'Fewer Stocks are the Only Way to Make Money' - Bill Ackman | Investment | Concentrated Portfolio

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Ackman은 집중투자(소수 종목) 전략이 장기적으로 높은 수익률을 내는 데 유리하다고 주장하며, 8인 팀으로 소수 종목을 운용하는 구조적 장점을 강조한다. 인덱스 대비 성과는 장기(수년 단위)로 평가해야 하며 단기(90일)는 예측 불가라고 본다. 과거 사례로 2008년 금융위기 때 Wachovia holding company를 4시간 분석해 주당 11~14달러 가치로 판단하고 매수한 일을 소개한다. 이는 과거 회고이며 특정 자산에 대한 향후 가격 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

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01. so tell us a little about your portfolio why so few names so for a bunch of reasons I mean I've always had the view that uh you know why why not own the best 10 or 11 Investments as opposed to ideas 12 through 25 or 12 through 100 which is more typical and uh you know I think there are very few great Investments at any one time so the ability to concentrate is an enormously valuable asset of a strategy uh the problem with it is most uh it leads to bumpier returns and it leads to uh more attention on on mistakes or things that aren't going well you know I don't know a portfolio manager that doesn't have a stock that's down in his Port portfolio right but you don't read articles about uh we're getting an awful lot of attention for a pretty high-profile situation that's uh that's struggling um but I think there's uh you know it depends on what your business model is but if you want to make high rates return over a long period of time it's hard to do that being very Diversified I mean if you look through the forb 400 wealthiest people in the world um most of them made their fortune in one business or a portfolio of two businesses very few made it in a portfolio of 100 so it's it's that and the other benefit allows you to run a much simpler uh investment firm we have an eight-person investment team uh if we had 30 names we couldn't manage that portfolio the way we do with a small team bu a small team you can hire better Talent there's actually an argument that some people are now making that you know buying the index or buying Diversified funds have had much better returns than buying you know those hedge funds that have you know a very specific smaller portfolio approach like yours I haven't seen that article I mean I think we've done very well relative to uh any index alternative certainly so I mean I it depends on how you judge us I think if you judge us on a 90-day basis I have no idea how we're going to do relative to an index but I think this is a strategy that over time should earn a meaningful premium over you know any kind of Benchmark uh or you shouldn't give us your money yeah and um usually this investment philosophy does it take a week a month three months to do the research a year I mean you have 10 names what how long it depends I mean one of the best investments we ever made uh took us four hours to do the work uh it was during the financial crisis which was that uh wacovia Corporation so um I was on my BlackBerry uh eating breakfast uh The Brooklyn Diner uh in front of my building and there was a story went across the uh I was just you know you know Wall Street Journal headline a reuter headline excuse me um went across saying um that City Group uh to acquire the wacovia banking subsidiaries for $2 in City Group stock stock was halted this was kind of an interesting transaction because they were buying the subsidiaries for City Group stock I figured hm this interesting what happens to the holding company so I went back to you know kind of went upstairs to the office and you know cracked open the 10K and and another member of the team Mick McGuire uh he and I worked on it and uh what was interesting is the Thousand page 10k of wacovia Corporation I think 900 Pages were on the banking subsidiary there was fewer than 100 pages on the holding company and by buying the banking subsidiary city was leaving a holding company which had cash um you know in wacovia Securities AG Edwards they had paid 67 billion for it six months before um Evergreen asset management and they were taking a$ 27 billion uh loss on the sale of the subsidiary and uh it it also had a liability called non-cumulative Perpetual preferred stock which if you ever want to have a liability in your life this is the sing single greatest liability to have it's a it's a form of equity where you never have to pay a dividend and when you don't pay them they don't accumulate and the worst case is they got a couple directors on the board and you say hi to them each meeting and uh you have this very I said look this could be the our our Brookshire pathway and uh the end of the day we figured the ass you know in four hours we determined the holding company was worth at least 11 to14 cash a tax refund that you could you could carry back the $27 billion uh loss recover cash taxes that have been paid you have this cash vehicle you don't wacovia Securities which is a you know good wealth management business you don't AG Edwards another interesting asset you these are businesses you know well and uh the stock opened after it was halted at a184 so he said look it's worth you know 11 to 14184 we bought 42% of the volume for the next four days