저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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한줄결론: 가치투자 원칙(좋은 기업을 합리적 가격에, 복리 사고, 불필요한 IPO 회피)을 강조하며 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 투자 기준: 다년간 성장하는 기업의 조건으로 가격과 내재가치 사이의 큰 괴리(가치-가격 갭)를 꼽음. 좋은 기업을 싸게 사는 것이 이상적이나 보통은 합리적 가격에 좋은 기업을 사는 전략을 택함. 재무 지표: 연차보고서에서 마진, ROE, 성장률 등 핵심 비율을 먼저 확인하고, 특히 매출채권 회수 기간(거래 조건)을 중시함. 높은 ROE와 강한 거래 조건의 조합을 좋은 신호로 봄. PER 평가: PER은 과대평가된 지표로, 마진에 따라 왜곡되므로 개별 종목보다 지수 수준에서 시장 상황을 보는 데 유용하다고 함. 반대로 PBR은 과소평가된 지표라고 지적. 인내와 실수: 과거 HDFC은행을 40루피대에 팔아 큰 복리 기회를 놓쳤던 경험을 회고. 아우 등 보유 종목을 일찍 판 것도 아쉬움으로 언급. 사기꾼(crook) 경영진과는 거래하지 말라는 교훈을 강조. IPO: IPO 자체를 레드플래그로 보며 IPO 설명회에는 가지 않음. 신생기업은 주로 학습 대상으로 보고 투자는 신중히 하라고 조언. 생애 조언: 20대는 이해하지 못하는 것에 투자하지 말고, 30대 이후엔 직접 투자 공부에 시간이 없다면 펀드 매니저에게 맡기는 것도 방법이라고 언급. 복리 사고(mental compounding)를 강조하며, 과거 45년간의 복리 성과는 예측이 아니라 이미 일어난 결과라고 설명. 추천 도서: 필립 피셔 『Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits』, 버핏 관련 『Snowball』, 최근 전략서 『Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick』. 리스크: 발언 중 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측이나 매수·매도 권유는 없음.
다듬은 글
What's the first thing that you notice in a company's annual report? Key financial ratios. I straight go there and see two three ratios uh margin, return on equity, growth. In fact, I am quite fascinated by one thing that what are the terms of trade like in how many days he collects the money? Which stock has taught you the most about patience?
Which is this and uh impatience is the bank. I sold it in uh you know you must have heard I think it was just about a year or less than a year I bought it 40 not even a year and I sold it 52 53 because of some information from uh somewhere and information was right by my interpretation was wrong when you think of IPOs what's the biggest red flag for you
IPO itself is a red flag IPO but IPOs people get excited yeah excit that's the that's another problem even now I don't go to any IPO meet one of the Best learning I had from Buffett is that don't our guest today is an icon of icons truly a pioneer when it comes to shaping India's equity culture. So let's not waste any more time because we have so much to learn from him.
Let me introduce to you Mr. Ramdio Agarval, co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services and of course the creator of the iconic wealth creation studies. Thank you so much for joining us on grow sir. It's such a privilege to have you with us. So what's the one trait that a multibagger stock always has without exception?
There's a price value gap. The price has to be so much cheaper than underlying value potential value. Would you rather buy a great business at a fair price or a fair business at a great price today? Yeah. So as I said 25% it is not a fair business. It has to be a great business. Very good business rather very good business at reasonable price.
I don't I'm not look I mean if I can get it very cheap of course that's my luck but generally you're not going to get it cheap. So I'm looking for great business at reasonable price. In your glorious career what has been your best day at work? Every day is a great day actually. I mean I actually love every day.
I see my diary at once I get up in the morning I just generally see bumar I'm meeting but today is as good as there are no milestone days that you remember milestone days I actually don't I mean except for my CA passing that was a big milestone that changed like lot of things I mean I crossed the hump kind of thing my you my academic thing was over and I started a journey of uh uh becoming businessman so yeah but u I And then of course you get married and those kind of you get a son.
So those are the big days but uh generally for the as far as the business side is concerned every day is a good day. I mean and actually the best day is a day on which I'm meeting four five very interesting people you know when particularly when I meet a new management or new business of of which I have no idea what are the economics how it is being done say a chipsm company I don't know I've seen only first time a chip chips or I met yesterday a reality company first time I meeting a reality company not that they I could not meet but I never met a reality company but here I was very surprised uh by opportunity.
So I went and met and that was a great so yesterday I remember it was a great day for me. The worst day that you remember in your career? Worst day. I in business- wise. Business. Business wise. Yeah. Some some of the days like when the hashamea collapse happened because we were young that time and suddenly markets were closed and [clears throat] market crashed and you know the headlines were there.
