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what's up everybody nate here so billionaire hedge fund manager bill ackman has had a lot to say over the last two years when the pandemic was first starting he went on tv and basically said that hell is coming and gave a dire warning for the entire united states if drastic actions weren't made right now he then also said in 2021 that the pandemic was actually going to be good for businesses now in 2022 he is back at it except he's not talking about the pandemic anymore he's talking about the russia ukraine war and he basically said that russia's invasion of ukraine means that world war three has likely already started now that is not a statement to take lightly and it has massive implications on worldwide economies and human life all across the globe so today i want to kind of go over a little bit of bill ackman's thoughts when it comes to what is happening right now and what could be coming next i want to get my reactions to an interview that he had with cnbc regarding the issue and i'll kind of walk you through if this is a crazy statement or something that is actually pretty possible but before i get into all of that do me a quick favor and hit smash or destroy that thumbs up button below and ring that notification bell too both of those two things are completely free and they help to show me that you like this video and you want to see even more just like it thank you so much for doing that now let's talk all about bill ackman and his thoughts on the russia ukraine situation so i want to start with a quote from bill ackman here he posted on twitter quote in january 2020 i had nightmares about the potential for a pandemic but everyone seemed to think i was crazy i am having similar nightmares right now so this is actually really crazy because i remember watching bill ackman on tv live i think it was cnbc or maybe cnn but regardless i was literally watching him make this plea to the united states federal government and current sitting president donald trump back then he basically said that the entire economy needs to shut down to stop the fallout from a potential pandemic in this interview he basically was breaking down he was talking about how thousands if not millions of people are going to die because of this virus and they can't believe that the stock market and investors are still continuing to focus on earnings reports of potential ipos now it's important to mention that during that time there was only a few thousand virus cases in the united states it wasn't really widespread in our country yet however in china and other parts of the world it was spreading rapidly that's part of the reason why it came over here in the first place and in a way bill ackman was right in about march and april of 2020 the united states went into full-blown lockdown we're talking social distancing orders and economic lockdowns this was to stop the spread during that time we had just a short amount of economic lockdowns to say we're going to spend six weeks to stop the spread well looking back i don't think that really worked so bill ackman was right about that and now he's basically using that to frame that he is right about this potential new conflict emerging in europe bill ackman also tweeted quote world war three has likely started already but we have been slow to recognize it he went on to say that much more we can do before we enter a hot war with russia now i think what bill ackman is getting at here is that this is kind of the start of what could be a further conflict with russia and the countries of nato the whole basis for russia invading ukraine is for three major reasons for one ukraine was about to become a brand new nato country it means it gets all the perks of being in nato which includes military protection from all of the other nato countries which just so happens to be the united states and united kingdom russia didn't like that especially since ukraine literally borders its country they didn't want that kind of support right next to their own forces so in order to stop that they basically told ukraine if they continue to try and become a nato country then they're going to take them over and that's exactly what happened the second is because russia while it's one of the biggest countries in the world is pretty isolated as far as trading goes because while it's extremely large it's also extremely cold can't exactly get ships in and out of it in every single place they were afraid that if ukraine became a part of nato then they would start having a little bit more strength against russia they wouldn't allow them to use their ports to trade goods and services anymore and if they did they would basically make it extremely expensive to do so so the russian government invaded so that way they could just avoid that situation altogether and number three parts that are now ukraine actually used to be a part of the soviet union and then the ussr this was way back in the day but when the ussr and soviet union ended up falling all of those neighboring countries around russia gained their independence ukraine was one of them so russia basically sees ukraine as a part of its own country and has for a very long time now how does that kind of fit in with bill ackman's narrative here well he's saying that russia is not going to stop with just invading ukraine it's also going to seek conflict with other neighboring countries those neighboring countries of ukraine are also part of nato and since russia has invaded ukraine the united states government and governments all around the world have sent troops to defend those nato countries they have not actually put troops into ukraine at this moment but they're on the surrounding borders just in case russia decides to go even further bilakman believes that this is exactly what's going to happen russia is going to start getting into conflicts with those other countries which is basically going to force the united states and other nato countries to join the conflict this is because of article 5 of the nato treaty that an attack on one is an attack on all and the reason he says that this is a bigger deal than just russia actually wanting more countries and more space