원문 보기
after reviewing all of your feedback from recent calls we got to pivot a bit on today's call and provide the club members with a rundown of the top 10 stocks in the portfolio that we would purchase right now if we were not restricted or if we did not already own large positions think of these as a starting point for those of either new to the club or been looking to get into new names because you kind of miss what we have alright before we get to it we want to remind members that real portfolio management which is what this club is designed to teach you is all about finding the right balance between analysis and timing conviction and maybe the most important humility this balance is why we have taken a long-term approach toward building a portfolio as oddities within the broader market or macro economy that impact individual stocks in the short term eventually do smooth out allowing company fent fundamentals to rule the trajectory of a stock over the long long term we understand that individual investors simply do not have the resources the big hedge funds do that allow them to trade in and out of names on a daily or even hourly basis we are so not that but we cannot ignore timing we all know it is the secret sauce required to get the most out of our investments and that's what we want to do it to address today with our top 10 list we always aim to get the best entry point on a stock as possible which is why we scale in the positions over a period of time many covered by almost all my books even including the first one real money after of course well you know Street attic we allow ourselves room to play against the macro factors in the market you can read more about this idea in our forum please go to the forum where we directly answer club members questions for everybody but timing is especially tricky for the trust given all the myriad restrictions that we must abide by and this is why we created the club format to tell you everything would be doing even we can't do it at that moment in time because that unfortunately the trust does not reflect well it barely reflects at times what we're telling you to do because of the restrictions and that's just too bad I'd like to make more money for charity but I got to play by the rules even though we're not always able to act as nimbly as we would like our goal is to provide you with as much information as possible so that you can be nimble in the way that we would to be in an ideal world in this fragile market and it is fragile after I gave you the three bears you know that the ability to be nimble is something that cannot be overlooked and trading in recent weeks has provided some great opportunities for you to capitalize this is where our top 10 list comes into play providing you with good entry points right now with upside in the near term as well as the power to continue going into the future we have chosen names from different sectors to provide you with the opportunity to diversify again I know we want that not only in terms of industry exposure but also when it comes to short term versus long term catalyst all this is my blessing to you to purchase my 10 favorite names in the portfolio right now so without further ado pencil and paper please here they go alright the ECU which is the European ETF ABG o which is Broadcom a Google we like the elk I'm for voting rights Abbott Danaher TJX yep we're sticking by it Comcast my other employer new core of pre announced or not key a bank even though we know that the banks are trading down and then MMP our loan oil play that has big yield that I want you in now I'm going to go through each of these to give you some more background and more importantly explain why we like each right now but I also encourage members to reread our recent bulletins don't we stay on top of our analysis as their bones are where we piece together the driving forces of the market to establish a narrative across the whole market of course the Bolton's are much more easy to access as we change and did the redesign which again was something you asked for and we gave you the votes what you did what you told us to do we did oh these names you're looking up if it can be found in recent trade alerts pulls and of course investment ideas and don't forget our round up at the end of the week all right first up is the portfolio's only ETF and that's the easy you that's the iShares MSCI eurozone ETF this is an unhedged European markets ETF meaning you gain exposure to movements in the euro currency as well as the European market overall as we've mentioned in the past we think Europe is getting ready to really pick up speed and we want that exposure not just to the stocks but to the Euro we don't want to miss out on building strength in the currency I think the carters is real most important we want broad exposure to companies based on the EU as we do not want to be specifically tied to a sector or region they may be lagging the entire recovery and that's why we like the ECU it provides a passive way to gain exposure to the European market and the euro currency without the need to bet on one specific company that may turned out to be the wrong one it provides for diversity across companies as well as regions does not require individual investors to follow trading overseas throughout all hours of the day that's why I like it I just came back from Italy by the way I feel like the euro is so cheap and Italy is really coming back but that's Spain's coming back France is coming back Germany's already been back we'll be one of the specific companies we like we will start with the most recent dish in the portfolio Broadcom limited symbol AVG Oh which is oh geez look at this thing I'm this thing can't be says 242 we just added this name down about 10 points from here but that's ok that's ok because remember if it's like a 24 thing of it is a $24 stock divided by 10 you've missed the point okay that's all you've missed the point 1/2 and that's how I always did it when you have a 24 hours talk to buy buy 10 you realize that maybe you're not so author even if it's up 10 we continue think it's still attractive at these levels company develops designs and globally supply semiconductor devices across a bunch of segments quitting wired Wireless and enterprise you can read our initiation analysis from last week for more details long term we like broad commas it's diversified semiconductor company not necessarily hamstrung by the predictable cyclicality of other more siloed players Broadcom can benefit from the increasing worldwide demand for data in the next decade alone data levels are expected to grow by approximately 40 percent year I think that's a conservative view a trend that Broadcom can capitalize on thanks to its growing scale recall that