저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 장기적으로 주식을 상회할 것이며 2018년 중반 2만 달러 도달을 전망한다. 비트코인 가격 흐름: 피터 틸의 대량 매입 소식으로 급등했으나 메릴린치의 비트코인 익스포저 차단 발표로 변동성이 커졌다. 최근 저점이 낮아지는 흐름이 나타나고 있다. 투자 비중에 대한 논쟁: 진행자 Scott은 비트코인을 투자가 아닌 투기 상품으로 보며 가치의 근거를 설명하라고 반박했다. Jacky는 5~10%는 과하고 1~2%가 적절하다고 봤다. Tom Lee의 논리: 비트코인은 아직 초기 단계이며 현재 변동성은 가격 발견 과정이다. 아마존을 1990년대 적자 시절 비판했던 것과 유사하다고 주장했다. 밀레니얼 세대가 금의 대체재로 비트코인을 사용하면 금 시장의 5%(약 5만 달러 규모) 정도를 차지할 수 있으며, 2018년 중반까지 그 과정의 일부에 도달할 것으로 봤다. 주식 대비 전망: 주식을 주요 위험자산으로 두되, 위험 조정 수익률 기준으로는 비트코인이 S&P500을 쉽게 앞설 것이라고 주장했다. 2018년 상반기 30% 상승 가능성을 언급하고 하반기 상승폭은 더 클 것이라고 봤다. 블록체인과 가치: Tom Lee는 비트코인 보유가 네트워크의 지분 소유와 유사하다고 설명했다. Scott은 비트코인의 본질적 가치가 0에 가깝고 금과 비교해야 한다고 반박했다. 선물 트레이드: Jeff는 CBOE 비트코인 선물 15,250달러 부근 매도를 제시했다. 목표가는 13,750달러, 손절은 16,000달러 부근이며 리스크 750달러 대비 기대 수익 1,500달러로 계산했다. 하락 리스크로는 해킹이나 국가의 규제를 언급했다. 출연자 전망 요약: Tom Lee는 2018년 중반 2만 달러, 장기 강세를 전망했다. Jeff는 단기 하락(1만 3,750달러)을 전망했다. Scott은 비트코인 가치에 회의적이었다.
다듬은 글
got let's get into this with you I took my eyes off a Bitcoin yesterday just for the day and somebody recaps the price action that we saw at first I thought the volatility was going away in this trade apparently not correct Scott I think you're absolutely right and I think the thing that really got the volatility going recently was this news about Peter Thiel you know we when when that news broke that he had accumulated a ton of cryptocurrency the moment that that news broke all of these products were getting killed all of them were getting killed and they really rallied robustly on that news why well he's considered to be a great investor founded PayPal stamp of approval from somebody in the mainstream I think that's really what was what we saw it Scotty as soon as that came out what happened the next day Marilyn's came out with a note saying that they are banning all bitcoin exposure on their platform so it is a little bit of tug-of-war here but I think the momentum for Kryptos is still intact I know Scott sees things differently right now but trying to trade this volatility has been challenging right I tried shorten it last week they took me out my stop and then we went lower so we are seeing these lower highs right now but there's volatility opportunity but I think the chart wants to back and feel a little bit lower let's take a step back here because I get this question from investors all the time that wanna be in the Bitcoin trade they're a little scared to do it if you were talking to somebody who is looking to diversify a little and maybe take some risk with Bitcoin five to ten percent of their portfolio and hold it a little longer terms Scott is that something that you would suggest just so they have a little piece of it no no I wouldn't I it's not an investment it's it's no more an investment than when I go out to the racetrack and and put $100 on number three to win if you want to trade it because you think Bitcoin has value then you'll have to explain to me where the value comes from it doesn't mean it can't go to a hundred thousand dollars a Bitcoin it doesn't mean that but what it means is if they trading and speculative instrument it's not an inbound push back Jacky I don't think the number is five to ten percent I think that's too high as we're in the first or second inning but I think that one to two percent allows you to get into the game to understand where the top crypto is going out there Bitcoin being one of them all right well we have Tom Lee back and he says that as a matter of fact that he thinks Bitcoin could hit twenty thousand by mid 2018 so Tom explain your thesis here on why this cryptocurrency may see some volatility but ultimately it's going higher well I mean I I still think it's pretty early days for investors to really appreciate how much development and actual use cases are being built around Bitcoin and blockchain so I think the volatility we're seeing is really just a price discovery process I think those who really sort of dismiss it as hey look there's no tangible value for Bitcoin are really losing some perspective it's not that different than in the 1990s someone saying Amazon is worth noting because they actually don't make money and as you know if you look back that was really the bear case for Amazon throughout most of the 90s and 2000 so we still think Bitcoin is easily on a long-term basis the easiest way to look at it is as a replacement or store value and so it's gonna is the Millennials discover and generate income they're gonna use as a replacement for gold so if it gets 5% of the gold market that's roughly $50,000 and we think that by mid 2018 we're gonna sort of be part of way there and that's why we get 20,000 all right you have a stock market that's on fire right now Tom would you be buying Bitcoin over stocks at this point I think you you want to be make stocks your primary risky asset for most investors but I think on a even on a risk-adjusted basis I think Bitcoin is going to easily outperform the SMP Tom how much higher by the end of the year I think again Bitcoin price moves and bitcoins by the way is not even capturing what's really happening in in altcoins in the blockchain but I think Bitcoin if it can actually rise close to 30% in just the first half of this year I think the second half of 2018 will see a move bigger than 30% so I you know I think Bitcoin is still something you want to own through the mill year in through your end all right Jeff jump in I love your work and even absolutely spot-on