BlackRock's Larry Fink: There's a lot of cash ready to go to work in the stock market

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결론: 래리 핑크는 시장에 유입 대기 중인 현금이 많고 상승 흐름이 당분간 이어질 것으로 봤지만, 백신과 신규 변이가 최대 리스크라고 강조했다. 주제 1: 부양금과 투자 자금 유입 - 제이미 다이먼이 소비자가 '코일드(대기 상태)'라고 언급한 데 대해 질문이 이어짐 - 블랙록은 금융자문사를 통해 간접적으로 자금을 받아 개별 투자자 자금 출처는 직접 파악하지 않는다고 설명 - 블랙록 자산관리 플랫폼에서 미국과 전 세계적으로 자금 유입이 늘고 있다고 밝힘 - M2 등 통화지표상 대기 현금이 많고, 그 상당 부분이 실제로 투자되고 있다고 봄 주제 2: 대기 현금의 원인 - 부양금뿐 아니라 코로나 기간 재택근무로 통근비(뉴욕 기준 월 400~500달러)가 절약되며 저축이 늘었다고 설명 - 이 저축 증가가 현금이 시장 밖에 머무는 주요 이유라고 주장 주제 3: 투자 문화와 장기 저축 - 자금 출처가 부양금이든 저축이든 장기 투자나 트레이딩 참여가 늘어난 점은 긍정적이라고 평가 - 젊은 세대가 틱 단위 매매보다 금융 이해력과 은퇴 대비 저축에 집중해야 한다고 강조 주제 4: 시장 전망(예측) - 통화·재정 부양, 대기 현금, 기업 실적을 근거로 시장은 '괜찮고 계속 더 강해질 것'이라고 낙관 - 구체적 지수 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않음 - 리스크 조건: 백신 접종과 집단면역이 신규 변이에 효과가 없으면 최대 리스크 - 경제 정상화(사무실 복귀, 스포츠·문화행사, 출장 재개)가 핵심 조건이라고 설명 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 상승 지속에 낙관적이며, 백신 성공 여부를 가장 큰 변수로 본다.

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01. hey larry um yesterday jamie dimon said that the consumer is coiled and ready to go and he cited stimulus payments as a big part of that reason for the stimulus payments we've seen in the united states we've heard all sort of anecdotal evidence that some of the stimulus money is in fact going into the markets and and i realized for blackrock you have seen gains uh inflows coming in not just from the united states but from asia and europe and other places but what can you say about what you've seen with that stimulus money what what impact that might be having on the market right now well as you know we we do not have that direct relationship we work with all the financial advisors in the world um and so i would say we as a business model we don't go that last mile having that conversation specifically specifically with an individual but of course the wealth management platform of blackrocks in the united states and worldwide we're seeing more and more flows and as evident of of monetary uh uh m2 the amount of cash that's sitting in the sideline much of that cash is is certainly being put to work but let's be clear too a big reason why there's so much cash sitting in the sideline during covet and during remote working our behaviors have changed dramatically think about what the average new yorker since we were talking about we are all in new york think about the average new yorker how much savings they have right now by not commuting what is it four hundred dollars a month five hundred dollars a month to commute uh and that's true in so many cities so think about that savings that you have just in your patterns of life how that's changed under covet and i think that's a big reason why cash is sitting on the sidelines i'm very enthusiastic though whether the money is coming from a stimulus check or is coming from savings or behavior changes for savings i think it's fantastic that we're seeing more people either investing for the long term or even trading if we can get more and more young people to have the enthusiasm to build financial literacy and to not just focus on the tick tock of the market in trading but we they they begin even earlier to save for retirement save for their long-term outcome i think the dynamics of america will even be stronger and the foundation of america will be even stronger if more and more people can lit be prepared for retirement and then live in retirement with dignity do you think it lasts though all of these changes that have led to people having extra cash and and then taking that cash and putting it into the markets i guess i'm asking more of a of your perspective on the markets and whether you think these highs that we continue to hit are a thing that are going to be with us for a while i believe because of monetary stimulus fiscal stimulus the cash on the sidelines earnings the markets are okay markets are going to continue to be stronger i'm not trying to suggest they're not risks the greatest risk we have in the world is if a variant is not um is not um if our vaccinations do not help us in a new variant the key for all our economies worldwide is bringing us back to the to a normal life having people come back to office having us going to sporting events and cultural events and traveling again in business meetings if we don't have great success in the vaccination and and developing hurt immunity then i would say that's probably the greatest risk we have in the world