procon Malvika merger how good it was and leadership and innovation near-term we cannot overlook the eight Avago Broadcom chips that are expected to be inside the upcoming highly anticipated iPhone 8 the benefits of this seem to have been forgotten in the recent tech pullback please remember I am not caring about app which we know we own about about delay a possible of Apple the iPhone 8 don't get it there consumer product come they're not gonna release it until it's right any pullback in procom would be quite welcome to buy we're also big fans of alphabet goog l and as we communicated last week when we said listen this is time for seven about 30 points ago we think the recent week this is made for a very attractive entry point yes the stock may have been hit by the news that the European Commission is slapping the search chime with a record 2.7 billion dollar fine I hope what the self was exacerbated by what was going on in the broader tech space regardless every time the stock takes a hit it bounces back and that's simply because it's got so much going for it as we have written over and over again in recent bulletins remember when all the advertisers were pulling out of YouTube all that put quotes around that back in March sending the stock down 40 points in a matter of weeks what an opportunity that was very few pulled out some people say no pull out and as we told members that's exactly what would happen one month after hitting the lows the stock was trading back above the level before the so-called scandal we all know what happened next heirs would want to use run after another dominant quarter from the company eventually break 1,000 bucks this recent pullback has the same type of look Google's fundamentals remain intact near-term we love the company's incredibly strong online ad dominance longer term so it's away from just the 660 billion dollar ad market if the company's constant push to increase revenue diversity that gets us really excited that something repor at the CFO has been pushing whether it's way mo the dominant autonomous car YouTube the prog which is just you don't going to be monetized to heck out of in the last next few years proprietary machine learning I've seen it myself artificial intelligence been there looked at Google cloud which they think is hidden look a lot of companies are taking Google cloud get the ones by the way that Walmart doesn't want to use the Amazon Cloud for or the hardware business accused engender loyalty the Google brand alphabet CFO poor ad has had a clearly defined path for success minimize the companies that lose a lot of money in the moonshots maximize the ones that make a lot this is a real powerhouse for the digital age and the stock is a long-term winner the dip seemed to be taking advantage of moving right along let's talk about a healthcare name we recently added Abbott Labs abt we wish to stock at and run up almost immediately after we initiated so we could have built a large position but we continue to believe the shares are attractive right here I missed up 40 cents today would have been had it been down a dollar say we probably would have been in there near-term we expect the company to benefit from two recent deals the Alire deal which boosts benefits poplar virtually ignored in the current valuation because Abbot fought like heck to not close that deal and I think they did fine more importantly st.
Jude whose medical device business is adding new life to Abbott and when they can compete against Medtronic don't believe by the way these stories would say that it's Kabul by recalls do believe the fact that the FDA is gonna give it a little more leeway looking further out the company as a strong pipeline when we facing easier year-over-year calms moving forward one of the reasons why we picked it up now lapping some difficult issues in Venezuela facing easier compares for China's nutrition segment as a bonus the company has increase its dividend payout for 45 consecutive years generations nearly 70% of its revenue abroad offering solid diversification boy I really like Abbott here I by the way the CEO my met when I was at Goldman I don't know gave myself 30 years ago miles white is amazing also in the health care sector here's one that has not worked so far to my satisfaction where we could have traded it it's 86 of course Danaher well this isn't a pure health care stock some would say it's a bit of industrial they spun off a lot of the most industrial cyclical business it's heavily weighted toward the field of Life Sciences which I really like remember we had all that game and thermo Fisher this company has a best-in-class management team and benefits from recent acquisitions almost all which have have a higher growth rate than the core business essentially as these acquisitions become more and more integrated their growth well accelerate the company's overall growth even better the companies actively looking to push into faster growing markets and increase efficiencies by cutting costs while the company's dental unit in question us darn it all management has expressed confidence some recent calls that the end markets are improving and the benefits of the danner of Benesch business system approach are working their way through the system I do not think they will let this dental problem Pattersons got a similar problem I don't believe that they would let this hurt I'm more than two more quarters they can't the stock will be at a hundred if they address the problem correctly at least we're buyers here and we want you to be in before the synergies cost-cutting initiatives and the turn and dental occurs right here at 83 dollars next up when we bought some yesterday TJX we added it because I following the big sell-off from consumer discretionary sparked by Amazon somewhat overhyped all the numbers were great for Amazon you know I always endorsed by an Amazon foot the hack I think the TJX right here at $68 in 96 cents works yes Amazon's hurting retail everybody knows the big department stores simply can't compete with the Amazons prices ease of use mobile access but that is exactly why we love tgx what hurts the Macy's and the JC Penney's of the world actually helps TJX the off-price retailer that can purchase premium excess merchandise and a discount and entice shoppers to physically go to stores to find their beloved deals that are below in many cases Amazon's prices remember t-shapes is one of the only stores out there driving positive traffic need more proof of the sex success how about the fact that they are opening up hundreds of locations and a new home concept while it's full price competitors are closing down countless locations TJX is still growing in the number of stores they need them almost nobody else's even so TJX has been