저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 투자자 Vijay Kedia의 '5P' 체크리스트(People·Product·Potential·Profitability·Price)를 소개. 경영진 진정성(소액주주 피해·가이던스 대비 실적·보수 적정성), 제품 가격결정력, 성장 잠재력(매출 두 자릿수 성장), 수익성(ROE 20%↑, 부채비율 0.5↓, 잉여현금흐름), 밸류에이션(PE)을 점검하라고 권함. 1992년 하르샤드 메타 사태 때 매수한 일화와 Asian Paints·Atul Auto 등 사례 언급. 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, welcome to Finance Aarti by Govind Agarwal. He started with just Rs 25,000 and today his portfolio is worth Rs 100 crore. Yes, I am talking about Vijay Katiya Sir who is also called the little Warren Buffett of India. But what inspires me most about him is n't his money. He also made the same mistakes, the same mistakes that you and I make on a regular basis even today.
The year was 1992 when the Harshad Mehta scam crashed the market badly. He also lost his money in it. His family told him to do a job. He said no, today I will tell you his exact formula which he has presented before us by summarizing his 30 years of investing journey. Those five simple things due to which he is called Guru of the Five Pieces.
And after knowing this, I assure you that you will start looking at any stock in a different way. The year was 1985. He was born in a middle class Marwari family in Mumbai. He left his CA studies midway and gave in to family pressure to do something stable. In 1992, he borrowed ₹25,000 from his father.
And this was his last chance. I have to achieve something in this. And Vijay Kedia Sir invested that ₹25,000 in the market. Then the Harshad Mehta scam happened. And because of this scam, when everyone was running away from the market, Vijay Kedia Sir bought more stocks. Because their logic was that they could lose money only once.
But if he learns the market then he will have a whole ocean in front of him. From 1992 to 2000 Vijay Kedia Sir developed a framework. Because of that he suffered some losses and also made some big gains. The name of this framework was Five Piece. This five piece gift is from Vijay Kadiya Sir to all of us retail investors.
What is the Now Five Piece? First People Product Potential Profitability and Price. Vijay Kadiya Sir says that if any share or stock passes these five pieces then its chances of becoming a long term multibagger are very high. This is a simple checklist that he has validated after earning his crores.
Let us understand one by one. What does each piece mean ? The first is Peepal. Vijay Keya Sir's first question is who is running the company? Management, Promoter, CEO is one of his famous lines. I don't buy the company. I invest money in the people of that company. Let us understand why this is so important.
Let's take an example. There are two companies Company A and Company B. Company average product but world class management. Company B World class product plus average management. In the long term, you will see that company A almost always wins because good people make even average products exceptional and bad people will make even exceptional products bad or ruin them.
Let me give you a real life example. Apple was about to go bankrupt in 1997. Steve Jobs came back. The company became worth 3 trillion. Same company, different people but completely different results. In India, BJ's Sir invested in Atul Auto in 2003. Why? His first reason was Jagdish Patel Bhai. Jagdish Patel was the promoter of Atul Auto.
He was a simple comprehensive businessman in Gujarat. No MBA , no big city background. But what about them? There was integrity, there was clarity and there was focus. Now let us understand that Vijay Kedia Sir says that there are three ways to check the integrity of the management. First, has the promoter ever hurt the minority shareholders?
Second, has the company done what it said? How can we compare this? Compare guidance versus actual results. And thirdly, is the promoter keeping his salary reasonable or is he withdrawing money from the company. Check these three things. You will have to understand whether the Peepal Peepal, which is our first Pee, passed or failed.
What can you do for this? Annual reports of BSC and NSC are available for free. Promoter salary is always disclosed in it. Ok? Past Guidance and Sorry Past Guidance vs Actual Results sinner.in You will get it on this. If you do this work then your checklist of People should be completed. The first second P is the second P.
The second P is your product. DJ's head remains in question. Will this product be relevant even after 10 years ? This sounds simple. But this is a huge filter. Real life example, if I tell you, someone might have bought Nokia stock in 2005. Nokia 's product at that time was excellent in 2005. Now by 2012 it has completely disappeared from the offline market.
Vijay Kedia Sir's favorite type of products are those which are useful for daily use. Which is not easily replaceable. Which can absorb price increase without losing customers. You will not understand such products in economic terms, pricing power is a term. These products are called pricing power. For example, Asian Paints is such a thing that by renovating the house, you get the factory paint done everywhere.
If Asian Paints increases its prices every year, it will not lose many customers. But you will see that in the last 20 years, the stock has increased 100 times. Now the third P is potential, Vijay Gadiya Sir says that this company in which you are thinking of investing, the size of the company can increase 10 times, it can grow 10 times, you have to see the scalability of the company, how can you check the potential, you have to ask three questions about the company.
Can the company increase its addressable market by five to ten times its current revenue? First question. The second question is whether the company is considering or can move into new geographies or new products ? What is second third? What are the entry barriers of the company ? This means that computer users cannot easily copy and paste your products.
So how can you check this ? Go to Screener or any other site. Look at the revenue growth trend. If there is consistent double digit growth then you can consider the company to have a lot of potential. Fourth B Profitability Vijay Kedia Sir's Jim quote is that revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash flow is reality.
This is Sir's quota. That's why I used it here. There are many companies which increase revenue but do not increase profit. And there are many companies which show profit but do not generate cash flow. So in this also sir, let us see number three. Vijay Kiya Sir, see three numbers in this also. First return on equity.
What does return on equity indicate ? How efficiently is the company generating profits from its shareholders' money ? If ROE is plus 20% consistently then it is a green signal. If it is less than 10% then it is a red flag. Second, they check the equity ratio of the company. How much debt does Means Company have?
If anyone would prefer low debt companies, especially in cyclical industries. If the debt equity ratio is below 0.5 then it is comfortable. If it is above two then you should consider it a rate flag or caution take. Third is free cash flow. This is the most honest number. Profit may fluctuate due to accounting.
No cash flow. If the company is consistently generating positive cash flow, then understand that the business is genuinely healthy. Friends, our fourth P was profitability, in this we asked you to look at three things. A ROE return on equity dead equity ratio and cash flow. You can easily see this by going to any app or site.
You will get all the data there. Fifth P is price for yourself. If you buy even the best company at the wrong price, your investment will turn out to be bad. Price here does not mean whether you are buying the stock cheaply or expensively. Price means whether what you are paying is fair as per the actual value of the company and this is measured by the PE ratio which is also called price earning ratio.
Think your PE ratio ( price earnings ratio) is coming to 20. What does it mean? This means that you are paying ₹20 for the company's annual earning of ₹1. Now the question arises, is ₹20 right or wrong? It depends on the industry and the growth rate. Friends, and one very important thing is the fifth P, that is price.
You have to check the price only when your first pieces are passed, only then you can check the price. If a stock fails these four Ps – People, Product, Potential, Profitability – it is a value trap. It is not a multi-billionaire. Right company, right price, right time, this is the biggest formula. And patience is also the sixth invisible of this formula.
So friends, start today. Select any company of your choice. Put him on your company's watch list. If the fourth P is passed on then check the P price in it. Go to a good site. Check ROE, Debt Equity, Free Cash Flow. And then check the price. For that we have to use PE ratio. These three steps are the core of BJ's sir's 30 years of stupidity , I have presented them before you.
Now friends, comment 5p and which companies have you kept in your watch list and if you found this video helpful then share it with your friends. Subscribe to the channel , hit the bell icon because in the next video we will definitely cover the formula of some other legendary investor. I am your finance partner. See you in the next video. Hail India.
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