저자: JussiAskola,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏 등 유명 투자자들이 농지를 긍정적으로 언급하며 농지는 과소 조명된 대형 자산군이다. 버핏은 1986년 오마하 인근 400에이커 농지에서 약 10% 수익률을 예상했고 이후 수익이 3배, 가치가 5배 상승했다. 현재 농지 밸류에이션은 높아졌지만 4% 캡레이트와 4% 연 상승률 가정 시 고한자릿수 무레버리지 수익이 가능하다. 발언자는 농지를 금처럼 실물 방어 자산으로 포트폴리오 분산 목적으로 보유하며, 직접 소유·농지 상장주식·크라우드펀딩 세 가지 투자 방법을 설명하고 크라우드펀딩(Farm Together 등)을 추천한다.
다듬은 글
an asset class that gets little coverage here on YouTube is farmland and I've always thought that this is odd because it's a very large asset class it has a great track record and some of the world's most famous investors very often talk very positively about it you might know that Bill Gates is the biggest Farmland owners today in the US then Michael burry which was made famous by The Big Short movie is also a big Farmland investor and he often tweets about it and even ju Buffett is a big fan of the asset class here is what he wrote about his Farmland investments in a previous investor letter to the shareholders of berer hatway in 1986 I purchased a 400 acre Farm located 50 Mi North from Omaha from the FDIC from my estimates I calculated the normalized return from the farm to be done about 10% per year I also thought it was likely that productivity would improve over time and that crop prices would move higher as well both expectations proved out I needed no unusual knowledge or intelligence to conclud clude that the investment had no downside and potentially had substantial upside there would of course be the occasional bad crop and prices would sometime disappoint but so what there would be some unusually good years as well and I would never be under pressure to sell the property now 28 years later the farm has tripled its earnings it's worth five times more than what I paid for it and then he jokes by saying that I still know nothing about farming and recently just made my second visit to the farm so in short rep one Buffett like the defensiveness of Farmland its diversification benefits as well as its reward prospects and in Insight this was one of his best investments of all time on a risk adjusted basis that's because over the past decades Farmland has outperformed most other asset classes including stocks bonds rats gold and others and that's despite also being one of the least volatile asset classes but unfortunately most investors missed out on these returns because until recently it was very difficult for the average investor to invest in Farmland but this has now changed and in today's video we're going to explore how you can also participate in these returns hey everyone this is Yi I'm a cfh order holder but not a financial adviser so make sure to do your own research I run a small investment firm that specializes in re investing in today's video I'm going to explain to you why I am investing in Farmland in 2024 and then I'm also going to discuss three ways how you can participate in this asset class but before I get into it could you please do me a huge favor and click the like button they'll really help me a lot to grow this channel thank you so much in advance so why invest in Farmland in 2024 here I want to start by saying that yes Farmland is today far more expensive than back when one Buffett bought his 400 acres in Omaha but this is also true for all other asset classes the valuation multiples of stocks have expanded interest rates of bonds have decreased and cap rates have also compressed for most commercial real estate as well as farmland therefore the future returns of forland would likely be lower than in the past keep in mind that the 10.5% annual returns that you saw in the chart that I showed earlier this was unleveraged so if you added a mortgage to that that will result in 15 to 20% leverage returns per year for investors I don't think that we're going to see such returns going forward given that fan is today quite a bit price here but I would still expect competitive returns going forward if you buy a well located piece of Farmland at a 4% cap rate and you then add 4% of annual appreciation on top of that that gets you to high single digit total Returns on an unleveraged basis that rate of appreciation will be below historic average and given the persistent imbalance between the demand and supply for Farmland I think that this is a quite conservative assumption so you could still earn decent returns by investing in Farmland but the main reason why I'm invested in it is not to earn huge returns by rather to diversify my portfolio I invest very heavily in rats and stocks as I've discussed in some previous videos and some of these Investments are quite speculative and I want to diversify this portfolio to reduce its risks in case of a major black one event for a lot of people this means investing in gold or even Bitcoin but in my case I prefer to invest in Farmland to serve this purpose in my portfolio in many ways Farmland in my opinion is quite similar to gold in that it's it's a real last that's very stable in value but a big difference for me here is that Farmland is a productive assets that's actually generating a cash yield that's producing something that's essential to our society and so this is why I like Farmland so much and it's also likely the same reason why warm Buffet preferred Farmland as compared to gold as an example as part of my Diversified portfolio I see it as a form of insurance or protection against a major black one event that could crush the rest of my portfolio a good example of such a potential Black Swan could be if China decided to invade Taiwan or if the war in the Middle East or in Europe expanded even further not to be too pessimistic but I think that we are today a lot closer to a third world war than a lot of people seem to imagine no one predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine in 2022 let alone be fighting this barbaric War still two years later and yet here we are and so in that context I think that gold Bitcoin and Farmland in my personal case have a lot to offer to investors as part of a well Diversified portfolio so how can you invest in Farmland in 2024 here you really have three main options the first option is direct ownership this will give you full control over the asset class you won't be reliant on an asset manager you'll get all the diversification benefits of private Farmland but the main issue of direct ownership is that unless you have tens of millions to invest you're not