저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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제조업 경기 둔화와 소비 경기의 괴리를 강조하며, 무역전쟁과 중국 경기 둔화가 산업재 기업 실적을 압박한다고 진단. 연준의 금리 인하 필요성을 주장하고, 여러 기업 실적과 주가 반응을 분석함. 결론: 산업 경기 약세가 심화되어 연준이 금리를 인하해야 하며, 소비 경기는 양호하나 제조업은 침체 중이라는 진단. 무역전쟁과 중국 경기: 무역전쟁이 세계 경기를 약화시키고 달러 강세를 유발했다고 봄. 중국 경기 둔화로 3M은 중국 유기적 성장률 전망을 하향(저~중간 한 자릿수 감소)했고, 캐터필러·Dow Chemical도 중국 영향을 받음. 중국이 협상으로 나오면 미국 기업에 이익이지만, 버티면 세계 전체에 고통이라고 주장. 항공·기업 실적: 보잉은 737 MAX 문제로 생산 중단 가능성이 있으며, 이는 미국 GDP를 0.5%p 깎을 수 있다고 우려. 보잉 주가 13% 하락 언급. 소비·기술주: 소비 지출은 견조하며 아마존·알파벳 등은 강세. 테슬라 관련 중국 판매 언급 및 Starbucks 동일점 매출 감소 언급. 금리 및 정책: 산업 약세가 연준의 금리 인하 명분이 되며, 한 번의 인하로는 충분하지 않을 수 있다고 봄. 트럼프 행정부의 중국산 관세 추가 부과 언급. 개별 종목 질의응답: 던킨(Dunkin) 장기 보유 긍정, 비욘드미트 부정적, 스냅 관련 기술 혁신 기업 긍정적 평가, 노드스트롬은 부정적 전망. 리스크: 중국 경기 악화 지속, 보잉 생산 중단, 산업재 침체 장기화, 연준 대응 지연. 출연자 전망: 산업재 약세는 해결되지 않으며 연준이 빠르게 대응해야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
I'll be one of my e teach and put it his early season it has suddenly gone completely skip so frantic which is how you get daily today where the Dow lost 129 points as we cite point five three percent the Nasdaq nosedive 1% but the first two weeks of Bernie's season things were pretty straight forward sure the business side of the economy might be yeah let's say slowing down but the good super was doing so great backed by a strong job market higher stock prices and it word got to tell you it's offsetting any industrial weakness this week it's a totally different story the markets know no longer when it's meds while two-thirds of our economy is consumer oriented indeed the other third has gotten so bad so fast that it's crying out for some kind of governing invention that's what caused today's weakness because the non consumer economy is just plain worrisome later tonight we're speaking to American electric powered you know that's the largest power transmission company in the whole country they just reported this morning if you're trying to get a read on the economy there's nothing better than the talking then getting the power daily so it took my breath away when I heard CEO Nick Aikens call man say the biggest economic had when we have at this point is the impact of the trade war on the businesses in AP service territory end quote he continues quote the increasing number of tariffs on goods beyond steel and aluminum have impacted export manufacturers in our service territory certainly the trade wars have weakened the world economy and caused a strengthening US dollar which adds even more of a hurl end quote I'm gonna ask you about this change when he comes on the show later I mean but you need to know it it costs a dramatic 4.6 percent decline for the companies in his area that are non guests wid that's stunning I mean these are these are companies just like the kind of power yes hey do you know that the Steel's down 1% power you said hey that's some types of the towers supposed to protect I sure hope that j-pal our Fed chair recognizes that what he needs to do is what I'm doing he needs to check in with Alf it's like a ep the largest trans transmitter in the country if he talks to that harnessed him the tariffs are really decking part of the country again I you know I've been supportive of the trade war with China it is time this is still the best moment to crack down on their deeply unfair practices and I knew there would be some short-term pain but holy cow started a real doozy of industrial downturn their needs fed help now while the consumers still in good shape for the moment you got to wonder how long that can last if the industrial economies experience such as of your slow down of course it takes to to have a trade war and having listened to most of the conference calls for big industrial companies I think China is getting hit much harder than we are the conventional media will not cover this story I want you to look at 3m this morning when the cop reported the headlines look good the stock popped in pre-market trading some 80 points at one point once coughs cause digested that would shed all of those gains and then some why I think because freedom seems to be experiencing a Nepali slowdown in China which had been their savior for so many years obviously hearing the Bennett way then as well as been a big drag on Cory maybe Argentina Rizzo Turkey I never thought that China would be the source of such weakness yet it's almost become actually a Maya it's a given listen with 3m CFO Niklas gangsta it had to say he pretty matter-of-factly told us quote for the year we now expect organic growth in China to be down low to mid single digits versus a prior expectation of flat as we continue experienced challenging and market conditions particularly electronics and automotive industries end quote low to mid single demon that was the savior of American industry like I said what a mood wait isn't that what our companies move there to sell hey it wasn't just coffee right fried chicken this feels bizarre to hear that Brazil Canada Mexico roll much better than China Brazil Mexico you know here's the thing about this slowdown if it pressures the Chinese government to make a deal that's great for our companies but if China just digs in it takes the pay that's a real problem for the rest of the world their pain is not our gain we see this across the board yesterday caterpillar disappointed even as management maintained their four year projections which allowed us not to bounce back today one reason I thought cat could have relief flowey though it Ravalli though is that China's now become less than 10 percent of their book of business that's a godsend he imagined a machinery company then there's Dale chemical all right you saw recommend the stock in part because of exposure to China's fast growing economy the need for plastics in China and while they had some decent items in the PRC that they sold polyester sold to you pal CEO Jim federally made it clear that the Chinese economy is and I quote having some big pressure right now end quote fortunately Dallas US business actually offset the Chinese weakness allowing them to make the numbers but the stock got pummeled anyway cousin not so great forecast in short the China's in terrible shape how terrible okay get this later today I didn't set the show up like this but it sure seems like I did we're gonna talk to a lying technology that's the maker of this line braces it's not plummeted 74 bucks 27 percent now us business is cool but the real source real source of weakness tougher sumer environment in China it fell off a cliff you hear Joe open tell you the China fell off a cliff and then I in the