원문 보기
people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them that's bad number one but worse number two if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist you're not go out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble yeah we began with Peter Lynch Time Magazine has called him America's number one money manager during the 13 years he headed the Fidelity mellan Fund it was a top rank General Equity mutual fund his new book beating the street offers advice on picking stocks and maximizing profits and he's here to talk to us about a lot of things to Welcome to the broadcast you wrote a book called one up on Wall Street and I think that's one of the best selling books ever about Wall Street if I'm not correct you can correct me and so so why then did you write another book okay okay I think the reason I wrote it it was the fir I try to explain to people their great advantages their edges they have and that they should get involved in stocks right and they should do it on the right basis this was on the first book right yeah and obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets in in stocks has gone down in 1960 people play 40% of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds in 80 that was down to 25% it's now down to 17% and why do you think that is well I think people in the decade of the 80s was the best decade this Century for stocks I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it themselves because their methods were so flawed so I I really feel as though I wanted people to understand I don't want anybody to buy a stock I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock you should do certain things if you're not willing to do these things you should leave your money in the bank your philosophy is is simple and I'm remembering this from the previous book I think we're now talking about the previous book corre your philosophy was if you find something that you identify with I remember that was the story of your wife and her hose your wife kep saying legs and pant your wife said these are the greatest things I've ever seen and when your wife said that you knew that this was a product that was better you used to stay at La quenta Motel service was better whatever was better and the price was good too and you said this is a place that I can determine I Peter Lynch can tell that this is a good product right and if these people making a good product then their earnings are going to go up therefore the stocks going to go up and that's the kind of decision-making process you ought to go through right do I have it you've got it exactly right well I I don't think people understand there's 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company the stock has done very well people worry about too much money supply What's happen to the price of oil whe who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go up yeah but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do and and therefore you got to pay attention they imp on they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve he cannot predict interest rates he'd be the first he can influence him but he can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now right so how am I supposed to predict interest rates how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 1982 we did 20% prime rate 14% unemployment 12% inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things here's a quote from you I own Dunkin Donuts when you own Dunkin Donuts you don't have to worry about Korean imports you don't have to worry about M2 or M3 these are money supply figures AR they and and what's happening to the money supply this is the way you make money if you don't understand what the company does you should not be in it if you could predict the stock market you could predict the economy you could predict interest rates if you go buy the wrong stocks you're going to lose half your money in anyway right I'm saying people have natural advantages let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry right you supply paper products you supply kitchen equipment you help build restaurants you saw McDonald's you saw Chi-Chi you saw chilies you saw Cracker Barrel you saw Dunkin Donuts Kentucky Fried Chicken Taco Bell these stories these were 40 40 fold you made 40 or 50 times your money you don't need to make that kind of money many times your life right no that's all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry the paper why don't they just stay with an industry you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks you need a lifetime instead people they're in the restaurant industry they're buying biotechnology stocks the people in the chemical indust the people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them so that's that's bad number one but worse number two if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist you're not go out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble so therefore they go forward and they they bet on one stock for a week and a half and it goes up and they they make $2 on it then they sell it and they buy something else when three years is over all they've done is generate a lot of commissions they probably lost money that's a mistake so your advice is what if you don't understand a company if you can't explain it to a 10-year-old in 2 minutes or less yes don't own it because when it goes down let's say the stock goes down to point you won't understand what's going on what do you do do you buy more do you do you do you flip a coin chances are your broker doesn't either you they he he or she certainly doesn't know about it I mean who knows what Advanced what all these things are with auto back planes and mega flops who knows what all these so buy what you know Buy in your industry buy what you know Buy Local so suppose you you don't have an industry I mean you know you don't really well you buy local companies companies in your own industry 10 years after Walmart went public 10 years after 10 years after it went public it's a 25y old company now you could have bought bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it 50 times this if you bought it 10 years after after it was public already it already gone up fivefold so you could have made 250 fold but I'm saying let's say you were in a town they came into it they said boy these prices are great they're doing terrific I like the bargains you checked it out you spent a little bit of work on it I mean people are very careful they when they buy a dishwasher they do some research they'll put $10,000 in some stock they hear on a bus so if you did a little bit of research you'd say Walmart's only 10% of the country they're not even saturated there why can't they go to the rest of the country so is this this is more of the same is what it is it's more of the same plus I show examples it's it's a a touch more detailed this actually shows me in action I picked 21 stocks early in 1992 some work some don't I follow those companies some of the companies the fundamentals deteriorate some they improve I watch those companies go through the year I also explain the retailing industry I try to make it very simp and I talk about a wonderful example is a seventh grade class yeah the teacher of that read my book and my first book that you were talking about you you and I did a show on that in Washington you remember that show this is a long time ago she read the book and I said if you made it through fifth grade math you can do it in the stock market she says okay she started teaching it in seventh grade seventh grade class these kids had to study companies they had to look at the balance sheets to see if they were solving and they picked stocks these stocks were up 69% over 2 years when the market was up only 20 they picked stocks like limited they picked the Gap they picked wal they understood these they also picked IBM I lost money on that too I mean everybody makes mistakes did yeah but I'm saying this is this was this was a school St agon School in Arlon Mass but in addition in the decade of the ' 80s there was 8,000 investment clubs these are amateur sort of right average people just investing these investment clubs 62% of them of these clubs beat the market in the decade of the 80s only 25% of professionals beat the market let me go back to one other subject you after you're coming back to Fidelity aren't you aren you going to do well when I when I finished this book I've been working about one or two days a week the last year and a half on this book now I'm done with the book I'm going to go back to maybe one day a week working with younger analysts just listening to them talking to them I'm not telling them to buy zero to sell lifestyle not totally I'm not going to run another fund 13 years was plenty of running a fund I'm just going to work with younger analysts let them ask questions I'll ask them questions it's going to be a lot of fun now do you still follow do you manage any money for anybody other than yourself no no manage I manage money with other people for some right but no I don't manage anybody's accounts you're not doing some mutual funds P fund turkey all cold turkey cold turkey now are you happy you did this I obvious delighted it's great and you like your new life oh it's fabulous four or five years ago you just said and I've managing all this money I'm going to do I'm going to quit I'm yep that's right and what and you went to do what well actually I wanted to spend more time with my wife and my children right and it it was an interesting situation because I love my job I adored my job and I and I liked outside activ and when I when I was young you know I didn't wasn't involved in charity work until I was 30 you know what Kies younger children you just read them a book and good night Moon and they fall asleep and it's all over when they get older there's there's more time involved so I enjoyed the family I was leaving for work at 6:00 in the morning I was getting home at 7:00 at night 6 days a week this was in Boston yeah traveling 14 days a month it was just too much so I said you know I I said that's it I can't take it and fortunately I had made enough money to say I could give up the jobs I didn't have to give up the family or the outside activities and so what happened then so you did what with your life well I cut back from about a 80 890 hour week to a 40 or 50 hour week and I in the morning I make breakfasts and lunches for the kids and I do the spelling words and the Spanish words and Carolyn does the math and the science and I uh see Carolyn in the morning and off I go to a place you have to go some my opinion you have to go somewhere to do something if you stay at home you might not be answering the telephone or watching cartoons so I asleep taking a nap so she does the hard work and I go I go f gave me an office I have a secretary and I spend majority of the time working on charity things like inner city schools Inner City libraries inner city housing you helping people manage their money or no not at all not that I'm some of the chares I'm on the investment Committee of of some of the Museum of Fine Arts you I'm involved in M Hospital Boston College but you either way but all the extra things I added to were real Hands-On actually being involved in charitable activities
댓글 0