저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 2008년과 달리 현재 주택시장은 붕괴가 아니라 거래량 급감과 완만한 조정 국면이며, 주택 가격 하락이 있어도 대량 매물 쏟아짐은 제한적일 것이라는 견해. 핵심 주장: 2008년에는 역자산(negative equity) 상태인 차주가 은행의 숏세일 제안 등으로 매물을 쏟아냈으나, 현재는 저금리 주담대를 유지하려는 차주가 많아 매물 공급이 억제된다. 근거 수치: 30일 이상 연체율은 약 1.48%로 최근 10년간 바닥 수준이며, 2008년 대비 연체·차압 스트레스는 제한적이다. 주택 가격은 일부 코로나 붐 도시(오스틴)에서 고점 대비 약 20% 하락 후 일부 회복했고, 거래량은 전년 대비 크게 줄었다. 금 대비 가격: 실질적으로 주택은 금 기준 2000년대 중반 대비 약 1/3 수준으로 평가되어 금 대비로는 과거보다 저렴하다는 차트를 인용했다. 다만 이 지표 활용에는 유보적이다. 출연자 전망: Peter Schiff은 저금리 장기 고정 주담대 보유자에게는 주택 매입이 여전히 유리하며 인플레이션이 부채 부담을 희석할 것이라고 봤다. 주택을 실거주용으로만 사는 것은 감가상각 자산으로 투자는 아니라는 입장이다. Grant Cardone 전망(소개된 발언): 2024~2025년 임대료는 보합, 2026~2027년에는 신규 건설 중단과 공급 부족으로 임대료가 급등할 것이라고 봤고, 이에 따라 아파트 1만2천 호를 두 배로 늘릴 계획이라고 언급했다. 리스크: 금리 상승 시 변동금리 대출 차주 부담, 실직 등으로 인한 개별 차압은 계속 발생할 수 있으며, 지역별(예: 파산 위기 도시) 가격 차이가 클 수 있다. 진행자 코멘트: 진행자는 두 출연자 주장에 대체로 동의하면서도 주택 가격이 매우 비싸다는 점에서 금 기준 저평가 논리에는 의문을 표시했다. 사회자 종합: 주택시장 급락 우려는 과장이며 현재는 거래량 위축 중심의 조정이라는 판단이 주된 메시지다.
다듬은 글
they're not going to build anything they'll stop all building all construction this happened again in 20089 and 10 let's say I've got a house and I paid 500,000 for it and it's worth 400 and so I'm underwater you won't believe what Peter Schiff and Grant Cardone just said about the housing market it's almost the opposite of what I would have expected Peter shiff to say let's get into this 5 minute or so clip this is from an interview with sax realy and Peter shf looks like they went to his house hey I've been to his house too Peter shff is a great guy uh don't always agree with everything he says but this perspective was really interesting so let's add some commentary to it it's only about 5 minutes long keep in mind today is Black Friday uh so we've got the Black Friday sale going on we reduce prices # deflation so we've got the best deal guaranteed you can get on the courses going forward you had any questions you're an existing member want to bundle up we're going to take care of you with the new content we got coming out so just email us at staff meetkevin.com a lot of people are also asking for the stack hack Financial advice videos the non-personal videos and they just want the library they don't even want their own Financial advice they want to see me give Financial advice to other people like licensed Financial advice to other people just email us if you're interested in that staff atme kevin.com or anything else at meetkevin.com will help you out all right let's listen to this this is wild here we go what does that mean for the market right now the housing market it's a little bit difference than than it was back in ' 08 so today since the most valuable asset that the homeowner has really more than his home is his mortgage a lot of people are going to want to stay in those homes even if the home price goes down their mortgage is so low that it still might be cheaper let's say I've got a house and I paid 500,000 for it and it's worth 400 and so I'm underwater back in in in '08 the borrow would say well I'm wasting my money why why am I going to pay this mortgage I mean I have negative equity I'm just giving money to the bank I'll go rent something or may you know I'll buy I'll you know buy something else at a lower price but even if you bought something at a lower price if the mortgage was 8% and not 3% even if I got a better deal on a home my my monthly payment is going to be higher and the same thing with rent a lot of people might be living in a home that they I just want to clarify what Peter's saying here he's say what's different today from 2008 is that if you leave your payment goes up so this sort of clickbate real estate crash that everybody keeps talking about on YouTube has really been a crash of housing volume so far now don't get me wrong we've covered the housing crash in depth and in every single video we're like at Max we've seen 10 to 15% maybe 20% in some covid boom markets like Austin or boy but then we saw some recovery in 2023 then it started softening again in October and September of 2023 but so far no big 2008 instead the big year-over-year negative numbers that we're seeing are volumes down people aren't selling as much as they used to and people aren't buying as much as they used to so yeah you have a volume crash which affects service providers in real estate but this is such an interesting argument Peter talks about because it's the lockin argument which is literally the opposite of what you had in 2008 now Peter said the words this is different so that obviously triggers a lot of people to say oh he said this time's different that must mean it's not but it's not different this time it's the opposite in 2008 and I find this so interesting in 2008 people were paid to get out of their home so they're underwater and Banks came to them and said look rather than going through foreclosure let's do a short sale here take 10 grand of moving money and 10 grand just as a thank you for doing a short sale basically making us lose money on the loan but thank you for getting out we'll pay you 20 grand basically just to get out and then you can go get a lower payment somewhere else and you get rid of that negative equity that you had like why would people not take that deal so you get a surge of housing inventory that really collapses home values up to 45% in some commercial places you saw commercial values fall over 50% we and when I say commercial in this case I mean commercial residential you know commercial office today is a disaster totally different story but that's interesting because it's the opposite of today where if you move your payment goes up either via higher interest rate or higher rent payment you're not negative equity in most cases and yeah even though there are people who have foreclosures or are going through foreclosures they a drop in the bucket relative to the percentage of loans outstanding or relative to even historical levels of foreclosures I mean quite frankly we could just look at 30 days or more past du on the St Louis Fred website here which takes us all the way back to 2013 this isn't even showing you 2008 I wish it would go back further but even just going back over the last 10 years we're basically at the bottom uh and this is 30 days pass du so it'd be a pretty