저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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9/29~10/3 주간은 JOLTS·ADP·실업수당·ISM·비농업고용(NFP) 등 고용지표가 핵심 촉매. 트럼프-민주당 회동 결과 및 10/1 정부 셧다운 리스크가 단기 변동성 요인. 고용지표 컨센서스(평균 약 5.5만, 3개월 평균 2.9만 상회 기대)는 이미 낙관 반영. 셧다운 시 BLS 발표가 지연될 수 있으며 이는 불확실성을 키워 낙관 경제학자들을 비관으로 돌릴 수 있음. 엔비디아는 장기 강세 콜옵션으로 보유 유지 중이며, 금리 하락 수혜주를 하방 헤지로 언급.
다듬은 글
This is going to be one hell of a crazy week of catalysts. There are two types of catalysts we've got to pay attention to this week. Number one, we already know it. Jobs. Number two, Donn markets right now enthusiastic because Donald Trump is going to meet with Democrats. The meeting is supposed to hold or take place at noon California time, which means the market will really be closed before we actually get updates from Trump.
However, this creates a short-term risk factor because if Donald Trump sandbags this meeting, we'll hear about it after the market is closed. I expect markets to temporarily sell off because the likelihood of a government shutdown occurring will skyrocket if this meeting goes poorly. Now, there are two ways for Trump to go here.
One way Donald Trump can go is Donald Trump could say, "Hey, you know, we're going to uh or we had a great negotiation. Uh we've got, you know, a framework of a deal. We're just waiting on signatures." Markets will probably rocket on that. People will love that. The other way it'll go, which I actually think is more likely, is Donald Trump will come out and say something like, "Well, I tried to meet him, but the Democrats, all they want to do is spend, spend, spend.
It's like Russia, Russia, Russia. That's all they want to do." And so, you'll get some kind of bashing of the Dems. And tomorrow is the last day of September. Government shutdown is set for midnight. tomorrow night, which would be October 1st at midnight. So, if we get bad news in the second half of the day today, that's going to get priced into markets tomorrow and will probably be down until the government shutdown is resolved.
Now, usually government shutdowns are a fantastic buy the dip opportunity. Notice that we have about a 63% chance of a shutdown priced in on Poly Market by October 1st. that rises to about 75% if you uh yeah if you go look at the whole year. The bigger issue though, what matters so much more is actually what the Treasury market is paying attention to this week.
If you think about a government shutdown, you should be thinking, "Oh, well, you know, our debt expense is going to go up. That's going to be bad for bonds, right?" Yeah. But then why are bonds up today? Mind you, bond yields trade in inverse to their price. So when bond yields are down, bond values are up, right?
Okay, you know that. So anyway, bond yields down today. Why are they down today? In my opinion, it has to do with the most critical second catalyst, jobs. Okay, this is this is absolutely everything we're talking about. talked about it in the alpha report last week. We'll be strategizing and playing AB scenarios with course members uh tomorrow especially because that'll be the eve of ADP and we'll do that again on Thursday on the eve of the BLS data.
But here are the catalysts that you got to pay attention to. So tomorrow we are going to get Jolts at uh 7 a.m. So the market will be open. We'll get Jolts data. Usually this is a nothing burger. This is the job opening labor turnover survey. Usually a nothing burger. We're looking at 7.2 2 million jobs which is roughly in line with the 7181 we got previously nothing burger not a big deal not worried at all about jolts really again the biggest catalyst over the next 24 hours is just what happens with with Trump in this meeting I gave my opinion in the course member liveream uh but uh you know you know which way it's going to break so keep in mind and and just briefly if you did not see the Washington Post piece last week it gives you the Donald Trump vault playbook.
The Donald Trump vault playbook is, hey, we want to shrink the size of government. And this is where a lot of Americans look and go, yeah, I mean, that's what I voted for. I want smaller government. I don't want, you know, more big government. I like, you know, I had my mastermind this weekend and uh Ross Gerber was so generous to to come visit uh and let us host it at his office.
Shout out, Ross. Thank you. Um, you know, he had had such a like there was one moment where he's like, "Remember what Donald Trump's POV is? Fire all the IRS agents. Donald Trump is sick of getting audited and so are a lot of wealthier Americans. So you go start firing the IRS agents. That's part of the MO of the Trump admin.
