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hey everyone me Kevin here breaking news out of Tesla that Tesla is now requiring FSD demo drives as part of your delivery experience when you purchase a Tesla now there are a lot of mixed feelings about this from some people believing that this is sales pressure and will add to what should otherwise be a pretty seamless delivery experience other people say no this is exactly what's needed to actually get to mainstream FSD adoption there are a lot of ideas and opinions on both sides of the aisle and so what we're going to do in this video is we're going to break those down I do want to start by doing a bit of a delivery update here uh and then we're going to as in number of deliveries and then we'll get into the actual FSD uh numbers shout out by the way to those course members who jumped on with that lucid trade with me this morning and kicked a butt we're up about 40% within 20 minutes if you want alerts like these make sure to join the stocks and psychology of money group that was a nice day okay okay let's get into this so I broke this down on eack and what what I wrote down is that a few things Barclays has a q1 delivery Target of 420 to 420,000 Vehicles this is the lowest I've seen so far from the street and barklay suggests that we might see some more seasonal sensitivity for Tesla deliveries in q1 and Q2 so prep for a harder q1 and Q2 in the future now that the growth rate isn't meteoric anymore for Tesla this is actually going to be really important as a longrun Tesla investor if that's you then you should keep in mind that q1 Q2 might be the harder quarters going forward this is an interesting argument I haven't heard of before but it makes sense since a lot of folks are going for those uh end of the year car buying spre especially since you go through Labor Day Black Friday Christmas a lot of excuses to treat yourself to a new car so interesting not about seasonality we've also got a subsidy rollof in Germany France and of course the $7,500 roll off for the model 3 in the United States but to offset that we do have a point of sale Credit Now for the vehicles that do get the credit and for the people who do qualify which means you're getting those credits up front which is a good thing it's nice not to have to wait a year to get the money you're entitled to of course this morning we had reports about byd cutting prices again on over 100 at different models in siomi following suit something that's driving more price competition in Tesla or for Tesla in China some folks are saying Elon Musk may have started the price competition but China will end it well to the extent that they can given that they're really competing in Europe and China versus the United States where we're likely to have a lot of protectionism limiting the impact of Chinese vehicles in the United States of course Barclays also points out disruptions in Berlin and and suggests that if we get a q1 run rate of around 420,000 we're probably only or call it even 425 we're only looking at about 1.7 million units for the year which is not great because 1.7 million units for the year that's if you annualize q1 Q3 Q4 should obviously be a lot higher but if you were to annualize a q1 you'd be down 6% on annual deliveries that would not be great baras calls this quite negative my guess is if we continue to receive no guidance from Tesla we're probably if you're a Tesla shareholder you're probably going to really have to buckle up for q1 Q2 earnings before you start getting some positive momentum and that positive momentum should align with when rate Cuts begin if they indeed begin this year so really getting to like July to September is probably the target for where you want to start re-evaluating okay is this really the time to buy the dip do you save some cash now buy the the dip then or is the dip now and do you buy now is the market already pre- pricing all of that in we'll see Goldman Sachs reiterates that we're in between growth curves this is something we've heard on the earnings calls Goldman Sachs after their visits uh visit to the Tesla and rivan Facilities argues that uh Tesla should remain positive on a free cash flow basis and ultimately monetizing software is key and how interesting monetizing software is exactly what it appears to be uh Tesla is trying to do with the the following email now you'll note that the email was sent at 2: a.m.