early indicator of foreclosure or housing payment stress we're at 1.48% now sure some people like to say oh well if you look at FHA it's higher or VA it's higher sure but those are also loans with a substantially higher debt to income ratio and they're always higher and they're always part of the same curve so this is a fascinating argument by Peter Schiff because he's really arguing this is not different this is the opposite housing market that we're in right now very odd but this is very similar to what Grant Cardone just said listen to what Grant Cardone just said in a video with well the old buddies how are you you using this as an opportunity to make moves we're buying every piece of real estate that we can buy the cash flows right now with no debt so how are how have you positioned your portfolio to whether a potential storm if prices continue to drop or interest rates continue to go higher like for your existing loans let's just say yeah are those we have 30 39 loans we have uh uh five of those loans 32 of the loans have 10year mortgages um we have five loans that have adjustables through 20 what what are we in 23 through 25 2-year extensions those will have to be fixed um it's 15% of the entire portfolio so I mean I have it charted out exactly what I'll have to fund to fix all that it will there's an old adage uh Nathan Rocha I think said when there's blood in the street by comma even when it's your own blood so we expect to we we have 12,000 apartments right now we expect to double that portfolio in this cycle maybe in the next six months do you worry though about interest rates resetting at a higher amount while at the same time rents are falling or you believe that rents will continue to go even higher I think rents will flatten I think rents flatten for the next two years 24 25 you'll have flat rents and then in 26 because they're not going to build anything they'll stop all building all construction this happened again in 2008 n and 10 um we're 4 million homes short in America today we're probably another 40 million homes that nobody wants cuz they're old homes they're your mom's and Grandma's house nobody wants to move into them and um in 26 27 rents will explode in this country holy smokes cardone's just buying everything again and he thinks R will explode in a couple years does that mean there's a two-year window to go pick up real estate let's keep going paid 400,000 for that's worth 300,000 or maybe even 200,000 but their mortgage is so low that if they just walked away and they rented a property their rent would be higher here Peter shiff is saying even if you went negative on the value of your home if you had that low mortgage rate you'd still end up having a lower payment by staying in a negative equity home today again reiterating the opposite of last time fascinating so it's like doesn't matter that I'm giving money to the bank I got to live somewhere I'd rather give it to the bank than than a landlord so that's an incentive for people to stay in their homes and continue to make payments even if uh they have negative equity so that's going to keep some of the supply off the market maybe a lot of the supply I have never heard that explained that way that's brilliant what you what you just said is um what's happening we don't think about that often but when we look at the actual data that's what we're seeing I mean on a daily basis I say people get way more views than I do which is fine I mean it you know if they want to blatantly lie to people that's okay I'm going to do my best just to talk about reality uh but but I think there's this there's this desire to say oh you know housing is crashing because it's going to get a lot of views uh but the reality is every time we analyze it we're like wow you know it's it's not going to be like 2008 yeah we're having softness and yeah there's a fear that what if housing inventory bumps in Spring well I think that's that's a real concern is what if housing inventory bumps in the spring now we have more houses with less buyers could housing prices fall yes but how much before you start inducing more buyers because as soon as prices start falling more buyers come out of the Woodworks because a lot of people are like okay when when's the bottom when when should I go buying uh so it's really interesting let's keep going with shifts here also means that people might rent out their house rather than just selling it right if it you know because if you sell it you lose the mortgage right it goes with the house and these mortgages are not assumable so the new buyer can't can't get it but the renter can benefit from your mortgage because you keep paying the mortgage and he gives you rent so we have that scenario right and so they keep their mortgages the ones that can continue to pay even though their home prices decline they will be less inclined to sell because obvious reasons even if we had a massive home price crash with the mortgage rates unless they were low too they would be paying more money for Less house yeah I mean if the market crashes and the FED is able to slash rates and mortgage rates come way down again that well that would change the dynamic but that also affects their they're if they have any Equity left over yeah but what happens to the people and the home prices of the ones that no matter what their interest rate they they bought it three and a half% but they still can't sustain the high prices for some reason saxs realy by the way is really interested in asking questions around the idea of it's going to crash right it's going to crash right and here Peter is basically saying yeah like of course there always going to be people with foreclosures we already pulled up the stats so just remember that chart we saw can be people even with a low mortgage that can't make the payment right because uh they lost their job or you know they they have a job but it's doesn't you know they're not earning as much uh and so there's still going to be people walking away there's still going to be forclosures now Peter shf is talking about housing prices coming down relative to gold now this is a fascinating idea because I don't disagree with this I'm a big fan uh and so far actually I agree with everything Peter shiff is saying uh I think