저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 현재 극심한 경제 전환기이며 인플레이션 압력 속에서 금 등 헤지 자산과 분산투자가 중요하다고 주장함. 핵심 배경: 정부 재정 부족으로 통화 증발이 반복되고, 미국 내 정치 양극화와 소득 격차로 사회 갈등이 커졌으며, 미국 패권 약화와 중국 부상이 겹친 세계질서 재편기라고 설명. 통화정책 전망: 현재의 긴축은 6~12개월 일시적이며 시장과 경기 약세를 부른 뒤 다시 완화로 전환될 것으로 봄. 연준은 인플레이션을 보상할 만큼 금리를 올리지 않을 것이라 봄. 자산 배분: 인플레에 취약한 부채성 자산 회피, 상관관계가 낮은 자산으로 분산하면 수익을 유지하며 위험을 최대 80%까지 줄일 수 있다고 주장. 금은 전체의 약 15% 정도가 적절하다고 언급. 금: 생산성이 없는 자산이지만 현 환경에서는 유리하며, 무가치해지는 시기도 있다고 단서를 달음. 채무자가 아닌 소유 자산이라는 점에서 가치가 있다고 봄. 비트코인: 가치 규모가 작고 추적 가능성, 규제·폐쇄 위험이 있어 중앙은행 준비자산이 되기 어렵다고 평가. 달러: 향후에도 중요한 통화로 남을 것으로 봄. 여러 통화가 경쟁하는 전환기가 올 수 있음. 국가 전망: 인도는 인적자본과 부채 수준이 양호해 향후 10년 가장 높은 성장률이 예상되나, 관료주의·교육·인프라·내부 갈등은 우려 요인. 리스크: 정치적 몰수 가능성, 지정학적 무력 충돌 가능성 언급. 전반적으로 특정 개별 종목에 대한 구체적 매수·매도 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
extreme economic changes will be the new reality Ray dalio is the founder co-chief investment officer and board member of Bridgewater the world's largest and most successful hedge fund over the past four decades Rey has spent more than 50 years as a global macro investor and has studied the previous 500 years of history in economic Cycles he explains the current cycle the world is experiencing and provides further details on markets and asset classes in this video we'll discuss Ray dalio's assessment of the current economic climate the drastic changes it is brought about and how you as an investor May diversify your portfolio to deal with this new reality hi allow me to welcome you to another video of finances we cover all the latest trends in the financial markets and the economy so make sure to leave a like subscribe if you're new to our Channel and turn on the notification Bell to keep posted with that being said let's start Ray W asserts that the cycle we are currently in is a result of three significant historical factors at play these have occurred and reoccurred numerous times over the last 500 years the first of the three factors is that when it comes to finances governments always need more money than they have access to even when they're run out of it hence they print large amounts of money which in turn lowers the purchasing power of that money due to the increased Supply take the United States for example which has accumulated the most at and printed the most money globally also known as quantitative easing or exporting inflation to the rest of the world notably in the world's primary Reserve currency the dollar the second Factor according to dalio is categorized as a social and political influence the Rivalry between those in the political left and right which is often caused by the wide income differences and opportunity gaps that are present in the United States as a result what we are witnessing right now is very close to a civil war this rivalry is composed of Representatives on both sides of the aisle who would rather fight than compromise for their way of doing things dalio argues that our ideological economic and political differences are reflected daily in the news and may be seen as economic disparities he further stated that we are in a situation where we could have an election in which neither side would accept defeat thirdly with regard to the transformation of the existing World Order where witnessing the relative decline of the United States will simultaneously witnessing the growth of China and other countries India for instance has strengthened its position World orders are established after Wars and the winners in such Wars are the ones who decide how things should go after World War II ended in 1945 the United States was the world's wealthiest Nation it controlled the majority of the world's gold reserves and half of the global economy and had a monopoly in military power because of the United States historical position as a dominant Global superpower the United Nations is located in New York while the international monetary fund and the World Bank are both headquartered in Washington D.C however due to China's rise as a global superpower this relative position has been deteriorating recently according to dalio a significant power rivalry is currently taking place and historically speaking this issue has always been handled by armed war and as of the moment the world is experiencing five distinct types of War trade Wars technological Wars geopolitical influence Wars Capital Wars and Military Wars meanwhile according to dalio the most crucial thing in this economic environment is to avoid owning debt assets that are vulnerable to inflationary pressures second it is advisable to create a diverse and well-balanced portfolio of different types of assets if you properly diversify and examine the correlations between asset classes you will discover that when a particular asset Rises another one Falls for instance during periods of higher inflation commodity prices gold real estate and other asset classes tend to outperform other types of Investments additionally there are areas