is because he believes the united states has already provoked putin with all of its economic sanctions at this moment russian economy is sinking the ruble basically the russian dollar is worth less than one penny when compared to us money in addition markets in russia are completely collapsing like their stock market isn't even open because of how far it's gone down in such a short time not only that but regular consumers and citizens of russia are feeling the heat too because their money is basically useless and major companies like mastercard and visa and mcdonald's and apple are all pulling their services from russia so now people can't even use the money that they have to buy things what's worse the united states has been targeting the central bank of russia with its economic sanctions this means that the wealthiest russians and their oligarchs are losing their assets and losing money hand over fists bilakman believes that this is basically forcing russia to get even angrier they're not angry with ukraine at that particular moment they're angry with the rest of the world so nato is provoking a attack from this perspective and it basically shows that we are supporting ukraine here and russia doesn't really like that now while i do kind of half agree with bill ackman i also mostly disagree because the united states and the rest of the world can't simply do nothing when a world power like russia is invading a much smaller country i mean short of going to war with russia we've pretty much done everything that we can do and that's not necessarily showing support for ukraine i mean the united states government has come out and said they support ukraine but the sanctions are more showing a disapproval for what russia is doing if they were invading any country in the world i think the united states and the rest of the world would have similar economic sanctions i think that this would still be a massive hit to the russian economy no matter what they did because to do something like this in 2022 is completely wrong and vile bill ackman also said though that quote u.s could stop the absurdity of buying oil from russia and funding the war europe could follow suit once demand for gas declines in the spring so that kind of contradicts what bill ackman just said because yes the united states was still purchasing oil from russia we have recently banned russian imports of oil in our country however doing that basically provokes them because russia immediately responded to all of these oil bans saying that they are completely ready and now the price of oil per barrel could go up to around 300 they now plan on reallocating those resources to other countries and they didn't particularly say where but one could guess they were talking about china here china hasn't been a complete enemy to russia during this whole invasion i mean they haven't exactly supported them but they are somehow neutral but bill ackman actually goes on here to say that the ukraine government because of other governments in the world and their own power have actually been able to keep russia at bay but in his mind this can only go on for so long because the further it goes on the more ukraine is going to anger the russian government here he's saying that ukraine will do whatever it takes to win the war however russia will also do whatever it takes that could mean turning this into a nuclear conflict as russia has already started to attack and take over pretty much all of ukraine's nuclear power plants so nothing has been deployed yet but that basically means that the chances are getting bigger every single day and that could have massive implications for the rest of the world not really sure how the rest of the world would respond if things got that bad blackman believes that russia could do even more because vladimir putin has global aspirations for world domination this is not the first time over the last few decades that russia has tried to take over a neighboring country they invaded parts of georgia in 2008 they also invaded an annexed crimea which was part of ukraine back in 2014 and now they're going after the rest of ukraine so this is not the first time that we've seen this russia could continue to get riskier and riskier with their bets and start taking even more of the world that would mean that trade routes for europe and the united states get completely cut off especially after all of this that has happened between nato and russia they could essentially block the united states from a lot of key resources and that's not going to make the united states happy further escalating a conflict between nato and russia so what exactly does bill ackman think is coming next and does he actually offer any solutions current conflict that could prevent a potential world war well he believes that this conflict is only going to get worse for ukraine and it's eventually going to lead to partial if not complete russian control of the region he says that western countries like the united states and nato nations need to use every single economic sanction they have available against russia while also financially supporting ukraine as much as possible that can hopefully deter russia enough so that way they stop invading ukraine and it shows that the entire rest of the world is taking this situation extremely seriously he says that if all else fails the united states and nato needs to enforce a no-fly zone over ukraine now to me that's pretty much impossible because that basically would send us into a war even quicker because if you say there's a no-fly zone you actually have to enforce it you can't just say it and then do nothing meaning the united states is going to have to funnel even more money into those countries because now you have basically what is starting to become a war in the region but bill achman is optimistic that a solution can be found he said quote the only optimistic way i can see out of this war is for china to step in and broker a real ceasefire and settlement in the settlement the ukrainians could agree that they will never join nato russia in turn can withdrawal and the sanctions can be reversed however i don't really think it's going to be that easy i mean we basically can't just