저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
Steve Hanke 인용: QT 종료 및 은행 규제 완화(SLR 폐지)로 통화량 확대 → 자산가격 전반 상승, 금 $6,000 전망. 푸틴 평화협상 진정성 부정, 독일 전쟁 대비 언급. 노동시장 약화로 경기 연착륙/침체 50:50. 엔비디아 GPU 감가상각 논쟁(Michael Burry)은 현재 틀렸고 미래에 맞을 수 있다고 평가. 자체 상품(Meet Kevin, Reinvest AI, Househack) 홍보 비중 높음.
다듬은 글
gold going to $6,000. Vladimir Putin saying there really is no deal with Ukraine. We'll talk about that. Uh and the potential for stocks and real estate to take off uh following this individual Steve Hank going through his opinion on the money supply expanding and what that could mean for a massive bull run.
Uh we've also got updates on the DC shooting suspect and a lot of other things to talk about. Happy Thanksgiving. Black Friday sale is live at mekevin.com and reinvest.co. Co. Let's get started. So, first thing, let's talk about the DC shooting suspect. This is him. Apparently, he drove from Washington to Washington DC.
So, Washington state to Washington DC. He's got a wife and five kids and apparently used to work for a CIA quote unquote death squad. So apparently the CIA back in Afghanistan would train what were called zero units uh also known as counterterrorism pursuit teams and they were trained to conduct night raids and clandestine missions across Afghanistan during the US war in the country.
Also had a reputation for ruthlessness and drew criticism from human rights groups. The suspect who's from Afghanistan was assigned to the 03 unit according to an Afghan intelligence official uh who has obviously now somehow gotten radicalized not apparently caring about his wife or his three children.
Shooting in the head Sarah Beckrom and Andrew Wolf. Sarah 20 years old. Her father says she has a mortal wound. Both of them are in critical condition. Uh and Andrew Wolf 24 years old. Uh the individual had temporary protective status in 2021 and apparently recently received as received asylum potentially under Trump uh though still from that 2021 Biden protective status uh as after the uh troop withdrawal in Afghanistan.
He was one of the individuals who got temporary protective status and came over here. So unclear if he was radicalized then or now. What happened? We don't know. He was shot four times. uh he shot the uh uh National Guard's folks with a 357 Smith and Wesson. And so we'll see what happens here. Obviously terrible uh and really sad.
I mean just terrible right here the day before Thanksgiving regarding Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin is not a surprise downplaying the Ukraine peace plan as potentially Jared Kushner but certainly Witkoff heads to Moscow to discuss it. I'm just going to give you the fact here first. So Putin is basically saying that we don't have a plan.
This is an outline for discussion. So this 28point peace plan or treaty is not formal. We're nowhere near nothing in terms of getting this done. This is just an outline of a plan. It's a concept of a plan, so to speak. Uh and if you might remember, this is the current map. In red, you have uh Russian control territory.
in dark red. Uh you have the uh front lines, if you will. The current quote unquote idea or concept of a plan would freeze Kzon uh and uh this region here along the battle lines whereas all of the neesque even though all of the neesque isn't actually controlled by Russia yet would go to Russia. Uh although uh Ukraine would supposedly continue to have access to the the Nepo River.
uh pretty vital uh supply chain route here and economic route which remember 90% of eastern or 90% of natural gas and oil production or critical energy production in Ukraine 90% of it occurs in the eastern side of Ukraine which is exactly the side that Russia is trying to get control over. So, we'll see.
My that's sort of like that's the fact side. My opinion quickly. My opinion is that Vladimir Putin does not want to end this war. I think that Putin is playing Trump to buy time. I think Putin is deathly afraid of tomahawk missiles getting, you know, sent to Kiev to Ukraine and that those end up becoming an opportunity for really tilting the balance of the war.