that having your money exposed to the dollar is a terrible idea the dollar will almost always lose value in purchasing power you got to get out of the the Fiat currencies you could do that by owning assets or by uh by investing in in uh you know Commodities theoretically like gold I personally prefer assets which gold is an asset too but I personally prefer stocks in real estate so there is a chart though for real estate about pricing real estate to gold and you can see here how relative to Gold a real estate values today are a fraction of what they were in the uh early and mid 2000s what a weird like almost feels like perverted chart to look at uh and then of course as uh gold prices Rose in the recession uh and housing prices came down housing prices relative to gold and relative to Fiat came down you you saw this decline in housing values but when we look at where we are now relative to where we've been compared to Gold real estate I mean looking at this chart is almost cheap today that's wild I mean off of the bottom relative to Gold we were at a low of about 139 here we're about double call it 140 we're at about 280 right now right so we've gone up about double from 2011 that bottom to today relative to Gold however we are still 1ir of where we were in the mid-2000s era relative to gold now I'm not the biggest fan of using a chart like this uh so I think we have to kind of take it for what it's worth because housing feels ridiculously expensive right now but if you do listen to the shift argument and compared to Gold it doesn't feel that overvalued but all of us I mean like it's kind of frustrating looking at this chart because it's like but it's so unaffordable to buy a home right now how could it not be overvalued uh so a house that's $200,000 is a th000 ounces of gold right um now you might be able that house might go up from 200,000 to 300,000 but it might go from 1,000 ounces of gold to 500 ounces of gold right so it doesn't matter that the price has gone up in dollars it's it's half off in in real money and that and that gives you a better uh measure of of what's happening so do you think people right now if they're safe or they can afford the payment that it is wise for them to buy a house and that the next several years that we will see prices rise well I was telling people you know before rates went up to said look I mean buying a house is an okay deal if you get a 30-year mortgage in the threes because that's a great deal you know to get that's interesting Peter Shing saying hey look if you could get a 30-year mortgage with an interest rate around the threes go for it because you're basically shorting the dollar you're you're owning an asset and uh that asset goes up with inflation maybe slightly more than inflation but your debt state stays the same so the value goes up your debt stays the same which makes it easier to pay off in time so owning real estate is awesome especially if you can lock in long-term debt let's keep going that that cheap money so even if you overpay for your house it's okay because of how cheap the loan was um but now that the rates are higher it's not as you know clearcut you're paying 8% now instead of 3% right um but I still think that there's going to be a lot of inflation to wipe out the mor AG um so it might depend on you know time well where the house is you know what you're paying for it you know the neighborhood uh you know I I like to look at you know the construction costs or replacement costs I mean if you can buy a house for less than it would cost to build it and the land is free then it's like okay it makes sense cuz you know I got the land for free and I bought a house for less than it would cost me to build it real estate could be an investment if you buy it you know and it cash flows and you have tenants and you know you know it works the math Works where you get a good return on your money right you have positive cash flow uh and you know you can you can scale that up and it's an investment but just buying a home that you live in you you know it's not an investment because you know you're you're the property is depreciating over time wow this is some really interesting Insight from Peter Schiff I mean first of all you know if you trade house that you live in like a rental property it could be an investment the problem is most people end up over improving the place they live in and then they spend money in a way that they shouldn't we already know that uh but as far as location yeah Peter's also right like the value of land could go down and the value of real estate could go down if you buy in basically a bad area uh or or an area that's going bankrupt or a town that's going bankrupt or whatever which is actually very similar to what Grant Cardone says as well but Peter's primary argument here that's worth reacting to and highlighting is that Peter Schiff isn't actually suggesting that there would be a very large housing crash today because we're just not seeing distressed sellers yes volumes are down yeah there are foreclosures but there are always foreclosures and yes maybe inventory will go up but he's not actually seeing a big oh no housing market crash on the horizon again we've seen fluctuation in prices especially some covid markets again I can make it very clear for you we can look at charts it's so simple to see housing prices came down from Peak about 20% in a city like Austin bounced back about 10 now they're softening again a little bit this is just the volatility of postco adjusting are these really housing crashes or are they potentially just an opportunity to say hey you know what you're going to look for a really good deal in your neighborhood negotiate on it buy it and then once we get through the disas F that we've been facing of all of this uh political and economic and Federal Reserve and inflation uncertainty then we've got a property that hopefully can just be back on the real estate ride of rents stabilizing and slowly trending back up and creating value for people who buy them or people who live in them anyway my thoughts let me know what you think about what Peter Schiff said link down below and check out my programs on building your wealth at me kevin.com oh
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