's always like one side versus the other i always tell that doesn't matter me democrat republican what we should say is our kids in industry schools aren't graduating you guys again great lesson which i'm going to study some more and educate you here you guys made school free but you made it successful here you know we make it free sometimes but the kids aren't graduate the skills they need to have a job it's not the free that matters it's the success for the matter so this could and then of course you know their apprenticeship programs and things like that that we do together and so uh yeah all these things are solvable i think business has to play a strong uh integrated part with a civic society and it's just part of our job and it's part of our humanity i mean somehow we're gonna be neighbors somehow you don't care about your neighbor i think that's just a ridiculous way to live your life yeah and i i guess you know um corporations aren't going to do it alone governments are going to do not going to do it alone and individual countries are even blocks are going to aren't going to meet many of these challenges on their own when we look at things like climate change it will take the entire world to respond to something like that that's correct we and we've got some tough problems you know which is anti-nuclear proliferation climate change anti-terrorism having good global growth income inequality yeah we all have to work together to fix these problems and globally jimmy i want to thank you for taking the time to share your perspectives with us today also while i have you i want to give a shout out to your team here in ireland led by karen brian's they do a wonderful job and thank you for your continued interest in ireland well thank you very much i always enjoy my trip so karen's retiring she did a great job but we're gonna continue to build an island and uh thank you for having me folks thank you very much jimmy appreciate it
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