negatively impacted by what I call the ETF is a ssin again keverage carefully talks about this of the markets getting lumped in with the baskets of struggling retailers and pulls it down to the silver lining this is a bargain for those willing to give TJX the time to prove the success of their business bottle especially in relation to the broader coupon is one that's opening up right next to my wife is furious says what happened a local store no they know that the neighborhood I live in Brooklyn is booming okay so they want to put one up they just put another one up knocked a couple blocks for me that this is an opportunist and company that people have written off they're just waiting it off yes maybe the multiples a little too high I'll take that risk I'll buy more if it goes lower next we got water familiar for me in Comcast's EMC si we've received a lot of questions about this one given its recent weakness investors are concerned that consumers simply aren't willing to pay up for cable service linked at once did Millennials especially are either cutting the cord including my kids who don't have TV theirs have Netflix we're refusing to sign up in the first place and the trend appears to be accelerating I know that while Comcast is certainly exposed to this dynamic to some degree we feel the market is discounting the incredible revenue diversity of the company don't forget about the film business Universal the theme park business the networks and please remember of the potentially improving regulatory backdrop which matters a lot and of course Wi-Fi either way people aren't consuming less maybe they're simply changing the way they consume it and Comcast is going along with that the man for Khan 10 is actually on the rise to seen by Netflix as popularity between Comcast is fabulous x1 platform multiple broadcast stations theme parks broadband services content creating movie studio and now it's wireless segment we're confident the Comcast from whether the cable storm and come out on top despite rumors that the quarter is going to be weaker we're not thrown off by the pullback to the name that was trading more than 21% higher year-to-date back in June opportunity okay now let's take when we talked about last quarter in last conference call new court and you eight largest steel producer us this is a highly diversified company within the steel industry that has along with every other u.s.
steel producer been hurt by cheap imports from abroad namely in places like China and Korea China produces way more steel than they need causing them to dump its excess supply over here for pennies on the dollar we want to be in you that you in a u.s. steel company because we think President Trump has repeatedly standard that he plans on clamping down on the dumping from overseas we choose new core because we want the best and we live with this value-added game offers the best growth and most diversification for stability again I don't think the pre announcement was anything more than saying listen all the steel companies are suffering this would be a Defense Initiative if they did it in other words the president would use defense defense law say it's a national security issue if he does it and I think he's just holding off right now because he's still hoping that the Chinese will help with North Korea then I think that new court can go up dramatically I think and go up either way alright two more to go let's talk about funny a financial key corp the company recently received a number of upgrades and in our view is set to push higher looking at key is set to benefit from additional Fed rate hikes despite what Yellen said today makes it well which allows the bank to immediately make more money off its deposit which accepts don't forget it I've been adding deposits like man because of an acquisition growing consumer confidence also makes for potentially stronger leading market in the super-regional space we chose key is the financial buyers that had the best quarter last quarter in season and as tangible wasters have seen irrespective of the broader economy thanks to the changing culture and integration of First Niagara none of the other banks didn't really buy anything they're too big they've government a lot of finally we want to mention an Energy name taking light for their hands here right Magellan midstream partners MMP well the company has been hit as oil prices have continued to folder we believe the stock been unfairly grouped into a broader pool of oil names as we've explained in the past and I know this company well they come on man money eighty-five percent of the company's revenue is fee-based or less reliant on oil prices well us overproduction the Permian may lead to a new normal for oil prices and you know I don't think the oil prices are gonna go much past out 50 there 45 48 right now this will harm the EMP companies whose profits has wrecked related the price per mouth it also means there's oil that needs to be transported out of the region this is war volume and morphine come for a finger feet income choosing Prem P so we're sticking with MMP which has a roughly 5% distribution you can raise that paying you the weight as investors pick out the winners from the group's ETF again ETF ization is hurting this mm SP safe payout a safe supported by the company's commitment to a 1.2 x distribution coverage ratio they do not have the usual incentives and some of the other guys much more fair common stockholders and they have space in the Permian pipe to be able to take more oil which is what's needed cost two to three dollars additional if you don't use their pipe it's just a good company so there you have it our list of 10 stocks that we would buy right here right now we believe these offer diversification short term upside and stability over the long term that being said this does not mean we don't like our other holdings but when looking at trading in recent weeks and understanding that most members of the club cannot own every stock in the portfolio we believe the time is ripe for these 10 names if you're just joining the club we're looking for a new name to add to the portfolio these companies are where we would recommend starting your search as you continue to evaluate your decision we'll be out here posting our analysis to help you along the way and just to stop for one second you know we were going to include Facebook but in the time since we prepared for the call Facebook stock has just done and we run eight points we were thinking about including Apache but Apache just bumped very very nice I'm not gonna say buy it we were thinking about Southwest when it was brutal down way but thought that was stupid the down wave made no sense so we just constantly went over this and come up with those 10
댓글 0