저자: FlorianHeiser · 외국인
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결론: 버핏의 바릭골드 투자는 금 강세 신호로 보기 어렵고, 금 투자 판단은 별도 검토가 필요하다. [배경 및 바릭골드 소개] 바릭골드는 13개국에서 금·구리 광산을 운영하는 세계적 금광기업으로, 뉴욕(GOLD)과 토론토(ABX)에 상장되어 있다. 배당은 2020년 2분기 주당 8센트로 전 분기 대비 14% 인상되었으며, 2018년 합병 이후 배당이 두 배 이상 늘었다고 회사는 밝혔다. 주가는 8월 14일 26.99달러에서 시간외 거래에서 29.18달러로 상승했고, 52주 고점 30달러·저점 12.65달러, 배당수익률 약 0.59%로 소개됐다. [버핏의 13F 공시와 해석] 버핏의 버크셔해서웨이는 2분기 13F에서 골드만삭스 지분을 전량 매각하고 JP모건·웰스파고 등 은행주를 줄였으며, 항공주도 정리했다. 신규 매수는 바릭골드 2,090만 주(약 5억 6,400만 달러)로 공시되었고, 시간외에서 바릭 주가는 약 6% 상승했다. 다만 이 공시는 버핏과 토드 콤스·테드 웨슐러 등 부하 매니저의 종목 선택을 포함하므로 누가 매수했는지는 불분명하다. [버핏의 금 비판 발언] 버핏은 1998년 하버드 연설에서 금은 채굴·재매장·경비하는 데 자원을 낭비하며 효용이 없다고 비판했다. 2011년 서한에서는 금 시장 가치 9.6조 달러로 미국 농경지 전체와 엑슨모빌 16개를 살 수 있다고 언급하며 금의 장기 복리 성과가 열등하다고 주장했다. 2018년 주총에서는 1942년 주식 1만 달러 대비 금 투자 수익이 극히 미미하다는 비교를 제시했다. [버핏 아버지 하워드 버핏의 금본위 주장] 하워드 버핏은 1948년 글에서 금본위제 복원을 주장하며 화폐 자유와 금 태환성의 연관을 강조했다. 정부 지출을 제한하고 공공 재정에 대한 시민의 통제력을 높인다는 논리다. [진행자 시각] 진행자는 버핏의 바릭 매수를 금 강세 신호로 단정하기 어렵다고 보며, 금 가격 전망과 경기 리스크(정부 지원 축소, 파산 증가 등)를 함께 고려해야 한다고 언급했다. [리스크] 금 가격 하락 시 바릭을 포함한 금광주 변동성이 크며, 13F 공시는 분기말 시점 정보라 현재 포지션과 다를 수 있다.
다듬은 글
warren buffett invests in gold mining let's have a look hello everyone florian heiser here and welcome to another episode of heiser says grab your stein of coffee because i think you're all gonna need it particularly the gold bugs out there because warren buffett notorious gold bear has now invested in well a very large gold mining company well actually up until recently one of the largest ones in the world now before we go through this article it's discussing did buffered just bet against the us berkshire buys barrick gold and dumps goldman sachs so before we go through this let's jump over and have a little bit of a look at barrack let's have a little bit of a look at them because you know i haven't heard about them just shows you you know how uh colloquially colloquial i am here in australia but you can see here let's click on about what about let's see what they see themselves as our vision is to be the world's most valued gold mining business by finding developing and operating the best assets with the best people to deliver the best returns on a sustainable basis to our owners and partners we are committed to partnering with our host countries and communities to transform their natural resources into tangible benefits and mutual prosperity barrack gold and copper mining operations and projects in 13 countries in north and south america africa papua new guinea and saudi arabia a diversified portfolio spans many of the world's prolific gold districts and is focused on high margin long life assets the company's shares trade on the new york stock exchange under the symbol gold that's how much is that worth and on the toronto stock exchange under the symbol abx yeah gold sounds a lot better doesn't it it really does and if we click here we can see just a recent announcement from a few days days ago they've declared a dividend which compared to the reporting season we've been hearing here in australia i mean so many businesses haven't been haven't been declaring dividends and if you follow peter schiff as well he's really been talking up or looking at investing in some of the gold mining businesses and while some of the junior miners took a hit with the recent fall in gold well if it hits the projected levels that some people are considering or the fact that we've got rampant money printing going all around the world and it drives up gold these might be a good investment so barack obama gold corporation today announced that its board of directors has declared a dividend for the second quarter of 2020 of us eight cents per share a 14 increase on the previous quarter's dividend payable on september the 15th 2020 to shareholders of record at the close of business on the 31st of august senior executive vice president and chief financial officer graham shuttleworth said that barracks quarley dividend has more than doubled since the announcement of the barrick ran gold merger in september 2018 reflecting barracks continued strong financial performance the board believes that the dividend increase is sustainable and is reflective of the ongoing robust performance of our operations and continued improvement in the strength of our balance sheet with total liquidity of 6.7 billion including a cash balance of 3.7 billion as at the end of the second quarter and no material debt repayments due before 2033 said shuttleworth so i mean sounds good so let's have a look here i brought up their wiki so we can just see some