So in my opinion, that increases the odds of a government shutdown, right? That moves then the catalyst to can the job market save us? And there's a trend that we're on obviously that you know about not only the six-month unemployed data or some of the longerterm issues, but there's a trend in the actual data that we're going to be getting this week as well.
So, let's talk about that. Uh, mind you, uh, as this this happens frequently, but this weekend, I think I got like four emails of people that are like, "Kevin, I'm trying to sign up for the course, but but I can't. it it it says the price is like, you know, uh like many thousands of dollars or whatever.
And I'm like, "Yeah, the coupon expired." And so I was getting so many emails. I'm like, "All right." So I just briefly extended it. This happens every single time it feels like when there's an expiration, but like I need to change the price and I need to raise it. So we'll do that. But right now, I did extend daddy's back a little bit.
Uh but there was actually one person they emailed. They're like, "I I can't sign up. The price isn't matched." And then they emailed they got like an automatic reply. Hey, you left something in your cart and they replied back to that and they're like, "Dude, I know. I'm I'm trying to get the coupon." And I'm like, "Bro, it expired." They're like, "Anyway, I felt bad." So, I extended for them.
Um, but anyway, okay. So, here's the the data. Okay. Uh, so ADP October 1st, this is Wednesday. This is technically first day of government shutdown. I think it's going to happen. uh first day of government shutdown and uh we're looking at 50,000 for ADP. This is actually roughly in line with what we had last time.
We had 54,000 last time. So 54,000 or 50,000. This is good. If we could get that on the private survey, hey, that's fantastic. I'm a big fan. Uh that would be wonderful. No, no big issues here. Uh I don't know that ADP is going to be our weakness this week. Something that you could do, and this is a spoiler, if you want to have an idea of how the job numbers are going to come out this week, you need to watch what Donald Trump truths.
I think Donald Trump gets heads up insight into the job numbers. And usually when the numbers are going to be bad, Donald Trump starts bitching about it before the numbers actually come out. I'll obviously be covering the numbers live and everything, but but that like that's my assumption. So, uh, then, uh, what we have, you know, that's the private labor report.
If that rolls over, it's a really big issue because it's our private survey. It comes from an actual payrolls company. And if that rolls over, it's going to be weird because, you know, last month we we popped back up and we're waiting for this job data to really confirm a soft landing. This to me this is a big moment because our jobs trends have been reset way low and we are like the trend has basically done this beep.
We're only creating 29,000 BLS jobs on average over the last 3 months. That's horrible. Over the last 4 months I think we're at like 35k. Horrible. As JPAL says we're below the break even rate. It's a bad trend. The question is, did we just adjust down because of immigration and now we're going to kind of go flat and kind of ride up again?
This week is a huge moment to tell us is the fall stopping. It's not to to guarantee soft landings in the bag, everything's fine. It's to to give us faith that the crash of jobs is stopping. That's why this week is so critical. Now the BLS jobs data uh that we actually get on Friday which before that will get the ISMs we'll get ISM manufacturing prices paid new orders on Wednesday uh you know big deal people take that for for what it's worth.
You've got uh initial jobless claims expecting to be relatively benign again 225 uh you know this has been what jobless claims have been for a very very long period of time. Wow. Hold on a sec. I just saw Robin Hood absolutely crushing it here. Up 7% today. Really incredible enthusiasm here. I mean, honestly, a lot of their sports betting stuff hasn't even been priced in.
We actually did a bit of a fundamental analysis on Robin Hood this morning. Uh we have a uh we have a tab in the um in the course member stream. You can't see these tabs unless you're a course member, but we have a a new stock tab and and we put our fundamental analysis on here. Uh, and this goes down and I link my research and all this sort of stuff, but uh, it automatically shows you like the price and and Kevin's peg ratio.
So like where Kevin thinks the peg is going versus like a public market peg. It's kind of a cool new feature we added for course members. And so like every day as we're doing fundamental analysis, we're adding to it. It's it's so cool. Uh, I love technology. I always just nerd out over it. Anyway, uh, about the BLS data.
So BLS we are looking for a Friday payrolls report of 50,000. Now remember the prior read was 22,000. Now we're looking at 50,000. Let's see how many surveys we have on that. We have uh 58 estimates. So this is a pretty big survey right now. We have 58 estimates. The lowest estimate is -20,000. There is only one economist that thinks we're going to go negative.
