저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거는 분산투자가 무지한 투자자용 전략이며, 본인이 잘 아는 소수 종목에 집중해야 한다고 주장. 멍거 포트폴리오(2021 13F 기준)는 버크셔 해서웨이, 코스트코, 달러 기반 자산 등 소수 종목에 대부분 집중되어 있음. 상위 3개 포지션이 자산의 대부분(약 90% 이상)을 차지. 멍거는 과거 순자산의 75~100%를 단일 아이디어에 투자한 사례를 언급하며, 드문 기회에 크게 베팅하는 것이 중요하다고 강조. 멍거·버핏 모두 일반 투자자에게는 인덱스 펀드가 적합하다고 말함. 발표자 본인은 평균 이상 투자자가 아니라고 판단해 인덱스 펀드 비중을 크게 두고 있음. 발표자는 소수 우량 종목에 대한 확신이 있는 일부 포지션이 시장을 이길 것으로 보지만, 이를 줄이고 가장 좋은 3~5개 종목에 집중할 계획이라고 언급. 영상은 2021년 촬영된 오래된 콘텐츠로, 현재 멍거 포트폴리오와 차이가 있을 수 있음. 본 영상은 특정 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언이 없음.
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what's going on you guys it's lincoln here welcome to the video today we're going to be diving into charlie munger's portfolio of the daily journal corporation i'll get into what that is but if you don't know charlie munger is warren buffett's right-hand man and the vice president of berkshire hathaway and so we're gonna hear a couple of things on diversification from him and then take a look at his portfolio so let's listen in the very word diversification which is taught in every business school is the holy golden grail i consider almost asinine i'm only interested in investing where i have some sort of advantage and and of course that means i can't do the conventional things and if i have the advantage in three different things that's enough for any family three wonderful things with the odds in your favor i mean do you want egg in your beer in life and so i think the idea of a big diversified for that's fine for the ignorant people to be fully diversified but if you actually know what you're doing i think three investments are plenty and the mongers if you take berkshire and costco and lulu's asian fund that's 90 of the money so this video is a couple years old so his portfolio has changed but the principle is still there you heard him say it if he has three great companies that he believes strongly in that is plenty diversified for him so that is what he's saying now let's take a look at his 2021 portfolio and see if it matches what he's preaching here so here is his 13f filing and we're going to get to a screen here in a second where it looks a little prettier but you can see just four positions in basically three positions that hold almost all of his money and basically two of them that are holding 93 percent 94 of his money and here is the breakdown of those positions um you can see the pie chart here obviously he's holding bank stocks and that must be what he sees as position well for 2021 and beyond he's a big fan of buying and holding very long term so i can guarantee with these positions he's looking much further past just the year of 2021 and probably uh going to try to not touch his portfolio for 10 years or longer so these are the positions he's in and although it's interesting to see that he is completely in bank stocks uh the more intriguing thing to me is the diversification or lack thereof um at least in the classical sense so i started digging for a few more videos and found quite a bit um on them so we're going to listen to a couple of those but first real quick um the daily journal corporation it's basically a company that he's chairman of most of you guys know him as being the vice chairman of berkshire hathaway along with the ceo warren buffett but he is the ceo of the daily journal corporation they own a couple of large publications like los angeles times san francisco times i think they have a few down in arizona and then they do a lot of the same things as berkshire and basically are that corporation but they invest in a lot of other companies and that's kind of how they make the both their money in the bulk of their revenue so business model is basically the same as berkshire so now that we have that settled well that's enough of me talking let's listen to what charlie has to say and we'll have a couple clips of warren mixed in there as they are a pair yeah if you the students of america go to these elite business schools and law schools and they learn corporate finance the way it's now taught and investment management is the way it's not now taught and some of these people write articles in the newspaper and other places and they say well the whole secret of investment is diversification that's the mantra they've got it exactly back afterward the whole secret of investment is to find places where it's safe and wise to non-diversify it's just that simple diversification is for the no-nothing investor it's not for the professional and there's nothing wrong with the know-nothing investor practicing it it's exactly what they should practice it's exactly what a good professional investor should not practice but that's you know there's no contradiction in that that a know-nothing investor will get decent results as long as they know they're a know-nothing investor diversify as the time they purchase their equities and as to the equities they purchase that's crazy for somebody that really knows what they're doing and you will find opportunities that if you put 20 of your net worth in it you have wasted the opportunity of a lifetime you know in terms of not really loading up and we've had the chance to do that way way in our past when we're working with small sums of money we'll never get a chance to do that working with the kinds of money that berkshire does we try to load up on things and there will be markets when we get a chance to from time to time but very solid do we get to buy as much of any good idea as we would like to charlie and i have been confident enough if you were only running our own net worth i'm certain a very significant number of times if you go over 50 years there have been a lot of times when you put at least 75 percent of your net worth into an idea within artificially well but 75 percent of your worth outside berkshire has never been a very significant well but i'm going back let's just assume it was let's let's just assume you didn't have berkshire in the picture there there have been times i mean we've seen all kinds of ideas we would have put 75 percent of our net worth in warren there have been times in my life when i've had more than 100 of my net worth invested in things that's because you had a friendly banker and i didn't oh that there have been times well initially i had 70.