of the locations that they've got operations in argentina canada ivory coast dominican republic mali the democratic republic of congo papua new guinea tanzania several in the united states they've got copper operations in chile saudi arabias in zimbabwe oh sorry zambia they had previous ones including the calgary super pit in australia here and i thought would bring up a picture just to show to give people an appreciation of the scale of these type of operations i mean if you've been if you've been out to a remote mine you know the only open cup ones i've seen the huge huge coal mines they're really impressive they're really really impressive now what's been happening with the share price we can see here this gray line if you're not aware is the after market trading the aftermarket trading and it closed at 26.99 on the 14th of august and now it's gone up to 29.18 so it's climbed a hefty amount what has it gotten two dollars two dollars twenty two dollars nineteen in aftermarket trading what does that tell you if we jump back to six months let's see how they're doing so they you know february they didn't really take where are they you know they've just been going up since the beginning of this year we'll go out to a year there you go they've just been going up they took a bit of a hit with gold going down five years they went up in 2016 down a little bit it's just steadily climbing up and max data there you go there you go look at that at 45 43 they peaked there the 52 week high is at 30 69 the 52-week low is at 12.65 with a dividend yield of only 0.59 so can it be a good uh dividend payer so i mean if warren buffett has made a move into this this company what does that tell you some people just follow him you're not even considering we'll just you know match his movements so let's have a look at this article from zero ahead and before i get into it i'm gonna need a shot of my coffee it's good coffee so this is going to get awkward these articles from zero ahead or ahead are always uh entertaining berkshire hathaway's latest 13f just dropped and contained inside is a signal that not only no none other than the oracle of omaha appears to now be quietly betting against the united states why because for years in fact for as long as we can remember warren buffett has denigrated gold in a speech delivered at harvard in 98 buffett said scroll down here gold gets dug out of the ground in africa or someplace well considering australia is one of the biggest exporters of gold you know then we melt it down dig another hall bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it it has no utility anyone watching from mars mars would be scratching their heads i i guess from his perspective it you know i mean sure it does have industrial applications but compared to other things he's right it just just it does just sit there isn't it i mean people use it as a currency he once famously said gold is a way of going long on fear and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time but you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now and if they become more afraid you make money if they become less afraid you lose money but the gold itself does not produce anything and i mean that is quite a sensible sensible take what do you think guys do you think he's going long on fear now are you going long on fear you think times are going to get tough you've got people talking up the property market here in australia you've got people talking up the recovery of the economy yet we've got all these interventions into the economy propping it up you've got job keeper you've got job seeker you've got mortgage holidays you've got trading while insolvence allowances what happens when all that disappears do you think the economy is magically going to kick back in or we'll suddenly have a whole heap of insolvencies and people losing their jobs then do you think fear will go up in his 2011 letter buffett noted that for 9.6 trillion you could buy parlay all of the gold in the world or pal b the entire u.s cropland 400 million acres plus 16 exxon mobils and still have another 1 trillion left over admittedly when people a century from now are fearful it's likely many will still rush to gold he wrote i'm confident however that the 9.6 trillion current valuation of pilot will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile b in 2013 buffon even went so far as to mock investors betting on gold saying that there were better places to put your money what motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow buffett wrote in 2012.