Only one. So this this explains why the market is moving the way it is. The vast majority of banks and institutions think we are going to get a positive labor report. So the odds of us getting based on number of economists, the odds of us getting a negative labor report very very low. Like it's not going to happen.
I'll show you the standard deviation chart here in a moment. standard deviation is set to come in at 23.39. Okay, so we're looking at an average estimate of 55.4 minus 23.39, which means even if we had a miss of two standard deviations, which you know puts us at what like a 5% chance or whatever uh or or to one side would be I guess be a 2 and a halfish percent chance off the top of my head here.
Um you know 2 and 12% chance I guess of missing two standard deviations. Well, yeah. I mean, I guess you missed two standard deviations either way. So, call it a 5% chance of that of missing by two standard deviations. You're still positive. So, the the trade this week is going to be around are people's expectations going to be right or wrong that we're going to be so positive.
This is the distribution of estimates. I'm actually covering up the one guy who's so negative. Look at this. There's the one guy that's like super negative over here. And as you can see, almost all of the estimates are that we're going to get a rebound. There's our average right here. This is the median right here.
And you can see there are a lot of estimates here. 75,000, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100, 110. Like the base case here from markets, I'm going to close the store. Base case for markets is we are going up with jobs. And so think about what that means for a moment. That means one of the reasons why we're seeing market as much market enthusiasm as we are right now is because the bankers and the economists are like, "No, you don't need to be worried.
Everything is fine." Uh so let's write that down. Uh let's go pop that into here. So um consensus is rebound. uh and a beat above the 3-month average of 29K and beat above 4mon average of about 35K. Right? So this is very very clear like the the you know the up this means it's probably already to some extent we already been priced uh suggest to some extent some of this uh enthusiasm is already priced in.
What's really not priced in here is a miss uh to the downside uh broadly markets enthused except for this one guy over here. That one guy, one person. Uh all right. Well, I I mean they should buy some lottery tickets if they're right. But um yeah, I mean that's that's this week. This is a critical critical week.
more so than last week. Last week was like we got a little bit of Fedsp speak and honestly we had nothing around that Fed speak. This is huge. Uh in addition, we'll get S&P numbers on the third. We'll get ISM services on the 3. Uh but this is jobs week hands down. You will get challenger job cuts on uh Thursday.
Challenger job cuts. Nobody pays attention to that. Like nobody cares. So, tomorrow Jolts ADP Wednesday, Challenger Thursday, jobs Friday. Mix into that some S&P, you know, uh um ISM numbers and PMI numbers and yay, that's the week. But boy, looking at that chart, seeing the consensus of pricing, dang.
I can actually throw off the caddies, I think. Yeah, there we go. Uh look at this. Jolts. What is that? Uh, Jolt job openings. Yep. That gives you the job openings number 80P 50K. Yep. ISM. Whatever. Jobless claims 223. Whatever. 50 right here on non-farm payrolls. I mean, that's cute. Cute little catalyst window we can kind of throw up uh while we're we're doing vids.
So, yeah. I mean, this is this is a big deal this week. I get it. There's a lot of there's a lot of enthusiasm in part because look at what the consensus is now. One of the ones that's really winning today is is Nvidia in addition to Robin Hood. Uh Robin Hood is just absolutely dominating right now.
You know, valuations obviously stretch, but people are so excited about the products and I actually think I don't want to get too much into what we talked about with the alphabet this morning, but let's just put it this way. Some of the new stuff they have coming hasn't shown up in the earnings reports yet.
just saying it's uh that's that's when we do our fundamental analysis. We go into the the actual financial statements and we're like, "Oh, this is still coming." But anyway, Nvidia really popping off here. Nvidia you have to think of as your boom time stock. It's one of the reasons I haven't personally sold off my Nvidia shares.
I have a ton of Nvidia shares and uh what's really remark and I bought these back in like September my statement says September of 2022 and we sent out a you know course member alert for that back then. Uh, of course, and I'm going to send an alert when I sell Nvidia, but like I'm a I feel like I'm a hair trigger on selling Nvidia because, you know, if we go into a recession, Nvidia is going to tank and I got so many freaking tendies.
