저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood는 연준의 과도한 긴축이 경기침체보다 나쁜 결과를 낳을 것이며, 디플레이션 신호가 이미 강하다고 주장한다. 과거 1980년대 볼커 시기와 비교하면 현재 연준의 금리 인상 속도는 약 13배로 훨씬 공격적이며, 국채금리는 볼커 시기 1.6배 상승 대비 현재 7.4배로 급등했다고 지적한다. 연준의 급격한 금리 인상으로 상품가격(CRB 지수 2022년 중반 고점 대비 42% 하락), 주식(나스닥 약 25% 하락) 등 자산시장이 폭락했으며 달러 강세가 세계 경제에 타격을 준다고 본다. 1920년대 상황과 유사하다고 보며, 당시 연준이 금리를 인상했다가 물가가 마이너스로 떨어진 뒤 금리를 인하해 호황(Roaring Twenties)을 맞았던 사례를 든다. 2023년 물가 마이너스 가능성도 배제하지 않는다. 반대로 연준이 긴축을 고수하면 1929년식 대공황 위험이 있다고 경고하며, 스무트-홀리 관세(1930) 사례를 언급한다. 에너지(석유 -1.01%)와 구리(-8.6%) 가격 하락, 재고 과잉(나이키 재고 증가 등), 소비자심리 역대 저점 등을 디플레이션 근거로 든다. 골드만삭스도 2023년 물가압력 감소를 예상했고, Jeffrey Gundlach도 디플레이션 위험을 강조한다고 인용한다. 국채 가격은 유동성 확보 수요로 여전히 강세라고 보며, 현재 금융시장이 카타르시스(폭발적 조정) 국면에 접근 중이라고 진단한다. 연준 내부 토론이 억압되고 있으며 데이터 중심의 논의가 필요하다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
most people are not aware of it or haven't thought very carefully about it because it doesn't seem to matter to us this is getting to be so serious that we are reaching a cathartic moment and I do think it started the star stock picker and founder of 60 billion dollar Arc invest Kathy Woods was the Federal reserve's impending tightening will have disastrous effects on the economy she acknowledged that she'd miscalculated the impact and Persistence of inflation which the United States is already experiencing what's really happening as inflation Rose to 40-year highs and the Federal Reserve engaged in the most aggressive rate hiking Pace in Generations what has been among the most well-known investors who have found themselves on the wrong side of increasing interest rates the cost of borrowing has increased which has had a negative impact on the type of innovative growth firms that wood focuses on and which are frequently unprofitable the recession has already begun by the upcoming situation is worse than that she wants according to wood in comparison to the 1980s when previous Federal Reserve chair Paul volcker increased the FED funds rate from 10 to 20 to combat inflation the prevailing monetary policy in the United States in September was noticeably more restrictive Jeremy Powell and his staff in contrast have raised it 13-fold from 0.25 to 3.25 in order to slay the dragon when this fed began to address the current Spike inflation had been simmering for about 15 months not 15 years it is currently staying at it with a sledgehammer that is 13 times stronger than the one Volker used in the 1980s wood also notes that although treasury yields increased 1.6 times from 10 to 16 under volcker they increased a staggering 7.4 times underpow the risk aversion is pummeling all assets except cash but the FED seems fixated on hiking rates another 100 plus basis points to protect its Legacy the extreme tightening and yields which was inconsistent even with the rising interest rate environment was what would seem to emphasize interest rate increases typically cause Bond markets to go through a rough patch but this recent spike in yields is severely hurting the fixed income sector meanwhile commodity prices as measured by refinitive crb index have dropped 42 since their peak in mid-2008 25 since their lower peak in 2011 and 19 since an even lower Peak earlier this year her remarks came amid a Slaughter in the stock and commodities market around the world which was brought on by the federal reserve's impulsive rate hikes and forecasts in the previous six months the NASDAQ index lost close to 25 of its value the parabolic rise of the dollar has been disastrous for the rest of the globe and should have a negative impact on the competitiveness employment and economic activities of the United States pushing the FED to change course the Federal Reserve is disregarding signs of economic deflation according to Wood its ruthless rate hikes may be driving the economy into a situation akin to the Great Depression the situation resembles the Roaring Twenties of a century ago and deflationary indications are already very strong prior to the Roaring Twenties the world was at War World War one and suffering a pandemic Spanish flu while both had more serious impact on the global economy today's combination is a strong Echo that could result in much lower expected inflation and a boom in Innovation would notes that the telephone electricity and the internal combustion engine were among the many general-purpose technologies that were developed simultaneously in the 1920s if inflation is unwinding as we believe then we could be heading back to the future The Roaring Twenties the last time several General all-purpose Technologies evolved at the same time telephone electricity and the internal combustion engine the setup is remarkably similar 1920 had over 20 inflation due to the supply chain problems brought on by World War One and the Spanish Flu in retaliation the FED swiftly increased the interest rates from 4.6 to 7 in just one year the rate of inflation fell to minus 15 in 1921.