And I do not think that Putin wants this at all. And so he'll do whatever he can by either continuing to manipulate Donald Trump into saying Donald Trump is brilliant and this war wouldn't have happened if it weren't for, you know, uh, Trump uh, losing the 2020 election. Whatever. I think Putin will do whatever he needs to do to buy time and that there's no intention to actually end this war.
Meanwhile, there's also talk that uh Germany is building out their battle plans in the event that we break into an all-out war uh with Russia by 2029. German officials said they expect Russia will be ready and willing to attack NATO in 2029. A string of spying incidents and sabotage attacks suggest it could be preparing Russia could be preparing to pounce against NATO countries sooner.
Uh Rin Mattel, by the way, the German defense company, their stock has almost tripled since February. And apparently Germany uh has a 1200page war plan for making sure that Germany is prepared for being the sort of infrastructure and staging ground conduit for war against Russia. With the German autobond designed to turn into landing strips, guardrails can easily be unccllicked.
Mobile air traffic control towers can be set up. Some say that apparently the US highways are also designed to do this to carry troops and supplies. Uh, what a throwback to the truth and reconciliation. Who remembers Halo? Truth and reconciliation. The enemy has captured Captain Keys and they're holding them aboard one of their cruisers.
Anyway, sorry. Uh, but anyway, uh, very interesting. Apparently, this is the true in US highways as well with US highways having bridge overpasses at 13.5 ft so that way ICBMs can be transported across the highways. Very interesting. But apparently Germany also has hidden fuel tanks under parking areas off of highways.
And Germany is being seen as a staging ground. Those notes, by the way, in the Meet Kevin app. Keep in mind the pricing for that Meet Kevin membership uh is live for Black Friday. So you get all nine courses, including the brand new Reinvest course, which will be releasing on December 1st. , you get that Black Friday sale over at meetke.com.
But for now, let's go take a listen to Steve Hank, who says that we could see a massive explosion in asset prices and gold as quantitative tightening ends in December. Keep in mind, he is of the impression that the expansion of the money supply is what's going to drive this. If you look at the expansion of M2, you can see we've gone from 2022 and three from this sort of negative expansion in the money supply to a positive pace that's roughly on par with what we've seen between 2010 and 201 uh 2020.
So that sort of decade of stock market gains. He's seeing that could be a tailwind for the economy here. Uh and he'll talk recession in just a moment. Let's listen in. often but they have an enormous impact on the growth rate and the money supply and the capacity of commercial banks to actually extend credit and once they extend credit of course that increases the rate of growth in the money supply.
So what what what has happened is that there's something called the um special liquidity ratio supplemental excuse me supplemental liquidity ratio and and that that was imposed on banks after the great financial crisis in 2008 and they're going to remove that now by removing that and deregulating shall we say that will have an enormous impact on the capacity of commercial banks to to make loans.
It'll give them a lot. Okay, here it is. So, basically saying banking regulation loosening is going to give big banks a big opportunity to pump money. And what's that going to do? A lot more potential firepower. Uh the estimates are around $2.6 trillion in capacity. So, so that's a big change that that no one pays much attention to, but it's big and that along with quantitative tightening and this continued pressure from the White House to loosen up, lower the Fed funds rate, that that that's a little bit of a yellow light flashing in my eyes when I look at what's going on because what will happen, I think, maybe is that we'll get an acceleration in the growth rate in the money supply and of course we'll have inflation won't be contained.
Mhm. Uh and and uh by the way, the the bubble in the stock market will continue to expand because if you if you have acceleration and and bullish the money supply, just like we had the last time in 2020 and 2021, Julia, what happened? The first thing that happens with a lag is that asset prices go up, real estate goes up, land prices go up, the stock market goes up, all all assets inflate.
Mhm. So all assets inflate because we're potentially getting looser regulation of the banks and more lending capacity. Now, there's a little problem with that because the SEC is now suing, well, probing at least potentially going to sue uh Jeff over First Brands. Now, that's a problem because the banks get nervous that when private credit goes poopsy dupsies, they're going to be, you know, on the hook if they lend to these companies.