say that russia has stopped invading so everything can go back to normal normal cannot be achieved after a war like this we can't just immediately go back to funding russia by buying its oil and removing all of the sanctions right away that would basically mean that they meant nothing in the first place i mean we're talking about thousands upon thousands of lives lost here this goes way beyond money we also talk about a country like ukraine that is now completely destroyed that's not going to be fixed overnight and some estimates are saying that the damage that has already been done is well into the tens of billions of dollars and this war has only been going on for around two and a half weeks so we can't exactly just leave ukraine to be built while russia just continues to get funding from the rest of the world it's not that simple a lot of steps are going to have to be taken and i expect economic sanctions to last for a very long time i mean the united states has completely banned imports of russian oil and while europe is starting to do the same they want to completely wean themselves off of russian oil by sometime at the end of this year that means that even if this conflict ends they don't want to use russian oil anymore which is a huge revenue source for russia but when we kind of bring china in the mix things get a little more complicated bill ackman says putin respects and likely fears china china can elevate itself on the world stage by helping to resolve this crisis and in a way i do agree with him i think china is a rising superpower and they just like the united states have a really strong military and are a lot closer in the region to be able to have some kind of influence over the situation in addition they're not really a part of nato and they are still one of the major countries that are trading goods and services with russia if that kind of ends then now you have china and nato against russia and that would basically mean russia is done for in addition there's a lot of trading and economic resources over in that region of the world and russia and china are the two superpowers over there they both have influence over each other so if china was to step in then that could help the rest of the world out greatly however that kind of assumes that china is going to be against what russia is doing here right now there is no real evidence for that for one they're still trading with them they're still supplying and funding the russian government number two it was kind of revealed after russia invaded ukraine that china kind of knew kind of knew the time frame of when this invasion was coming and didn't bother to tell any other countries in the world china's president met with the russian president and basically said that they should wait to invade ukraine until after the olympics were over like i said while china hasn't directly supported russia in their measures they haven't exactly opposed them either meaning that there is a potential as china is a rising superpower for them to see this as a moment to become even larger and gain even bigger influence they could actually join russia and bolster the fight further growing their economic activity and cementing them as a real threat to the current world power the united states and china is kind of watching what happens between russia and ukraine and also the response from the rest of the world right now they have an extremely similar situation in taiwan taiwan used to be a part of china but for a long time now it's been its own country china doesn't see it that way though and they've talked about unifying china and taiwan sometime soon that would basically mean that they would need to invade because taiwan does not want to be a part of china in fact it is its own independent diplomatic nation so eventually that could be coming next you could have a russian invasion of ukraine and also a pretty serious chinese invasion of taiwan this puts the united states in a difficult situation because we have so much trade between china if we start putting economic sanctions on them they could do the same to us which would drastically affect our economy almost immediately but again they can't sit by and do nothing because doing nothing basically shows that the united states is okay with it and that we're starting to have less influence in the world and china is having more influence other countries are going to see that too and they're going to want to start partnering with china rather than us this is obviously a super big geopolitical and worldwide economic problem and i'm kind of oversimplifying the things that could potentially happen in the future obviously we don't know how these economic sanctions and how this war is going to escalate there's a lot that still needs to happen for all countries throughout the world but according to bill ackman the seeds of world war 3 have already been planted on our planet and while he's optimistic that things can change he believes that things are going to get way worse before they get better but now i want to hear from you on this issue what do you think about bill ackman and his thoughts about the russia ukraine war do you think that things are going to get a lot more serious in the region and that china could eventually become involved in one way or another or do you think that bill ackman is completely wrong here and that the war is not going to escalate beyond where it is right now whatever your thoughts are leave a comment below before you go but that is it for today's business and financial news breakdown thank you so much for watching if you want to stay up to date with all of the top business and financial news from around the country our team puts together a free daily newsletter and you can subscribe to it by clicking the link in this corner right here and if you want to stay up to date with me and everything else happening in the business and financial world i'm putting out uploads seven days a week over on this channel and i've actually got another one ready for you right here so be sure to check that out before you go that is it for me everybody be kind out there and i'll see you all in the next one
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