going to be able to build a well Diversified port portfolio by geography weather risk crop type your tenant as well and so you're going to be exposed to a lot of risk that you could have Diversified better if you had invested in Farmland with a larger sum of money another issue of direct ownership is that you likely not an expert in F and investing and so you may not always make the best investment decisions you may end up overpaying you may end up buying the wrong property with poor access to water or any other Factor that's important to consider that you might have forgotten about and so in the end I think that the risk Award of direct ownership is probably the worst of the three options that I'm going to present here then the second way to invest in Farmland is to buy stocks of publicly listed companies that own a lot of Farmland today there are a few Farmland RS in the US one is called Gladstone land another is Farmland Partners there are a few of these companies also abroad in Australia there's one called rural funds group one in Brazil is called Brazil Agro and there are many more in elsewhere I know that there is one in even in the Baltic States called ivl Farmland Partners or something like this but so you the easiest way to invest in Farmland would be to buy shares of these companies and then you own an interest in the Diversified portfolios of these rates it will also give you the benefits of diversification professional and cost-efficient management as well as liquidity but the main downside here is that you're buying stock of a public company which which means that you won't get all the diversification benefits of private Farmland very often these Farmland RS are going to behave like other stocks over the short run and so to give you an example early in the pandemic when the stock market crashed these Farmland rats crashed as well even as the value of Farmland actually remained stable similarly now in recent years these Farmland rates have been under pressure and have lost quite a lot of value because the entire re sector has been out of favor it's been in a bare Market but in the meantime time private Farmland has actually kept on gaining value today more valuable than ever before but you didn't participate in these returns because there was a disconnect between farmland and farmland RS this can be very frustrating to investors especially if the purpose of this Farmland investment in your portfolio was to diversify its risks but for long-term oriented investors this could also present an opportunity to buy Farmland at a discount to its fair value through the public market when valuations are low over the long run you would expect the return of farmland reats and farmland to be closely correlated together because after all these reats really don't own anything else than farmland and then the third way how you can invest in Farmland today is through an online crowdfunding platform in a way this last option is a bit of a hrid between a rate and direct ownership crowdfunding is today the traditional real estate Partnership of the modern world these online crowdfunding platforms pull Capital together from lot of investors using technology to make it more cost efficient and then they invest this capital in Farmland properties for you and so what's great about it is that you get the real diversification benefits of private Farmland but you still also enjoy professional management and these platforms make it easier for you to diversify your portfolio as compared to if you were buying Farmland privately directly yourself but there are downsides here as well and the first main downside is that you won't have liquidity these Partnerships typically have a 10year term or even longer and therefore unless you have a very long-term Horizon these Partnerships probably aren't suitable for you then secondly there also investment minimums here typically of 15,000 some of these platforms may also require you to be an accredited investor and so these may be limiting factors for some investors and then the third thing here to consider is that they also management fees just like in the case of RS and so you need to make sure that the manager of your crowfunding platform is skillful enough to First cover their fees but also well aligned for shareholders because these management fees can at times lead to conflicts of interest and so today there are a lot of these crowdfunding platforms that specialize in Farmland the three biggest that I know of are Farm together a Trader and farm funer I've myself previously invested through form together because I know their founder I think that they are very skillful and well align with investors they're highly experienced in forland investing and what I like about them is that they also personal invest in the deals that they offer on their platforms and then secondly typically the Farmland that they will invest in is higher yielding and has some value add potential to give you an example here currently on their platform they're offering a deal with a 99.2% cash yield it goes without saying that higher yield goes with higher risk but again these people are highly experienced they are very selective about their Investments they co-invest with you and then they allow you to easily diversify your portfolio fio across their platform in case you want to learn more about this 99.2% yielding deal I'll put a link to it in the description of this video I think you need to create an account to view all the details but it takes just a few minutes so me personally I invest in Farmland by combining crowd funding with public listed rates and in my opinion this is the best way to invest in Farmland in 2024 now if you want to access my entire Investment Portfolio feel free to join hiard landlord which is my R newsletter for twoe free trial I'll put a link to it in the description of this video I've said this before but this is a real twoe free trial meaning that you won't be charge anything the force 14 days if you don't want to continue you can simply cancel you won't be charge anything you'll still gain access to my portfolio for these 14 days so if you want to come just for that trial period that's perfectly fine with me and then finally once more if you could please click the like button that'll really help me a lot to grow this Channel and produce this content for you I appreciate it a lot and see at my next one bye-bye
댓글 0