So, what do they do? They lend less. And so, you have this con constriction in private credit, but then you have the monetary, you know, money supply expanding. So, a little bit of a risk here that liquidity risk get worse on private credit but potentially better on lower bank regulation. Consider that right now the SEC is investigating Jeffre because apparently Jeff may not have given enough disclosure on the first brand's lending issues be and that there were potentially conflicts of interest because of a side letter and financing arrangements for First Brands.
Now, even if you don't care much about that, think about it basically like this. Imagine First Brands is saying, "Hey, you know, we're going to take on debt at a 5% cap over Sofur." So, let's call it 9%. Okay? But then First Brand has a side deal with Jeff and they're like, "Hey, but we'll sell you this these these receivables at a 10 or 20% discount.
So, the effective yield is like 9.9 or 10.8%." What basically that discount means through the side arrangement is First Brands is destroying their gross profit margins. you know, if they have 20% gross profit margins and they're selling their income at a 20% discount, they have no gross margin left.
They they basically screw investors. And the SEC is alleging, hey, you didn't disclose this kind of crap. Now, not only is First Brands in trouble because they're going bankrupt. I mean, they they're in bankruptcy, but Jeff could be in trouble for these undisclosed fees. And that's a big red flag because people are like, uh-oh.
You know, that's exactly how you could end up getting a constriction in bank lending because now the SEC is coming after these people for shy loan deals as the SEC should. Kind of wild. So, that could be a little flip story to what Steve is saying here, but I agree with him on the expansion of the money supply and real estate expanding as rates come down.
Mostly because as rates come down, what do we expect? more people to unlock the leverage available in their homes, more home mobility, more potential sales, more potential buyers. Be really interesting. Which is kind of the perfect segue into if you haven't yet seen the AI that we're releasing, go check it out.
It drops next month. It's on pre-sale now. So, you can lock in y going to reinvest.co or househack.com. It's my real estate startup. So, if you're an investor in Houseack or you want to be, you could also invest. just read the offering circular and disclosures with disclosures with it. But you go to houseack.com reinvest.co same company.
Here's what you get. You get the app. You get lifetime access. You get all the development phases of release that are coming. And you can check that out over at houseack.com. You can also invest in the business if you want that separate which is kind of cool. We got that black Friday pricing up. Anyway, so that's on Jeffre.
Now let's go back to Steve uh and see what else uh he's got for us because he's got a few things especially on gold potentially rocketing which is interesting. Uh, of course he first though touches on the labor market. So let's just see his notes on the labor market right here. Smoothly the in the US the the labor markets getting a little weaker.
And and by the way that also is another tip off as to what the Fed will do because right rates down because labor market weakening. The Fed historically has always kept his eye more on the labor market than anything else. And and now, by the way, they don't keep their eye on the money supply at all.
They they poo pooed the quantity theory of money and the whole idea that there's a connection between changes in the money supply and changes in asset prices, changes in economic activity, changes in inflation. The the chairman Powell is has rejected all of that in in right in favor basically of cutting rates because the labor market is weakening.
Now, let's look at the gold to 6,000 scenario. This is part of his inflation scenario. Jacob here in the chat is asking, "Can you bundle uh both of them?" The easiest way to do that, honestly, buy the Meet Kevin membership. Once you're in, you should get the upsell offer with the course member coupon for the Reinvest AI.
So, like that's probably the easiest way to bundle it. Just buy the Mev membership, get in, get the course member coupon, uh, and then get the Reinvest AI. If you are a course member already, go look at our last daily wealth uh sorry, not daily wealth, look at our last uh alpha report and you'll see the course member coupon code is in there.
So if you join the me Kevin a uh you know alpha report, go to the last alpha report. The course member coupon is in there in like the first three lines and you'll get the course member discount. All right, let's look at the gold part. So the gold part was 27 minutes in about 50ish. Gold going to 6,000.