several times i had 75 of my net worth in one situation there are situations you will see they over a long period of time i mean you you will you will see things that it would be a mistake if you're working with smaller sums it would be a mistake not to have half your net worth in i mean they're you really do sometimes insecurity see things that are lead pipe cinches and and uh you're not going to see them often and they're not going to be talking about them on television or anything of the sort but there there will be some extraordinary things happen in a lifetime where you can put uh 75 percent of your net worth or something like that in a given situation the problem has been the guys that have put 500 of their net worth in i mean you and so i always knew from the very first when i was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were few and the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have in a big investment counseling thing if they study a million things they can know a million things and that of course the result is almost nobody cannot perform an index whereas i sit here with my daily journals doug my berkshire hathaway stock my holdings of lilu's asian fund my costco stock and of course i'm out performing everybody i'm 95 years old and i probably never have a transaction and the answer is i'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them if you could have bought cap cities with tom murphy running it uh in the early in 1974 it was selling in a third or a fourth what the property is worth and he had the best manager in the world running the place and you had a business that was pretty damn good even if if if the manager wasn't uh you you could have put you could have put 100 of your net worth in there and not worry you're going to put 100 of your net worth in coca-cola uh earlier than when we bought it but certainly around the time we bought it and that would not have been a dangerous position be far more dangerous to do a whole bunch of other things that brokers were recommending to people charlie you want to the the idea of diversification makes sense to a point if you don't know what you're doing and you want the standard result and not be embarrassed well of course you've been widely diversified nobody's entitled a lot of money for recognizing that because it's a truism it's like knowing that two and two equals four and but the investment professionals think they're helping you by arranging a dirk diversification an idiot could diversify a portfolio and or a computer for that matter and and but the whole trick of the game is to have have a few times when you know that something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge and then if you get just a few opportunities that's enough and what tells you you own three securities and jp morgan chase owns a hundred you know it's what's wrong with owning a few securities warren always says if you lived in a growing town and you owned stock in three of the best enterprises in the town isn't that diversified enough the answer is of course it is so you guys heard it even an idiot can diversify his portfolio and i can confirm this fact as this is my portfolio you can see many more than three or four holdings this is kind of in combination with a couple things but i do agree with what charlie and warren are saying obviously it's smart too as they're two of the greatest investors of all time but i do not consider myself um smarter than the average investor so that is why my portfolio looks like this and why i rely pretty heavily on index funds which they both advocate for um basically not professional investors or people who aren't smarter than the average person at stock picking they basically do their big advocates for index investing and both say that is where they will leave the bulk of their estate once they do pass away so i do have a lot of my money in there but then as i've kind of talked about before there are positions and you can see them in my portfolio that i believe will outperform the market so obviously i think i should based on this information trim these positions back and then i guess kind of overweight a few of them even more so pick my best maybe three four five positions out of my portfolio and just put my money into those and then still have my index funds that's probably what i'll start to do um so kind of trim some of these positions back but i hope you guys enjoyed the video and learned something if you want to see more like it go ahead and hit that subscribe button and i'll see you guys in the next video
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