저자: JamieDimon—제목기준출연자,본문은영상제작자해설위주 · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 CEO 다이먼이 채권시장 균열과 패닉 가능성을 경고했다는 배경을 제시하며, 채권시장 불안 속에서도 살아남거나 성장할 수 있는 3개 종목(NBIS, PATH, TWLO)을 소개한다. 근거로 NBIS의 ARR 700% 성장(3.1억 달러), PATH의 현금흐름과 순현금, TWLO의 매출 가속과 영업이익률 개선 등을 든다. 미국 2분기 GDP 전망 3.8%, 장기금리 상승과 베어 스티프닝을 언급한다. 다만 영상 말미 광고성 멘트가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
You are going to see a crack in the bond market. Okay? It is going to happen. And I tell this to my regulators, some of who in this room, I'm telling you, it's going to happen. And you're going to panic. I'm not going to panic. We'll be fine. We'll probably make more money. And then some of my friends will tell me that we're that we cause we like crisis because it's good for JP Morgan Chase.
Not really. So the money moving around the world is a h 100red trillion a day. the money moving around the investments, you know, this is stocks, bonds, corporates, governments, derivatives, credit, you name it, FX, sovereign debt around the world, 30 trillion. The people who set those long-term rates are those people, including you in the room.
It's not the Federal Reserve. So, if you look at economic history, bad things happen. When those tectonic plays shift, it's very hard to see in real time. The bond market is practically shouting and the latest economic figures from May are cranking up the volume. Even with global trade worries brewing, the US economy is proving surprisingly tough.
We've seen manufacturing and services get stronger, job creation holds steady, and predictions for second quarter GDP shoot up to a healthy 3.8%. But there's a flip side to this strength. Hopes for the Fed to cut interest rates are quickly disappearing. This means long-term Treasury yields are climbing and we're seeing signs of a bare steepening in the yield curve.
A signal that things might not be as stable as they seem on the surface. Enter Jaime Diamond, the outspoken CEO of JP Morgan Chase, who isn't holding back. He's openly warned that a crack in the bond market is on its way, and when it happens, most people will panic. But not him. Diamond believes that too much regulation has made the market less liquid.
And when financial pressure hits, like it did with Credit Swiss or First Republic, the effects can ripple through the entire financial system. For him, it's not a question of if a breakdown will occur, but when. And those cracks could eventually lead to a bigger economic downturn. But here's an interesting twist.
When the bond market starts to fracture, not all stocks tumble. In fact, a select few not only weather these financial storms, but actually flourish in the ensuing chaos. In today's discussion, we're going to spotlight three such companies. These are businesses well placed to gain from market disruptions underpinned by solid financials or writing powerful long-term trends.
Let's kick things off with our first pick, Nebius Group, ticker symbol NBIS. This company isn't just riding the AI wave, it's actively building the very infrastructure that supports it. Nebius is one of the fastest growing players in the AI infrastructure sector. Even after an impressive 80% surge in the last 2 months, the market still hasn't fully grasped the enormous potential unfolding here.
Did you know that Nebius Group, despite its rapid growth, has only recently begun to fully capitalize on its software monetization potential, which is expected to bring in significantly higher margins than its current infrastructure services. In April 2025, Nebius reported an astonishing 700% year-over-year jump in its annualized revenue run rate, hitting $310 million, up from a mere $90 million at the close of last year.
This isn't just fast growth. It's hypers scale acceleration. The company itself now projects an ARR of $750 million to $1 billion by the end of the year. If we take the midpoint of that guidance, Nebius would be trading at just 9.1 times its forward ARR, which is significantly lower than its peers in the AI cloud space, many of whom are trading at 14 to 18 times.
This gap screams opportunity. What's powering this incredible growth? Pure unadulterated demand. As AI native startups, cutting edge research labs, and large enterprise clients desperately try to get their hands on high performance GPUs, Nibbius has dramatically increased its capacity across New Jersey, Kansas City, and even Iceland.
It's drawing comparisons to the early days of AWS, and for good reason. With backing from Nvidia and a feature in Semi analysis's GPU cluster Max Gold tier, Nbius is building serious credibility where it counts. True, this path requires a lot of capital. The company plans to invest $2 billion in capital expenditures this year, but it's a calculated expense.