Fundamentally, I think we we are in a secular bull market for gold. And I I've indicated I think the top is probably around $6,000 an ounce for gold. Now, he thinks that because of the money supply expanding and this this, you know, recessionary fear that the Fed is fighting. Now, he does give us his his, you know, opinion on whether or not we're going to go into a recession.
Uh he does that right here. might make it make it through without much of a slowdown. If if this acceleration in the money supply that we talked about earlier, if that actually occurs, basically if we keep seeing the money supply accelerate, we could soft land. We could get through this soft patch in labor.
And he gives us odds on it. Mhm. So, I'm kind of I'm kind of in in terms of the real economy, I'm kind of on the fence right now because I number one, I I I've missed the slowdown part of the thing and and and but but there's still some things in there that that that make me watch and that that's what's going on in the labor market.
The labor basically 50/50 shot here. He's kind of like me, you know? I'm like 5050. I'm like teeter tottering. I'm like, I don't know, man. This labor market weekends, we could smash into recession or we could soft land. And he's arguing that the money supply could be exactly why we end up rocketing off.
Uh now, in addition to this, if you haven't seen it yet, there's a video circulating of Sam Olman's boyfriend getting robbed by of of 1 million. So apparently uh there's this is the footage of uh the robber coming up to the house posing as a delivery driver. Look at this delivery driver hooded right here.
Poses as a delivery driver. Rings the bell. You'd actually see in just a moment. Where is it? Him pull out his gun right here. Was it? No, that's a phone. Where's the gunshot? can't see it. In in one of the shots, you end up seeing a gun, but here he's talking to uh Sam Alman's former boyfriend, and he ends up saying, "Oh, I don't have a pen.
You know, I need you to sign. You mind if I borrow a pen? I need you to sign for this. And then he just ends up pushing his way in. Damn. Do you have a pen? Uh, you got to look for Yeah, I got you. And this is where he follows him in. So ask for a pen. Guy turns his back to look for a pen. And that's so it's unclear if that sound is a gunshot or something falling over or whatever.
But at this point, this robber apparently gags and and ties up uh Sam Halman's former boyfriend and steals $11 million uh in crypto. Uh the guy was at his $4.4 $4 million condo on Dorland Street. And uh this happened at about 6:45 p.m. Cops arrived. Oh, cops arrived at 6:45, found the victim suffering from minor injuries, including bruising.
Suspect pulled a gun on the resident, tied him up with duct tape before draining his crypto accounts and stealing the victim's phone and laptop. Gunman stole $11 million worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin. believed to be a hit by an organized uh crime group. Latchy Groom. Uh yeah. Oopsies. There they are together.
Uh Sam Alman and uh Latchy Lackey Lackey Groom, venture capitalist and ex-boyfriend of Sam Alman. Uh okay. Then uh we have uh a little note in the Wall Street Journal today which I thought was very interesting about Charlie Mer. Charlie Munger apparently uh helped not only create this Mungerville in Monaceto, California, but also partnered with a childhood friend to invest in their real estate company called Aftton Properties and after a few years offered to back their company, graduating, UI said, basically backing them with billions of dollars to now this company becoming one of the largest owners in low-rise apartments in California.
So Charlie Munger before his death bankrolling a real estate startup in California. Wow. That's like I mean kind of a a pitch for investing in Southern California real estate. Huh. Charlie Munger sees the value in it. And it makes sense because they just don't build enough out here. So I totally get why I mean Charlie Munger doing it is exactly what I've been saying on the channel for years about uh California real estate.
It's it's actually really incredible. So big fan of that from Charlie Munger. So, you know, I wasn't super happy about some of the latest last inter like the last CNBC interview I thought with Charlie Mer and Becky Quick was a little sad. I sort of lamented about not having more and you know, Becky Quick even replies with like you have billions.