We were also impacted. But that time my draw down was 67%. [clears throat] And I had all the bank shares in my portfolio. So I I I went where that actually the explosion happened. So that was bit uh scary but uh see I was never leveraged. So it it gives psychological the draw down steep draw down gives you that uh you know that uh depressing feeling for few hours but that's it because we I I never walked into a financial trouble.
Never never ever in last whatever 35 40 years of my business we were always clear as far as financially uh it was never an issue business was bad someday we incurred losses uh and this kind of crash happened 92 2008 those are few kind of a bad days even this I was bit shocked the day on which this uh lockdown was announced and I got stuck in uh MB valley of course it was a beautiful place and I had good friends I learned and uh playing golf out there out of this.
So uh but still for a day or two you feel very frustrated. What's the first thing that you notice in a company's annual report? Key financial ratios. I straight go there and see two three ratios uh margin the uh return on equity growth and uh in fact I have quite fascinated by one thing that in how what are the terms of trade like in how many days he collects the money.
Say if you are a consumer company you are selling say diapers and diapers you're saying 1 th000 crores worth of diapers you are selling but are you getting your money back from the system in 10 days 5 days or 50 days 90 days now you are as profitable as me I collect my money on the same day and you collect after 100 days that makes a huge difference in my mind high roe with a very strong terms of trade that gives me that boss it looks solid
both fabulous insight Thank you for that. Uh what is the most overrated metric in investing according to you? P why? Because see oh it's crazy because if your margin is thin then P multiple is like literally infinite and if margin is fat for some reason extraordinary earnings and all then P looks low and that gives you sense that it is very cheap company.
No it might be the most expensive company. So I think uh for that matter any ratio is like uh very risky but P is being used uh like uh almost like a the benchmark for every everything. So you know when you are looking at uh the P particularly when you go to individual stock then it can be very very misleading when you go to index level then it's a very diversified broad it gives a really good sense of where the market is like if it is 22 times uh nifty P that gives some sense what it means for the market but when you say 22 P for a company I don't know what you're talking about
so that's the overrated metric what is the underrated metric in investing price to book nobody looks at balance sheet Very interesting. Which stock has taught you the most about patience? Which this Maharashtra Suda you know and uh impatience is the HDC bank. I sold it in uh you know you must have heard I think it was just about a year or less than a year.
I borrowed 40 not even a year and I sold it 52 53 because of some information from somewhere and information was right by my interpretation was wrong and hence I lost the I had five lakh 50,000 shares then I mean it made that must have been four five% of my portfolio at that point or maybe even bigger so uh that compounding you see when you miss out on a compounding story early stage that's the biggest loss
I mean to miss out on HDFC bank in 96 six I mean when it was 40 bucks from 40 bucks today it is it is uh I don't know how much it is it is maybe 10,000 bucks because uh the price itself is 2,000 there must be multiple splits and right issues and all so it must be almost like at least 8 10,000 so that kind of thing you missed
uh what's been harder for you uh on your investment journey is it buying right or sitting tight I never had like I'm I'm good I'm happy with what I did you know because you see because it's all circumstances you know when you uh move so uh I mean for me buying selling is very easy in a sense that once I take this then I'm clear about what and I don't look back if I sold something at 100 and goes to thousand fine I mean like uh we sold I mean I many times you get to see that you are selling something uh under price but uh the stocks are held in fund or something you have to close the fund and [clears throat] move on.
So, uh yeah, I mean I have uh I I we sold lot of AU. I mean 30% of AU for on average we might have sold for 2,000 2,500. Today is 60,000. So, but I could see it is a compounding machine and yet we sold it. So, that's that feels sad but it's part of the [clears throat] deal. I mean that's how the fund is structured.
So, what's the one investing mistake that taught you more than it lost you? You know one of one or two mistakes which we committed in the sense that uh you never go with the crook particularly if you know see if you don't know then it's fine when you know this guy doesn't have good value system he's a crook mother of certified crook if you know first thing is if you know don't don't do it however cheap it is and if you come to know later after you bought it is quite possible you thought he's an honest guy but turns out to be a croak then you run from there because he's going to go to the hell and he's going to drag view also there.
Mhm. Uh when you think of IPOs, what's the biggest red flag for you? IPO itself is a red flag. IPO but IPOs people get excited. Yeah. Exact. That's the that's another problem you know I mean till about even now I don't go to any IPO meet. See some of the things are very interesting. See new business new businesses come uh and what is happening in India very funny is that companies are very young very young means they barely make profit any coming see typically what is the journey of a company about 99% of the companies they die out in first 10 years or they get marginalized so they don't remain a company okay they don't exist so 99% company they die out from zero date to first 10 years few companies they scale up.