personally I think there's like a 1.7% chance that Elon sent this email at exactly 2 a.m. mostly I just did 1 divided by 60 there which is about 1.7% now let's say he did this to sort of be ironic then maybe call it a 30% chance Elon purposefully hit send at 2 a.m. personally I think it was a scheduled send this is something you kind of write later in the evening and then you schedule send it makes it kind of seem like you're working it's part of the pr part of the marketing fine not that this really matters but a lot of people were commenting on that so I thought I'd address that ilamas says going forward it is mandatory in North America to install an activate FSD 1231 and take customers on a short test ride before handing over the car almost no one actually realizes how well supervised FSD actually works I know this will slow down the delivery process but it is nonetheless a hard requirement okay few things here first of all I love 123 123 is way better than what I've experienced with 121 big fan I will say there are some parts where I I know the car is probably looking ahead I'm guessing it's looking ahead and so I I expect everything is fine but I'll give you an example of a 123 drive not a 12 3.1 drive just to give you a little bit of uh an example of two parts where you kind of kind of notice okay this is kind of where the car has still a little bit of work to do and honestly that's very very little if this is the limit or the work that we still have left to do we've got like not much left to do so first of all i' just like to shout out that this is a version 123 right here it is really good it's not even 1231 yet and it's phenomenal I did about a 13-minute video no takeovers no interventions it's by far one of the best uh FSD versions that I found it does like to cut curves a little tight so sometimes I get a little nervous that I'm going to end up clipping the side of the curb and I've seen some other folks on social media talking about doing exactly that uh and so that's just something that'll get fine-tuned over time obviously we don't want that to happen uh but that's why this is a supervised FSD uh Beta release right now what I want to show here are the two leftover challenging points and I think the easiest thing to do is just sort of listen to me on these and then you can kind of see it happening uh as it's happening live here we oh my gosh chill out would you there we go okay slowing down a little hardcore here I do have traffic behind me that's pretty natural that was nice quickly got in that right lane so trafficing pass me this is not a stop this is a yield come on come on go go go why are we going so slowly why that is one thing that I talk about in this video is that when it sneaks up to red lights or stop signs it is very slow at getting to the stop line but I also acknowledge in the video that it's probably better to be safer than sorry obviously especially before pedestrian lines and it's good for robo taxi now here's a part that gets a little weird and I call it out as it happens but the car probably saw uh I want to take the next one okay good that's the unprotected left here so let's see if we get traffic and how it does and not only is an unprotected left we don't even have a lane so oh my gosh I'm so scared I'm going to put my hand here cuz that car is going to turn and then there's another car behind it please don't go please don't go please don't go we can't see behind it you dumbass oh my go I maybe it's saw maybe it's saw that scared the crap out of me again I say da but I'm like that was scary because if you look back I could not see and I've looked and played back on this I don't see the visualization here coming for the vehicle behind that we could kind of see this on the frame by frame right here if we zoom in we don't see another vehicle coming uh in the frame by frame until I think here there we go I see a small dot here so maybe we do see it see that tiny little dot there but my concern is what what if somebody was pulling out right here right in the blind spot of the vehicle I suppose we could have turned and then stopped here but let's just say this like uncertainty was scary again a car could have pulled out from here even even though we were tracking this one and again I suppose we could have stopped here but boy so there are a couple of scenarios or at least I'm still like okay I'm usually really comfortable with FSD I've been using FSD uh and autopilot for over seven years now which is crazy actually it's over six years I'm on my seventh year essentially uh cuz I got the car in 2017 so I haven't quite lapped it yet uh and I'm I love this I mean it is the best ads system that exists out there but yeah you probably don't want to take new drivers on specific encounters like that and you kind of got to supervise where the car's strengths are and where the car's weaknesses are see in my opinion there are probably a lot of people who look at FSD and say like I I hear it's good but I'm too afraid to try it and I think that's probably what Elon Musk sort of forcing this trial will help accomplish for Tesla is getting people wared up to the idea of okay all right I can use this in a supervised Manner and when I feel uncomfortable I can take over and drive just like normal now I do think that's fair entirely fair but let's run through this a little bit and think through this logically and what this means for the stock ultimately so I broke this all down over at ec.com so this is obviously going to increase time and labor costs I do some quick calculations here on how much it's going to cost my guess is it's going to cost about $7.5 million per quarter in additional labor costs assuming an extra 20 to 30 minutes per delivery for each vehicle that's assuming every single vehicle gets about 20 to 30 additional minutes of uh demonstration time versus the Express Deliveries we have now a lot of the delivery today is done by you going into your app pre-signing things uploading documents and frankly when you get there to pick up your Tesla usually you exchange a few words you get in your car and go it's actually an extremely seamless delivery experience but now you have to wait for somebody somebody comes to you then you have to introduce yourself they'll probably run some Basics through with you then somebody has to decide do you want to drive do they want to drive do you want to take turns driving realistically it's probably between you know you're not going to be able to assembly line this too easily you're probably looking about 30 minutes per uh delivery demonstration but again this isn't necessarily that big of a deal because you're selling an extremely high margin product to where even if you just convert at full price point 15% of people you pay for the extra labor costs but I honestly think the conversion rate could be substantially higher than this so for the long