He's like, but I could have had trillions. It's like oh, you know, would the would have could have, should like I I wish that upon no one that you get to like a late stage in life and you end up being in a uh would a could have should have uh you know position. that that makes me a little nervous. Uh but anyway, then uh another thing that's going on is you've got uh Coffeezilla hitting on the we are not Enron piece.
We are not Enron. And as usual, anytime anyone invokes the name, I am summoned like a spirit to judge. Right? So, you know, this was in Nvidia's response letter to uh to the Michael Bur complaints, which Michael Bur also talked about how he was involved in pushing GameStop to uh institute a massive buyback for GME back in like 2019 uh and replace board members who were mismanaging funds.
Uh I actually thought it was incredible that uh Bur is bringing that up. But uh I want to get to the meat of the Voidzilla video which which is right around here before there is revenues to support it for the hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, Microsoft. It just doesn't make sense. And that's his argument.
It's not a question of whether AI is real or not. It's just a question of do you need this before there is demand for it. But now we're well and and that's the the problem is it takes years to build out data centers. So the idea is that you know I mean even the economist was talking about this yesterday and I tweeted about this.
The economist was talking about this like are we actually going to have the revenues to support this sort of spending that these that's going on with capex here and the question is maybe uh maybe not. Uh and uh you know the biggest sort of canary in the coal mine people say is open AAI with $13 billion of revenue and they're making a trillion dollars in spending commitments which is wild right?
And so I tweeted this yesterday. I go, "Ironically, I'm listening to the economist talk about where are these AI revenues going to come from to support artificial intelligence capex." And I mean, like, we paid for quite a few Blackwell chips yesterday with the amount of revenue that we saw yesterday alone from people investing in the the Reinvest AI product.
Uh, which is pretty remarkable. Uh, but anyway, let's uh let's get more to the meat of this here. We're going to dive deep into this criticism of depreciation. Basically, these GPUs are not valuable past a few years or are they valuable for six years? Because Nvidia said in their whole response to Michael Bur and you know the the haters, they said rebutting this claim, some companies have increased useful life estimates to reflect the fact that GPUs remain useful and profitable for longer than originally anticipated.
has to do because this has to do with the A100s that A100s are still useful beyond uh you know at this point they've they're still at 100% utilization as of you know 8 with on an 8-year-old product. So again the bur depreciation argument which you know he tries to explain here the bur depreciation argument is going to be a problem in the future once we start seeing lending get constrained that's when it matters when lending slows down that's when you're going to see capex growth slow down when companies can't pull a meta and take on $30 billion of debt on offbalance sheet debt because blue owl's taking out the debt when that sort of lending and the special purpose vehicles like that end.
When the market starts punishing these companies, which they already are on Blue Owl, when this punishment continues, then the lending stops, when the lending stops for this capex, then the capex spending stops, then all of a sudden demand for the GPUs or TPUs like Google TPUs, which might not be out until 27, or the AMD uh chips or Nvidia chips.
Now, when those slow down, uh, that's all of a sudden where you get a an excess supply of new chips. When you get an excess supply of new chips, then the value of the old chips will collapse. Then depreciation curves will compress and then Michael Bur will be right. But we have a long time to go before we actually start seeing an excess supply of GPUs or even TPUs.
We're not just there yet. So this idea about invoking Enron or we are not Enron, it is wrong today, but in the future it will probably be exactly right, just not yet. We get to look forward to that. Now, one other thing that I want to touch on here on Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving, by the way. Appreciate you all being here.
Uh I was actually texting with some of you because some of you text me, uh which you can do. Do I still have that little button that you can press? I think it's this this text button here. Is this is it going to come up? Yeah, there it is. If you text that number, you can text me. I I'll go on there again after I post this.