Okay, those company have the right to go for a public market. So basically successful birth of a company is happens between 10 to 15 years of a company. Okay. When the so those companies are coming to the market at that age or maybe even earlier 9 years 8 years they're coming. So you are literally getting what what would go to private equity you're getting in public market.
So those newer business models all the digital based uh companies or uh uh typically new business models which are coming up uh in in any field those are interesting to attend and not so much to buy I would still hesitate to buy but to learn the story what's happening there okay so if you had one lak rupees today and you were 20 years old where would you put that money
then one lakh rupee at the age of I mean The age is a problem for right now it is not a problem but at the age of 20 see you don't know anything so I would I would not do one of the best learning I had from Buffett is that don't do anything till you understand and that applies not only to investing more so in investing but every walk of life don't do it just don't do it you'll be very safe at the age of 20 what you don't know uh is that a lot of things so when you see value price gap you you will have a what do you call limited understanding of it small small companies you will find and uh when you do that you enjoy a lot my first company I got the information I mean I could understand the company because the balance sheet and some premier league uh news was given to me by my roommate in the host he was auditing that company so he gave me all the balance sheet and uh what kind of money and all they make I could see that I bought it 15 bucks and uh in a year two years time it became 45 bucks that kind of so you know and I was actually 21 22 at that time 79 80 I was there 22 so those kind of a breaks will happen
okay and one lakh where would you invest it if you were 30 years old 30 years so it all depend see when we started our career we had if you wanted to do investing of your savings there was no way to go to MF and all there was no MF okay I had to do direct stocks but today that is not the issue if I want want to make a career in investing in the sense that I want to learn the game of investing myself or uh I want to become investment professional then you should go to the stock market and figure out what is the value what is the price what is the earnings growth what is the roe what is the momentum this I mean it's a full-time job and it has become very competitive so there are guys the price is determined by the people who know a lot so if you are young and you don't have that much time and edge and passion why to bother about go and give your money to one of the fund managers and be happy with 18 20% return.
Yeah. Do the hard work. Okay. So final couple of questions. So um three books every investor should read. Three books. So I would I we always give these books to them. So one is that common stocks uncommon profits by Phil Fisher. That's a classic. Uh second is that uh snowball by of Buffett. So that I'm telling you from my perspective.
I mean people have different philosophies. So they can pick up different books. U so Buffett, Phil Fisher and uh I would suggest more recent book but strategy beyond hockey stick that book is terrific but maybe not for the beginner. Yeah but these are books there are tons of books you know uh you can learn.
See every book will teach you one thing. The beauty of the books is that every prof in US whosoever wrote it they have only one idea and they sell for $25 to you. So you have to grab that idea from the book and move on like Michael Porto he got that five forces right and he's spinning year after year various books and all but you got to get that five forces thing into you and use it everywhere.
So you have to get the frameworks and for getting the frameworks from one book you'll get one or you are lucky you'll get two. So you have to move on and you'll get if you read one book you'll get reference to the next and then next and then I'll ask you'll ask me I'll ask somebody else. So that's how you and I don't want anybody to give me book gift unless he has read and he thinks that Ramsh should read it.
You know what people do any book they send they themselves are not read it. So I think the best thing is to read a book you love it. Same book you keep gifting so that you know why you're gifting to somebody. Yeah. Uh one piece of advice you've passed on to uh your son as an investor or for life. One piece of advice say important.
Yeah. So he he's smart. He's much better than me at his age. Okay. Uh I think not advice but I taught him at the age of 11 or 12 power of compounding. How to do compounding? Mental compounding. Compounding. Everybody can do one calculator. But when you are in the real life, you are not carrying calculator with hand.
You know mentally you should be equipped like your tables. If you know the tables, you can do all the transactions. Indians are very smart in that. But when you don't know even table, you don't know by chance plus and minus also. I mean you can't add up say three numbers 25, 30 and 45. I mean then there's a problem in you carrying out any kind of a commerce.
So uh so I think one of the biggest thing I would say that for the all the early uh investors and those who are making please understand mental compounding models which is very simple but nobody wants to have that compounded thinking what is important is to learn the compounding and have compounded thinking index that one 50,000 or three lakhs I'm doing nothing I don't have any foresight it's just for 45 years it has compounded 15%, I'm saying 5 years more 15%, it will go to 1 lakh 60,000 and another 5 years it will go to 3 lakh 20,000 three lakhs so from 80,000 you start it will be 3 lakh 20,000 I'm saying only three lakhs so there's no prediction it's just a compounding of whatever has happened in last 45 years but since people don't know compounding they find it like how can it happen
thank you so much sir words of wisdom not just about investing but just how to live our lives more fruitfully and be good human beings. Thank you so much for joining us on grow investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the risk disclosure documents carefully before investing in equity shares, derivatives, mutual fund and or other instruments traded on the stock exchanges.
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