during the past decade that belief has been correct beyond that the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm attracting purchasers who see the rise as validate validating an investment thesis as bandwagon investors join any party they create their own truth for a while and i mean we can see that play out in other investment strategies is that what is happening here in gold or do we have some fundamental issues i mean we get we've got negative interest rates all over the world guys that's not natural in berkshire's 2018 annual meeting buffett compared to 10 000 invested in stock and gold in 42 the first year invested in stocks for every dollar you could have made in american business you'd have less than a penny of gain by buying into a store of value which people tell you to run to every time you get scared by the headlines and in his 2019 letter he reiterated the magic metal was no match for american metal all of which makes the following even more stunning according to the latest 13f howard buffett's berkshire hathaway not only dumped all his airlines it should be how should it be warren or howard his full name i'll look up i'll look it up here not only dumped all his airlines which we've heard about as as we learned previously but also liquidated huge amounts of exposure to u.s banks exiting goldman sachs entirely so berkshire's jp morgan stayed down 62 percent to 2.22.2 million shares berkshire as well fargo staked down 26 to 238 million shares berkshire trimmed its bet on pnc financial m t bank as well as bank of new york melloncorp mastercard and visa berkshire exited goldman's stake entirely and while he modestly added to his position in kruger store cap suncor energy the only new stock he bought in quarter 2 was the world's formerly biggest gold miner berkshire took a new 20.9 million shares sorry a new stake of 20.9 million shares in barrick gold a holding that was valued at about 564 million at the end of that period so over half a billion dollars worth he's invested into this gold mining and exploration company what does that tell you everyone you can see here where he's gone down where he's gone up i mean look at that look at how much he's gone in there so barrick gold is up around six percent after hours of course we do note that this 13-f filing reflects the stock picks of buffett as well as his long-time deputies todd combs and ted wilshere so it's unclear who exactly put the money to work in barrack doesn't matter so the famously anti-gold investor has abandoned banks the backbone of america's credit driven economy in favor of a gold miner which was the largest in the world until when new mount bought gold corp is buffered betting against america with a levered position in precious metals so what is most ironic about all of this is that warren's father howard buffett is among the great gold bugs of all time as we noted in 2010 a must-read essay by howard buffett father of the legendary investor who initially was so much against derivatives then promptly changed changed his tune discusses fiat money and gold and concludes that human freedom rests on gold redeemable money now it sounds like a very interesting essay and i'll have to make the time to go through it everyone in this stunningly simple straightforward and flawless analysis buffett's father stresses the relation between money and freedom and contends that without a redeemable currency an individual's freedom and one wants access to property is dependent on goodwill of politicians i'm going to repeat that again without a redeemable currency an individual's freedom and one's access to property is dependent on the goodwill of politicians that that makes me really want to read that probably doing a video for tomorrow everyone i think it's i think it's quite true isn't it think about it i'll have a shot of coffee do you agree with that statement guys let us know in the comments buffett also says that paper money systems generally collapse and result in economic chaos maybe that's what we're starting to see he goes on to observe that a gold standard would restrict government spending and give people greater power over the public purse lastly back in 48 howard buffett said this the present is the right time to restore the gold standard alas 60 years later his advice has has still been largely ignored and as a result we have a global economy that stands on the precipice of global default with runaway budget deficits across the entire developed world key quotes is there a connection between human freedom and a gold redeemable money at first glance it would seem that money belongs to the world of economics and human freedom to the political sphere but when you recall that one of the first moves by lenin mussolini and hitler was to outlaw individual ownership of gold you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money redeemable in gold and the rare prize known as human liberty also when you find that lenin declared and demonstrated that a sure way to overturn the existing social order and bring about communism was by printing press paper money then again you you are impressed with the possibility of a relationship between a gold-backed money and human freedom sadly i think it's so far removed now that most people won't even consider it or some people some people intrinsically think we actually have a gold back money i was talking to a neighbor and he just thought that here in australia his conclusion is eerily prophetic with what is happening with u.s society currently i warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold although they may outwardly seem favorable see they may outwardly seemingly favor it unless you're willing to surrender your children in your country to galloping inflation war and slavery then this cause demands your support for if human liberty is to survive in america we must win the battle to restore honest money and of course he notes that the federal reserve is at the forefront of those who will do everything in their power to prevent a return of the gold standard most opponents of free coinage of gold admit that the restoration is essential but claim the time is not um propitious some argue that there would be a scramble for gold and our enormous gold reserves would soon be exhausted actually this argument simply points up the case if there is so little confidence in our currency that restoration of gold coin would cause our gold stocks to disappear then we must act promptly the dangers were recently highlighted by mr alan sproul president of the federal reserve bank of new york who said without our support the federal reserve system under present conditions almost any sale of government bonds undertaken for whatever purpose laudable or otherwise would be likely to find an almost bottomless market on the first day support was withdrawn i found our finances will never be brought into order unless congress is compelled to do so making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion the full essay is below which we are confident was never read by howard's or ocular sun until perhaps very recently so did it really take him until he was 90 years old to realize that his dad was right after all so what happens next to monger and buffered by bitcoin what do you think so there we have it everyone there we have it and we'll jump here and there you go we will go to first day trading you can see here again i'll refresh this to see if it updates still up there 19 29 18 in aftermarket trading where do you think it's headed do you think it'll drop what do you think there'll be a gap in the market is this a sign to get into gold let me know your thoughts and opinions in the comments below please like share and subscribe to the channel if you're a fan and want to support the content i created there are a few ways you can simply interacting with the channel helps it's a great way to 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