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bill ackman a man who has remained relatively quiet in 2021 following a very outspoken and controversial 2020. this is a man who profited billions betting that the pandemic would have a severe impact on stock prices this controversial decision to shorten incoming economic disaster led to his firm achieving a net return of 70.2 percent this kind of performance has raised eyebrows and many are calling bill the next warren buffett this year however we received little insight from bill and his team on what they think of the economy in the stock market going forward following some unprecedented changes but finally after five months of near silence bill ackman has spoken in this video i summarized his 30 minute interview with the wall street journal going over some of his more interesting takes on today's economy starting with the big one inflation and how bad it's really going to get sure so i do agree i think it's going to be inflation i mean you don't say there's going to be there is inflation it's happening this weekend is that a debate between like business people who are experiencing rising prices and addressing it versus economists who are saying oh this is just temporary blips coming out of the pandemic i mean where do you come down on that yeah i think it's not temporary uh first of all it's hard to roll back wages once you roll them up i mean they go from 15 to 12.
you know it's it so i would say we have a new baseline in terms of wages sort of generally uh you look at every commodity price right new hot wheels copper lumber you know make your list look at what's going on in energy even before the colonial uh you know pipeline issue um look at housing prices look at bitcoin right everything is inflating um and that's driven by we have kind of a once in a moment in history uh right you have people emerging from a pandemic with the animal spirits that come from being locked by beings right so that's dramatic you have you have uh all that hit you know the vaccine roll out actually in the us certainly it's been you know fantastic uh so you have a lot of people feeling you know being fully vaccinated going back to their lives and then you have the trump stimulus the biden stimulus infrastructure an extremely accommodative you know federal reserve so there you have bill directly stating that he disagrees with the federal reserve saying that he does not believe the inflation we are seeing is transitory this matches the opinion from what we have seen from other business people and most famously warren buffett while others have outright denied that inflation is even taking place bill is very direct with his statement and goes as far as saying that the price pressures we are seeing in the crypto markets are related to the overall inflation spike the word transitory has sort of become a meme on financial twitter and youtube at this point the problem with temporary price raises is that they're never temporary if you raise wages from 12 to 15 as bill was saying it's almost impossible to bring those wages back down the same goes with prices temporary inflation is a laughable term as pricing hikes are extremely difficult to erase this leads us to interest rates a topic that heavily influences inflation ackman is asked about potential rate hikes and how they will affect the stock market going forward his answer may surprise you take a listen the federal reserve too accommodated do you think i think they're gonna have to raise rates for sure and i think you know they adjusted their policy in my view just at the wrong time you know a preemptive policy toward inflation uh i think is a better approach particularly in a world where we have uh you know massive massive uh stimulus economic stimulus is it too much stimulus i mean is i think with rates where they are it will have there's a very good risk of the economy overheating that's why i think rates go up and really the answer to the question the uh your viewer asked is you want to own businesses that have pricing power and you want to own businesses where the value of the business is not going to change dramatically if rates go up as you can see bill is surprisingly very direct in stating that he believes the federal reserve will need to raise rates to calm the situation and if we take a look back in 2018 the last time the fed tried to do exactly this the situation didn't go very well now jerome powell is stuck between a rock and a hard place raise the rates in the stock market will undoubtedly crash leave things as they are and inflation will run rampant which way to decide to go is hard to predict because this massive decision is in a round with geopolitics lobbying groups politicians and academics if ackman is right and the fed raises rates you can bet those high-flying non-profitable tech stocks are going to crash pretty severely we have already seen the tech sell-off and managers have begun to move money into what youtube likes to call boomer stocks and this is likely anticipation that the fed will have to raise rates even ackman's own company perishing square capital management has aligned themselves for this scenario looking over their holdings they have around nine positions all in companies with real assets and respectable earnings businesses that he believes will do well even during times of high inflation or higher rates one of those nine is howard hughes a land owner and developer of master plan communities the recent surge in housing prices prompted the following question one that you need to listen to if you believe that we're in a housing bubble and you want to own businesses that can uh you know raise prices to make up for their incremental input costs whether that's labor or lumber okay thanks so and you're also exposed to the housing market which as you're saying is that's also seeming on fire i mean what's your outlook there for the house i think uh i think we've gotten to a point where the millennials can afford to buy a home uh we do have very very low interest rates uh and i think people after being stuck in a small apartment you know the notion of actually having your own space and having a lawn uh it's become a lot more appealing and uh i think you're seeing that in in housing you know we own a company called howard hughes corporation that owns these sort of small cities we call master plant uh communities and we've seen enormous companies just announced earnings yesterday you know dramatic dramatic increases in everything from condo sales in hawaii to lot sales and even the new york city real estate market is starting to boom again bill is clear that the housing market is on fire and if you observe his other statements he believes that it's a business that can and will raise prices to keep up with inflation we have seen over the last couple of months as lumber costs have skyrocketed the final price of a new home is going up yet consumers are showing no signs of slowing down buying this is a rather bullish sign that housing will likely continue to increase from the perspective of acme especially in those areas like texas and las vegas warm weather and low taxes attract companies and companies attract talent if you can combine everything bill has stated here about inflation and look at his portfolio you can quickly see that he's setting up for a rate hike one that will likely damage those high-flying tech stocks with no earnings to show for their prices the kathy wood portfolio is in danger according to this line of thinking and the old guard the stable boomer stocks are back in business rate hikes will undoubtedly shake up the entire economy but how long jerome powell has before this summer gets super heated is the question of the year whoever can predict the timing of the next rate hike will make significant returns in the meantime managers like ackman are preparing for the all-weather scenario reducing their risk and maximizing their potential future returns with portfolios filled with real businesses with real assets and real profits thank you guys for watching and as always please make sure you hit that subscribe button if you want to enjoy more content like this
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