But, um, I was texting with some of you on here. Uh, is I, you know, said happy Thanksgiving. And some of you had questions about like the the AI product at reinvest.co or the Meet Kevin membership at me.com Black Friday sale. Uh, that's already live. But anyway, uh I was messaging with some of you and it got me thinking about like some of you who who do drive and work for Amazon.
Uh and it got me thinking about corruption is not bad. Oops. Corruption is only bad if I'm not involved. Yeah, that's that's the the I don't know why all that played there when I went switched back to main. I've got to fix that. But anyway, that's what we used. That's a great meme. Have you seen that meme yet?
And then I'll get to my point here. We were playing this because we were looking at alt 5 and the crypto scam uh and how it's like politically so corrupt. Corruption is not bad. Corruption is only bad if I'm not involved. Corruption is only bad if I'm not part of it. But anyway, we're here from the beginning or started watching last week.
So, we're watching this guy's video basically talking about like how his DSP closed early, which is a delivery service partner. And basically how there are these companies that, you know, rich people like this football guy uh from the Jets. I guess he bought this DSP and uh ran it for a while, but then got overwhelmed with how much work was involved.
So he, you know, basically hired other people to run the business. And so what a surprise when other people run the business for you and you're no longer involved. It ends up going bankrupt. But anyway, that DSP ended up going bankrupt. But it got me thinking about like how the delivery service system works.
And I actually can't help but think it's brilliant for Amazon. It's a I feel like it's kind of a scam, but it's brilliant for Amazon because what Amazon gets to do is they take the last mile delivery portion of Amazon's business, which is the most complicated business, the most expensive part of the business in my opinion, the nastiest part, dealing with last service mile delivery employees.
If Amazon franchises that out by making it a glorified opportunity for people to own a part of the Amazon logistics network, third party logistics, then Amazon doesn't have to deal with the worst part, the high turnover part of the business, the benefits, stock comp, insuranceances, workers comp, health insurance, payroll taxes, all the drama, potentially even liability on lost items.
I don't know about that part, but but anyway, if Amazon Amazon pitches this your opportunity to own a business as hard as you do, you know, and then they put, you know, individuals here and they're like happy. Oh, look, I own a third party logistics business. This could be you. You know, people could be cheering you as you run your your uh uh you know, your your drivers network or whatever.
A day in the life. Each day you'll be assigned with reviewing and assigning routes and checking in with your team. Do a safety meeting. then send everybody out with their equipment in the app. They try to like almost like glorify how like, oh, you could be an owner and you could grow with this, but this is like the nastiest part of the business, dude.
The absolute crap end of the Amazon stack. Amazon basically franchises out the worst part of the business to sell you the idea of running a startup. It is so brilliant, Amazon. And it actually makes you think like, yeah, Amazon stock probably go up on that, but it is the worst part of the business. It's no surprise that these DSP companies go bankrupt or close because it's the worst part of the stack.
I wish being a DSP on no one. It probably has a greater failure rate than restaurants. Restaurants have a massive failure rate. It's crazy. Absolutely crazy. So anyway, thanks for watching on Thanksgiving. Uh, if you want, utilize that Black Friday coupon code over at meetke.com or reinvest.co. If you haven't yet considered investing in house hack or what we do with real estate, make sure to read the offering circular.
You get paid a 5% yield through conversion. You get all the upside on the stock. You can invest with credit card awire. There are no fees for you on investing and there are also no fees on the damn investment. This isn't some Grant Cardone bull crap where you're going to pay a 35% waterfall and a an acquisition fee and a disposition fee and a you know a management asset under management fee.
This is actually investing on the company that I want to keep growing for the next 60 plus years as long as I possibly can. Knock on wood. So I appreciate y'all. Love you all. Check out the Black Friday sale on the Reinvest AI on the Meke Kevin membership at meekke.com. Reinvest.co PO for the AI or investing and uh have a wonderful Thanksgiving out there, folks. We'll see you tomorrow for the half day. All right, folks. Goodby.
댓글 0