The aim is to reach break even by the latter half of 2025 and achieve Ebit margins of 20 to 30% over the next few years. What's even more exciting is that the real upside could come from software monetization, which is just beginning, but promises far higher margins and consistent revenue. In a world where bond market instability could shake up traditional investment portfolios, Nebius stands out as a hyperrowth engine directly connected to the very core of AI's infrastructure and it might just be getting started.
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Check them out. They might just change how you grow your wealth. Next up is a company quietly operating at the intersection of automation and AI, yet it remains largely overlooked by the market. We're talking about UPath, Inc. ticker symbol path. While it might not be grabbing headlines, it's certainly making waves where it matters most in its execution, cash flow, and now it's accelerating growth.
After a huge 85% drop from its initial public offering highs, expectations for UPath were at rock bottom heading into 2025. But that's often exactly where hidden opportunities lie. In its recently released fiscal Q12026 report, UIPath not only surpassed expectations, but also slightly raised its guidance for the full year.
This signals that management sees stronger times ahead, even if they're being cautious on paper. Did you know that OEPath's automation platform has processed trillions of transactions globally, highlighting the immense scale of its impact on enterprise operations? What makes OPath stand out? For starters, its agogenic automation platform is gaining serious traction.
It's no longer just about robotic process automation. Now we're talking about AI agents that can learn, adapt, and make decisions, empowering companies to automate complex workflows across all their digital systems. This isn't just a small improvement. It's a major turning point. Significant new partnerships with Microsoft and Google Cloud further validate the path ahead.
Financially, UPath is incredibly strong. It boasts over $1.5 billion in cash, no debt, and robust free cash flow, projected to reach $385 million to $450 million annually over the next year. At current prices, investors are paying just 17 times forward free cash flow, positioning it as one of the most undervalued software stocks in the market right now, especially considering that revenue growth could accelerate to the mid- teens by the latter half of the year.
While some might see it as just value tech, smart investors will recognize a company with reliable cash flow, improving fundamentals, and a product strategy designed for the AIdriven enterprise. In a market made nervous by rising rates and bond market volatility, UEPath offers something rare, stability, significant upside, and crucial strategic relevance.
This could be the best time in years to seriously consider Path. Finally, rounding out our list is a stock that has been quietly reshaping its entire business model, setting itself up for a massive AI powered comeback, Twilio, Inc., ticker symbol, Two. After years of instability and an 80% plunge from its peak, this communications giant is now showing clear signs of revitalization.
And for those paying attention, the potential for upside could be substantial. Twilio just reported its third consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue with first quarter fiscal year 2025 revenue climbing 12% year-over-year and non-GAAP operating income jumping an impressive 34%. Even more importantly, its core communications business, which accounts for over 90% of its total revenue, is not only growing but also expanding its margins, now reaching a solid 25.3%.
At the same time, its long struggling segment business finally showed signs of stability, growing 1% after many quarters of decline. Interestingly, Twilio's flexible communications platform was instrumental in helping many businesses rapidly shift to remote work during the pandemic, showcasing its adaptability and crucial role in digital transformation.
What's fueling this resurgence? It's Twilio's bold shift towards AIEL innovation. From introducing Conversation Relay, a toolkit for building AI powered voice agents to deploying voice intelligence tools that automate compliance and customer engagement, Twilio is embedding artificial intelligence directly into the communication backbone of digital businesses.
And with partnerships like 11 Labs bringing over 1,000 voices in 40 languages to its platform, this isn't just flashy technology, it's truly functional. Twilio is also delivering on the financial front. Management is targeting operating margins of 21 to 22% by fiscal year 2027, aiming for $3 billion in cumulative free cash flow and expecting double-digit revenue growth to resume in fiscal year 2026.
With a total addressable market projected to reach $158 billion by 2028, Twilio is in an excellent position to capture the next wave of spending on personalized AIdriven customer experiences. Yet, despite all this, the stock remains undervalued. With current market consensus still pricing and only high singledigit growth, there's considerable room for a significant rerating once management consistently demonstrates its execution.
Analysts currently see an upside potential of 85% with a price target of $216. And given the momentum Twilio is building, that estimate might even be conservative. In a turbulent market shaped by rising yields and underlying economic weaknesses, Twilio stands out as a compelling transformation story with genuine momentum and a clear AIdriven path to profitability.
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