based on this example wood is not excluding the possibility of annual inflation going negative in 2023 as the FED continues to pursue its hawkish monetary policy position which would call a catastrophic error she claims that we shouldn't be shocked if General inflation starts to decline in 2023 from 4.6 to 7 the FED interest rate increase in 1919 and 1920 was less than a doubling this time around inflation was significantly lower so the FED boosted in interest rates 16 fold which is in her opinion a severe error the fed's actions will determine whether or not we get to experience the Roaring Twenties once more if inflation Falls below the fed's two percent Target and economic growth disappoints interest rates are likely to surprise on the low side of expectations next year ushering in this Century's iteration of the Roaring Twenties the FED reduced interest rates from 7 to 4 in the 40-month period after inflation fell to a negative 15 level in June 1921 the switch was tripped for the Roaring Twenties by this wood cautioned that with the FED now fully committed to combating inflation a Fed turn in 2023 might not take place which might result in a situation akin to the Great Depression she observes the scenario will be more like 1929 If the Fed does not change its course when Congress passed Smoot Hawley in 1930 it imposed 50 percent Plus tariffs on more than 20 000 items sending the world economy into the Great Depression the FED had hiked rates in 1929 to Grow Financial speculation as all members of the FED are voting unanimously there hasn't been any debate among fed officials over their present monetary policy agenda indicating that the U.S Central Bank has so far ignored deflationary signs deflationary signs are being ignored by the fed and the chips act may have a greater impact on trade than we realized economists have not given much thought to the prospective effects of the chips act similar to how they did with Smoot Hawley the consumer sentiment survey at the University of Michigan is at a historic low below levels achieved in 2008 to 2009 and 1979-1982 a setup for a liquidity trap like that in the Great Depression when enormous monetary stimulus failed on August 9 2022 the chips and science Act was in acted into law 280 billion dollars will be invested with the intention of enhancing national security innovation and competitiveness in the United States the industry is being targeted include domestic semiconductor production Quantum Computing artificial intelligence clean energy and nanotechnology what is not the only Pro deflation Advocate the CEO of double line Jeffrey gundlach recently said that the danger of deflation is considerably higher now than it has been over the past two years Goldman Sachs also decreased its forecast for inflation over the weekend stating that it anticipates a substantial decline in pricing pressures in the United States in 2023 the bank noted a peak in housing inflation slower wage growth and the resolution of supply chain problems the first preferred gauge of inflation core personal consumption expenditure is predicted to decline to 2.9 percent by December 2023 in the fed's latest projection at the moment the core personal consumption expenditure stands at 5.1 percent would notes the falling price of energy such as the most recent dip in oil prices minus 1.01 and copper minus 8.6 she asserts that as firms attempt to get rid of it blown up stockpiles Enterprises should result in cheaper costs over the coming few months a further indication of the inventory overhang out there that companies are attempting to fix right now according to Wood is the recent decline in the e-commerce focused Adobe Digital price index deflationary indications are coming down the pipeline starting with commodities retailers are drowning in inventory at the consumer level where the pipeline ends Nike is the most recent and controversial Nike primarily sells to other retailers and its stock levels Rose by 44 the consumer was already exhibiting warning symptoms of deterioration its stockpiles in North America increased by 68 eight percent the amount of inventory in transit primarily from Asia increased by 85 percent Nike will need to lower prices and Merchants will too in order to get their products off the shelves coming to bonds this time they are depreciating against equities and the freezing liquidity is one of the causes those who are dealing with margin calls or other financial difficulties also their most liquid asset if they have no other option wood believes that because government bonds are typically the most liquid asset we are still witnessing a surge in Government Bond prices despite all of the deflationary warnings coming down the pipe currently it appears like we are approaching a cathartic moment which will cause certain Financial signals that the FED will need to pay attention to in Wood's opinion The Guilt Trip may not have required your attention but it is the reason that the near Layman catastrophe occurred in the UK therefore you should have the turnaround is almost complete and there is a hope that the FED moves away from the demand for consensus and the united front when in reality there is plenty of room for disagreement among all those fed members and presidents wood believes that this debate is being suppressed data ought to be the driving force behind the discussion but this is impossible because then everyone would not now hold the same opinion
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