Ray Dalio: Don't Own Bonds, Don't Own Cash

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결론: 레이 달리오는 중앙은행의 대규모 유동성 공급으로 채권·현금의 매력이 낮아졌다며 채권과 현금을 보유하지 말라고 주장한다. 포트폴리오 원칙: 불확실성과 위험이 큰 시기에는 통화(기축통화 포함)·자산군·국가를 분산하고, 유동성을 확보해 상황 변화에 대응하며, 차별화(질서 있는 국가와 파산·무질서한 국가의 구분)가 가장 중요하다고 강조한다. 차별화 근거: 기업·국가의 재무제표에서 소득 대비 지출, 자산 대비 부채를 보면 재정 상태가 크게 갈린다. 돈을 찍어 배포하는 주체와 가까운지에 따라 수혜 여부도 다르며, 제3세계는 이 혜택을 받지 못해 재정이 어렵다고 본다. 사회·정치적 질서: 바이러스를 통제하고 질서 있게 협력하는 국가는 시장에도 차별적으로 반영된다고 본다. 밸류에이션: 주식 PER이 닷컴 버블 이후 최고 수준이고 제로금리인 상황에서 주식이 신고가를 경신하는 현상에 대해, 중앙은행의 유동성 공급이 채권 시장을 100배 수준의 배수로 끌어올렸기 때문에 주식 배수를 채권 배수와 비교해야 하며 과거 배수로 비싸다고 판단하면 안 된다고 주장한다. 레버리지·자본흐름: 제로금리에서 무언가 조금이라도 수익을 내면 차입이 늘어나고 레버리지가 확대되며, 이것이 최근 시장 움직임과 자본 흐름 변화를 설명한다. 중국 시장 개방에 따라 자본이 중국으로도 이동하고 있다고 언급한다. 대상 자산 예측: 명시적인 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없으며, 채권·현금 비보유(채권·현금 비중 축소)라는 중기적 관점이 주된 발언이다. 주식·금 등 개별 자산에 대한 구체적 목표가나 방향 언급은 없다. 출연자 전망: 달리오는 질서 있는 국가·기업과 무질서한 국가·기업의 차별화가 심화될 것이며, 현재의 높은 밸류에이션은 유동성 환경을 감안하면 합리적이라고 본다.

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01. could you give us a little more on that idea how does bridgewater adapt to the new world order that you've been thinking about for a long time i should add anybody who is familiar with your writing and your speaking knows that so i presume that some of the things that you're doing have been in the works for a little while but nevertheless here we are uh you know in november 2020 um and it it it's a different it's a different place than we were 11 months ago answer your question there's there's a business answer to the question how do we do operate business-wise and also portfolio i'd like to emphasize the portfolio because i think that's probably most relevant to other people um i um there there's a period of uh i think great uncertainty and great risk um and so um i think there are three words um diversification um liquidity and then differentiation um we uh we want to get we want to make sure that our investors are not uh just concentrated in some of the traditional markets so diversification of how to do that well can reduce risk without reducing uh opportunity and that means currency diversification including the reserve currencies how much exposure is to the reserve currencies but it means currency diversification has asset class diversification country diversification and that should be the starting point of portfolios in terms of liquidity it allows you the flexibility to change as circumstances change and differentiation is the most important consideration now there are two different worlds there are worlds that will be orderly and will prosper in this kind of an environment and you could see it when that differentiation versus other worlds and markets related to that that will uh be bankrupt and disorderly that kind of differentiation's important as far as the business goes um we have um you know the different location considerations and long relationships that we're building on uh ray i'm gonna ask you to continue because you just said something that that at the very least interested me this idea of bankruptcy and disorderliness where do you see that well you could see it um it's reflected in the income statements in balance sheet every individual every company every country um is they're good how well they are depends on how much their income is relative to their expenses and how much their assets are relative to their liabilities so you can see radical differences in the financial consequences of that second the ability the the proximity to those who are printing and distributing money are you a recipient of that for example a lot of the third world is not a recipient of that and is not in good financial situations and then there's order uh political and also social order so it when you could see it differentiated in the countries that are controlling the virus and behaving orderly and well together so you could see those differentiations reflected in the markets behavior and you can also see it reflected in the political and social conditions well we know that markets are discounting mechanisms ray i don't need to tell you interest rates at zero but i'll remind everybody that stocks keep rising to new records and not just here in the united states but globally p e ratios haven't been this high since the dot-com era the dollar to your point about currencies ray has slumped to a two and a half year low do asset prices and valuations make sense given the economic fundamentals some of which we've talked about here in this panel discussion and for that matter the policy outlook and what we can expect from a biden administration ray what do you think um you know when we look at interest rate uh markets we we look at the earnings yield when we look at stocks and we look at pes they're they're basically yields and um the capacity of central banks to pro to print money and buy financial assets has essentially let the bond market to go to multiples that are somewhere between 100 times you know you put a dot you put a dollar out and you'll get your money back in a hundred years it's because of the nature of so it's as a hundred time multiple you have to compare stock multiples to bond multiples and so the capacity of central banks to put liquidity into the system and to have that liquidity go to um produce high multiples is very real it also changes the economics of borrowing in other words if you can find something that makes anything more than a zero or they're going to make money so that encourages the leveraging and the changes so the financial flows that we're seeing the market behavior is reflective of that i in my opinion don't own bonds and don't own cash because they're producing a lot of debt and producing a lot of money to fund it and so that's changing the nature of capital flows it's also changing how those flows go to china in terms of the comparison of that market particularly as it opens up so i think it's behaving sensibly but don't use old multiples as reflections of the limitations of what's expensive