I want the tendies, you know? I want the chicken tenders. I want to have some food. But, uh, Nvidia is is kind of a call option on the boom continuing. Think about that phrase there for a moment. Nvidia as a call option on American GDP. They're the most insane pricing power business you could ever think of, bringing over 50% to the bottom line.
72 cents of every dollar is gross profit, bro. Like, they don't even make the damn chips, dude. They're kind of just like like if I could summarize Nvidia to my child. Okay, if I asked Jack, maybe next time I ask him, I go, "Jack, what do you think Nvidia does?" He'd be like, "Oh, they make really good uh, you know, uh, graphic cards." And I'd be like, "Wrong.
You have to match your subject to your verb." Who knows what that's from. No. Um, what they're really like is kind of like this. Oh, you guys need graphic cards. All right, hold on. Hey, Taiwan, we need graphic cards. Ship them over. They get shipped over. We got your graphic cards. Here you go. And the other people are like, "Ah, thanks." And Nvidia's like, "I'll take 50% to the bottom line.
Thank you very much." Like, dude, that's that's insane pricing power. Now obviously I'm being a little facicious here because we have an incredible software infrastructure around these chips. CUDA, we have incredible I think Nvidia is an ADAS play, right? Like I think they're the next Tesla FSD play.
You Tesla obviously has the robo taxi and Elon factor. Uh but uh ADAS at Nvidia is a huge play that is really not priced in at all. Uh, and then of course, you know, again, I'm not trying to minimize what Nvidia does, but they don't make the chips. So, um, it's really incredible. And, and to me, that's that's your upside hedge is Nvidia.
And your downside hedge to some extent are stocks that should do well in a lower interest rate regime. Uh, and, you know, is something that you're trying to play out over the next 10 years. So that's why we have 10 stocks to buy in the next 10 years. Not as like a personal advice thing, but as a way to say like, hey, look, I'm going to hold on to these upside hedges like Nvidia for now.
But, you know, do I really want to buy Nvidia now? I don't know. Probably want to buy others just in case jobs roll over. Uh, but maybe not. I I really hope that this week jobs do not roll over because jobs rolling over are going to be so painful uh for people and and nobody is prepared to lose their job in my opinion.
You know, people are throwing money into the stock market at margin. Margin is at mega all-time highs, way surpassing the 2021 cap. And mind you, not only are we passing margin levels that we saw in 2021, we're not even counting the debt that's in that's that's artificial built into uh leveraged ETFs.
So when you look at like a 2x or 3x ETF, that doesn't show up in margin statistics. So like how much debt is there really propping up this economy? All of it. Yes. How much debt would you like, sir? Yes, that's scary. So, uh you know, so Cody here says if shutdown, no BLS report. Yeah. Okay. There is some talk that we might not get a labor report because of the shutdown.
I actually didn't bring that up because I think it's Like the way the government operates during a shutdown is the people keep working at the government. They just don't get paid. So the poor souls have to show up and do their job and not get paid. And they have to wait for, you know, politicians to figure out how to give them their freaking money.
Uh and and then they get their money. But typically we continue to see the services of the government perform to some extent. You know national parks and some museums like the Smithsonians and that they shut down. But yeah I mean is it possible that Donald Trump directs the BLS not to release the labor report?
Well that tells you all you need to know though because remember how I said pay like I started this out by saying pay attention to Trump. If Trump sandbags the BLS report, it's because he already knows that it's going to be bad and and that's the market's not ready for that. The market's pricing in a good BLS report.
Uh not having the report though generally is bad because it removes transparency and it heightens uncertainty. It's going to take a lot of those bullish economists and potentially turn them bearish to some extent. So, you've definitely got some buy the dip opportunities uh over over this next week here, you know.
So, uh yeah, that's uh that's that's all related here to BLS jobs, all related to catalyst for the week. So, uh that's it. That's fantastic. That's really really good information to know in my opinion. Remember, we did do a brief extension on Daddy's Back, the coupon code at meetke.com. So, if you haven't yet, go to meet Kevin.com.
Realize what you get. you get oh we got trumpics lectures coming out really soon by the way those are included so if you get the meet Kevin membership trying to see if I can pop it up on screen here if you grab the Meet Kevin membership you not only get all eight courses with all the new lectures coming out mind you but you get every trade alert uh you get every private live stream you get every alpha report and it might even be taxdeductible it most people write it off on their taxes so anyway uh very cool so go check that out over at meet Kevin.com. .
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