term I'm actually pretty bullish in people getting that extra push to trying this out so I'm not bearish on this this is a long run good thing now I do think eventually uh they will have to reduce the price of FSD so there is a concern that I have that Elon is potentially pushing this to sell more FSD rather than reducing the price I want to see the price go down and do the demos the FSD price should be substantially lower my opinion now I do also wonder is there a concern over low take rates where Elon Musk is potentially trying to blame the sales team or is he just simply suggesting hey the sales team hasn't been asked to prioritize this in the past let's now prioritize it and see if we can upsell some subscriptions personally I think the best time to do this sort of FS demo testing would be in a test drive up front so people can buy the car with FSD already because they got to have it now you could Finance it you could build it into the cost of the vehicle rather than yay I'm taking delivery oh now I kind of wish I finance that right so I mean I guess you could always go for the $200 a month option but again even that option 200 bucks a month is a lot should be lower quite significantly lower and then I think the take rate would go up substantially and if it was 600 bucks a year you know pay in full for a year get 100 bucks off $4.99 or whatever you know something around the price of one of the meet Kevin wealth building courses or whatever over at me kevin.com or a ticket to the millionaire Symposium right that's kind of where the price should be 12,000 bucks it's tough because it's you know people aren't as familiar yet with this FSD so uh you do have a little bit and that's the whole point of this right is to get people more familiar I do think there should probably be an opt out but let's look at what some people are saying in the commentary first of all Elon Musk acknowledges there is some calibration time risk is usually when you get your first Tesla you have to calibrate the cameras first for the car and that could take some time I'm not exactly sure how that pre- calibrating is going to be done at the delivery centers that could be a little Annoying uh Omar creates a joke here and Elon says we does acknowledge that we do need to trim down that time frame for calibrating but here's some commentary or here is some commentary from some folks maybe delivery staff have more time to sell now since they're delivering less somebody else says this is very high margin so this could be a great opportunity to make more money for Tesla I agree with that upfront FSD demos might be better also agree with that you could do both though some people say well you're not really getting sold you're just being shown a feature of the car it's not like it's supposed to be high pressure sales but some people if there's no opt out will feel pressured like hey this is a waste of my time I either want it and I have it or I don't want it and I don't want it right uh it also comes at the same time as Facebook is moving into sorry Tesla is moving into Facebook ads in Mass which does cater to an older demographic so maybe you're educating a new demographic on FSD though there are still going to be a lot of people even after a demo who just don't trust it but again you really only need to break a 15 basis point conversion rate above the number of people who would have gotten FSD anyway to break even on this so personally I think I'm actually long-term bullish on this I think long-term the little Kinks like being slow going up to a red or the uh you know the the sort of scary unprotected left uh you know the these sort of encounters I think you'll get a less of those I'm also a little jaded on my 12.3 experience with that left turn because I did have a very scary 12.1 experience where the car almost tried to drive in front of a very fast traveling car uh and I had to slam on the brakes to overtake the car was not going to stop it was literally accelerating into their leg uh and it was it was a two-lane road so I was halfway in one of the first Lanes uh and and they were able to pass on sort of their right lane anyway that's 121 so I don't expect that to happen anymore uh and I think like the Curbing and again the slowness at stops and and these uh Edge case scenarios of these these left turns will normalize and these are areas where you're paying attention to the car more anyway but I will say in that video clip I showed had I had a passenger on the right side of the vehicle I would have hit the brakes on that one I would not have felt comfor able making that left turn without being able to confirm that there wasn't another vehicle pulling out of a lot and then driving straight but again maybe the car is able to see things from different angles that I can't see it didn't make me feel comfortable though and I feel like I'm a generally a pretty good tester of this stuff so um as far as what I think this actually does for the stock in the short term q1 Q2 probably very little we usually get sort of like by the dipping when we get news announcements like this but those are usually offset by negative news like price Cuts in across the board or Price Cuts in uh uh in in China or deliveries missing estimates or earnings so for me if I was looking for buy the dip opportunity this is not the news that I think really catapults the stock to new highs however in in the long term like 25 26 as this becomes more mass adopted I'm much more enthusiastic the question though is Will other manufacturers using nvidia's data set be able to get to version FSD 121 much quicker than it took Tesla to get to 121 remember Tesla went end to end neural net with version 12 so version 12 is really like version one well if another company uses the same amount of data that maybe they've been collecting maybe not we don't know the argument is that Nvidia has already been collecting this sort of data if let's say they have been then they could probably get to a version 1 pretty quickly which would be the equivalent of a version 12 of Tesla now Tesla's still ahead they're at 123 now they're at 12 3.1 now and they're going to be at 12.4 soon so Tesla's got to keep this lead going and I think maybe that's another thing that Tesla's going for here is if we could get more people using FSD we could sort of lock in that that that lead that Tesla does undeniably have right now so definitely believe in this so more feedback for the AI team good thing could also help boost margin I really don't think it's really going to show up in margin until probably a year or two from now again I don't think the costs of actually doing this are that meaningful relative to the margin that Tesla could yield from this so I'm actually a fan of doing this and I think it's a long run benefit to Tesla shortterm I remain unconvinced ad d
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