end their teeth straightened forever sake nothing gets richer faints you have real equipment he's good all similar story about the Fallen Chinese consumer when it comes to cruise lines I wonder how long the Chinese can ignore it of course it's not just the train board it's got me worried I mean this for years aerospace has been one of the greatest secular quota themes at our manufacturing but we just heard from Boeing and if the delay from the 737 max problem continues they may need to stop production that used to be the number one plane always making up in makes of a huge chunk of American manufacturing capacity or I should say remaining capacity if they after all production that could shave half a percent off her gross domestic product that's a tail wind turning into a headman and there's nothing that President or the Fed can do to stop it tests of that hammer today down 13 percent on weaker sales the conference call was otherworldly given the man's story that you'll I must traced out and the five billion dollar war chest he's sitting on you have thought the stock should've been up 36 bucks not down 36 but I have to wonder how much of must confidence comes from potential sell sales in China I don't know if you can still count on alright Tesla's not a Ford it's not a car though and the Chinese numbers we got from Ford this morning were Rochas these days you can't come the People's Republic to buy anything except perhaps coffee where Starbucks was some same store sales and its daily 6% well that's a good sense of priorities Chinese uh here's the arty you know what was the star of the whole day and I'm including after hours no no this is like being favored thank you this is a favor look he's looking at this thing I asked me questions like does it so gave it its alphabet alphabet which is soaring in after-hours trading because of a gigantic Bernie speak you know what the greatest part alphabet is they are not in China for how many years we have to hear that not being China hurt them this time it's a charm now we know their pockets of strength in the economy tell spending they big-box kids is spending continues to beta I debated although Amazon after a big run a better they spent in quarters took a breather tonight because of heavy spending cycle that I told you it's going to kick him and we get her game plan come on the most recent mortgage application data shows a decline low single digits how's this feel pretty good but the industrial economy is so weak that j-pal now has plenty of ammo to justify cutting interest rates and president rolls out new tariffs on Chinese imports and that 300 billion if oil goes down then one rate cut will not be enough here's the bottom line people as I've been saying since this earning season began we have two economies in this country we have the manufacturing economy and the consumer economy for the moment they are very out of step with each other the form of doing badly the latter doing well this industrial weakness is a serious problem it will not go away unless the Fed steps on the accelerator and does so soon going to offset the weakness being exported here of course along with their air pollution from China Jeffrey in Washington jeffrey jwn that's that thing lives on the 52-week Louis I got to get my new address what's up it's been the internet sales open in New York at the end of the year and the dividends over 5% right now do I need to buy this thing and hold on to it look my Chapel trust owns Coles and that is and you are talking about a complete housing complex of pain I'm gonna say stay away from Nordstrom that is look at the days of Nordstrom's greatness may be waning maybe get a little pop up to 36 but that's not what we're about no all right now we're gonna go to Kevin in California Kevin hi Jim I'm Bonnie my son kevin has a question for you sure of course your face we're big fans of you in your show I'm 10 years old and I'm from Burbank California I'm looking for another stop from Arthur for portfolio for college so what do you think of Dunkin Donuts after its deal with but beyond me I think that we've done is doing quite well I happened to like that new CEO very much tells a pretty good story the beyond meat deals just a little bit I had the sausage and I tell you this killer I really really like it not enough to move the needle but for 10 year old it's got a long time frame long time horizon I think Dunkin Donuts will do just fine beyond meat a little too hot for me but I understand the ethos and I bet you one day Kevin's gonna say you know what give me a burger I'll be on meat burger they were certainly beyond meat hotdogs in front of exchange today I took a pass let's go to Amy in Michigan Amy hey crane yes yeah thank you so much for helping women to invest yes yes I am 2 months new to the market and about 10 days ago I picked up snap it was a tip from the younger generation my millennial boyfriend I like the concept I like the chart and it filled two of my criteria management I was impressed that Evan Spiegel walked away from a three billion dollar offer from Facebook and innovation I only want to be involved with highly innovative companies so my question for you is should I hold it will the run continue what do you think of the stock Amy I completely agree doing absolutely everything you said it was innovation was an innovation Rahman that cop school is true I'm gonna go see Evan Spiegel now of course he hasn't invited me so it's probably gonna be like me being a stalker I've had those so I know how to do it but that was a great quarter you were absolutely right I was kind of blown away that the stock didn't go right to 20 as it should and as it will you are doing real good work how about our callers how smart are they it makes me feel such an idiot like when I align technology comes up my line visit line I shoulda known do you agree what's his work as finally did not working see that all right it's a tale of two cut economies it's the consumer economy in the Mattachine out of me and it's a Dickens economy and now they are divided will they stand we know what happens to house divided it right well anybody tonight we're all quitting important puzzling quarter for the second consecutive run in a row what's up with that I got to see you then yikes they make everything business line that I just mentioned plunge nearly 30 percent of Bernie's I got the top Chris we gotta find out what the heck's going on there and don't a bolt just yet I've got the CEO of AEP up more than 20% for the year what's going on stick bed two mad money done cnbc.com you
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