of stock market where Investments won't have a significant negative impact moreover dalio contends that there are many assets that gain from inflation thus it is of utmost significance to establish a diversified portfolio since it is the way that you can keep a solid return without taking up so many risks in other words you can reduce up to 80 percent of your risk without sacrificing your return if you select Investments with roughly the same expected return but are not correlated then combine them effectively therefore it is crucial to learn how to effectively diversify which includes diversifying across countries Dahlia continued by saying that all currencies today are Fiat currencies countries would via currencies typically print a considerable amount of money since no country wants to see its currency grow too much furthermore dalio argues that the tightening of monetary policy we are currently seeing is only transitory and is expected to last for 6 to 12 months this tightening will result in Market weakness followed by economic weakness which will be followed by yet another wave of easing therefore Dalia believes there will be a correlation in the massive U.S debt and money production due to the impending tightening moreover as a repository of wealth the FED will not raise interest rates to compensate for inflation during this period of tightening this this means that you will still continue to lose money to inflation so it is more advantageous to invest in those inflation hedging Assets in addition according to dalio the world is about to enter a phase where it will be challenging to determine what currency is acceptable there will be competition between Fiat currencies non-vee currencies and other currencies but in dalio's opinion the dollar will continue to be significant on the other hand when asked about the current status of gold as a currency dalio stated that gold is a low returning asset or a dead asset it is a limited Supply non-productive asset as opposed to equities which are constantly being developed and produced however dalio said that although it's sometimes crucial to hold gold there are other times when it will just be a worthless investment even Allied Nations avoid lending money to one another during conflict since everyone accumulates that and if they win the war other countries will have to pay their debt back with a depreciated currency dalio believes that the environment we are in right now is favorable for gold therefore gold should comprise a significant portion of your portfolio but not the majority this means as dalio suggested that 15 of your portfolio may be gold and that the other 85 percent of your portfolio should be comprised of other assets when considering portfolio diversification meanwhile dalio argued that cryptocurrencies are remarkable in the sense that they were programmed and have been functional for around 11 years however there are still issues associated with them to begin the overall value of Bitcoin for example is far lower than the value of Microsoft so if you think about all the different places where people keep their money the overall value of Bitcoin is not a very big number second since crypto transactions can be tracked privacy concerns are an issue when they pose a threat to the alternative current see they may be regulated shut down or deemed illegal which is what usually happens therefore dalio does not believe that currencies will be kept as Central Bank Reserves for a variety of reasons there is a saying that gold is the only asset you can own that isn't somebody else's liability in other words you are the owner and are not dependent on a third party for payment with the way things are right now there is a chance that political seizure or other types of confiscation will happen thus while weighing the pros and cons of various asset types it's important to ask yourself whether the asset you have is something you can take with you trade practically anywhere in the world and is generally accepted additionally dalio asserts that one of the most important indicators is the cost of an intelligent person or a cost of an educated person for example India performs exceptionally well in this respect and its levels of indebtedness which is another crucial indicator are relatively good in contrast to the levels of indebtedness in other nations however the aspect of bureaucracy as well as a general quality of education and infrastructure and internal strife are areas of Greater concern but as per daylio India is likely to have the greatest growth rate of Any Nation over the next 10 years hi it looks like you've reached the end of this video thank you for watching thus far Please Subscribe and give a like if you enjoyed it and comment your thoughts in the comment section below this is finance sense helping you keep up with all the latest trends in the financial markets and the economy see you around
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