time so kudos you for calling this I have a non-believer aka hater next to me what would you say to him and the rest of the community I have not embraced cryptocurrency specifically Bitcoin yet well again I think that the only way for someone to really start to think about the use case and the dynamics of Bitcoin and blockchain is is for investors to get involved so I think whether it means and you know engaging in some of the communities or even buying it outright I think it would really change one's mine but again this is a millennial development right this is something that's happened within the last ten years and these are the really big opportunities when generational opportunities take place remember it was the internet and the 90s it was mobile telephones before that and it was PCs / mainframes I think that these types of sort of leaps and innovations are the ones that are important to recognize and take advantage of all right let's go to the hater scott with a question well tell me I have a question what is the fundamental value of Bitcoin and that let's draw the difference the distinction between Bitcoin and blockchain because I think that that the analogy between Bitcoin and Amazon is completely wrong Amazon was building a business that is now that now has billions of customers and hundreds of billions of dollars worth of revenue and so owners of Amazon get all that cash flow now I think that the much better analogy would be to gold but what so what is the the fundamental intrinsic value of either Bitcoin or gold other than a store of value sure well there's an evolution of like what the definition of capital structure is when you look at blockchain because Bitcoin is supported by the blockchain which is a decentralized ledger but it's actually incented and operated by the actual tokens so that means if you own all 21 million that's the few maximum supply Bitcoin you own the blockchain so on in other words owning Bitcoin is a fractional ownership of this ledger so it's actually very much like an equity the reason we don't see that today is that we took we tend to think of applications and then people who've invested in created it that's why people look at web and then you know the applications on top of it block chains different in the sense that it's commits essentially converging users and owners because it's using the token itself as a form of payment but it's also part of the blockchain all right Tom great to see you let's look well let's be really clear timing look because Bitcoin does not have a monopoly on blockchain anybody can use blockchain technology for anything they want to isn't that correct yeah that's right but remember blockchain is a pretty generic word I mean remember the the real key in bit in in Bitcoin is it's the proof of work in it there's a hash function but the proof of work means that the more nodes that are actually doing the mining the more secure the network is because it's essentially a proof of network network Bitcoin owns is the predominant blockchain out there you know it's you can either measure it by market share or by the number of notes it's it's basically most of the blockchain Tom great to see you thank you thanks for your thoughts on Bitcoin Jeff let's talk about Bitcoin futures buyer-seller what are you gonna do despite the fact that I'm long term bullish and I tend to lean into Tom's camp versus the camp to the right of me here I do want to be a seller in the futures now a trade know about $250 away I think we're in price discovery mode as we see more and more pros come into the market so um be a seller at fifteen thousand to fifty and remember this is on the CBOE contract the little ones that the one coin not the CME contract which is a five coin contract I'm looking for a drop down fifteen hundred dollars to test a new law not quite the old low but thirteen thousand seven fifty is my target being mindful my stop is just a thousand a seminar fifty dollars higher and sixteen thousand dollars remember I think it's topped out on trying this last week because the volatility Scott what do you think I like the trade I think it's gonna be really tough because it is so volatile very easy to get stopped out I'd stop yeah it's very easy to get step but here's the thing you know you can do you can lose a ton of money if you had a really wide stop and we don't want to do that I think that the distinction between Bitcoin and blockchain is paramount here and to say that that because a blockchain bitcoin is going to do well is a lot like saying because of the Internet pets.com is going to do well we saw it that we're done the global conversation are now is all intact from a mom to the upside there's a finite number of Bitcoin so if this is the only future to play off right now there's no fundamental value zero fundamental value in what a different show but let me let me just one thing there's a lot of ETFs there's a lot of products coming out they have to own this future that is the heavy hand underneath the bed of this market I don't think the risk the risk downside to the downside comes from some sort of event for example a hack or another country outlawing it that's another reason that's another reason I'd be I'd be shorted alright let's go ahead and get the risk reward on this trade Jeff is selling the CBOE Bitcoin futures 15,000 250 he's targeting a move down to 13750 risking 750 to make 1,500 in this trade
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