저자: AlexLieberman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 경기침체 우려는 과장돼 있으며 스타트업에는 영향이 제한적이지만, 자본조달과 고객 측면에서 긴장감은 커지고 있다. 제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO)은 6~9개월 내 경기침체 가능성을 언급했고, 심각한 침체라면 시장이 추가로 20~30% 하락할 수 있다고 본 것으로 소개됨. 출연자 Jesse와 Alex는 기업가 관점에서 침체 담론이 과도하게 주목받는다고 평가함. 대형 기업은 거시환경을 무시할 수 없지만 스타트업은 거시 요인을 핑계로 삼지 않아야 한다는 입장. 다만 Jesse는 창업자의 자금조달 기회가 실제로 영향을 받고 있다고 설명함. 엔젤 포트폴리오 창업자들이 브리지 라운드 이탈, 플랫·다운 라운드 자금 확보에 나서고 있다는 사례를 들었음. 벤처 업계에서 처음으로 수익성(profitability) 강조가 중요해졌고, 그동안 자금조달만 해온 창업자들에게 사업 계획 전면 재검토가 필요하다고 봄. Alex는 Morning Brew 광고 매출이 최근 몇 달간 둔화됐다고 밝힘. 현금 가치가 1년 전보다 약 8% 낮아졌고 주택담보대출 비용이 크게 올라 기업들이 비용을 줄이고 있다고 진단함. B2C 사업은 소비자 구매력 약화로 직접 영향을 받을 수 있으며, 고객이 누구인지가 중요하다고 강조함. 지난 몇 년간 쉬웠던 사업 환경에 안주하는 경향이 있었으나, 지금은 더 비판적인 사고방식이 필요하다는 결론으로 마무리함. 종목·자산별 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Jamie Dimon, who's the CEO of JPMorgan. Morgan, you know, largely considered to be one of kind of the best operators in financial markets or the bulge bracket banks said that he thinks we could see a recession in the next six to nine months, that he thinks markets could pull back another 20 to 30% if it's a bad recession.
This recession narrative obviously is going to kind of be a consistent through line in the pod, as it should be. But maybe people don't think it should be. And Jesse, I'm looking at you because I feel like you think the recession narrative is overblown. Yeah. Well, I think from an entrepreneur's perspective, if you're running a large company, you're running a bank, you're running Caterpillar.
Your business is so large that it sort of cannot not think about the macroeconomic situation. I don't think I think startups overly focus on it and again, like find it and use it as an excuse for why they can't close the deal. You know, if you think about software, it's a multibillion dollar market.
If you're starting a $2 million a company getting to 3 million the next year, you're sure people, you know, your sales cycles will take longer. There will be impacts you have to solve for, but it shouldn't affect the way you grow your business. If your ideas are really differentiated and you're actually doing kind of the hustling things that somebody does to start a company.
So I don't think put your head in the sand around it, but I just think it's talked about it's the amount of attention it gets versus what it should get from an entrepreneur perspective is way overblown. So what do you mean? I think it's yeah, I think it's really affecting founders opportunities to raise money.
I think bootstrap businesses are going to be affected by who their clients or customers are, depending on whether those are people whose businesses or lives are Recession-Proof, if there is such a thing. I have a lot of founders, you know, in my Angel Investment portfolio who are coming to me, whose investors are pulling out of bridge rounds, who are raising, you know, flat rounds or raising down rounds just to get money in the door.
And they're asking for a lot of introductions. I think it's hard for their existing investors to want to continue to invest given their companies may be plateauing. And, you know, there's a big emphasis on entrepreneurs and venture backed companies focusing on profitability for the first time. That word never existed in the venture world.
And now it's okay. Nobody even has that skillset or heads that these founders who have always raised money. And that's been their plan. Looking at their business now is going to be a completely different game plan. They're look, they're learning an impressive business. Is that is that it? Yeah, Yeah.
Oh, my God. Do over the last five years. Oh, my Lord. I mean, you guys both bootstrapped your businesses. Did you did you have to think about your expenses and make sure your revenue is greater than those like, gosh, golly. You know, but I mean, we also in a ten year bull run. So it also is a nice time to be bootstrapping and building a business.
I mean, I agree with the fact that for certain companies that are startups, I know the macroeconomic climate may not impact them as much because they're so small in kind of what is the pie of customers they're going after. But I mean, just even using Morning Brew as an example where media business, we have advertising revenue, we have absolutely seen softness in advertisers over the last few months.
And at the end of the day, if your money is worth 8% less in cash, than it was a year ago and you're now a consumer who your mortgage on your home costs significantly more companies are cutting. Maybe you lost your job like you have to think at some point it's going to if you have a B2C business, it's going to impact your ability to sell to consumers.
So I think that who your customer is really matters but I also think it's a mindset. I think it has been very easy to be complacent over the last few years because not to say it's ever easy to build a business, but I think it was easier than it is now. And so I actually think, you know, you talked about the bootstrap mentality or mindset last episode.
I just think there's a mindset, a let's call it a more critical mindset that this type of environment creates that for founders that haven't had it. It's a good wake up call. Thank you guys so much. For watching this episode of The Crazy Ones. If you're an entrepreneur or a builder and want more great startup content, make sure to subscribe on our YouTube channel or wherever you get your podcasts.
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