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oh my gosh that is a revelation holy crap they're completely clueless completely and absolutely stupidly coess that's what the Federal Reserve is and I hate to say it but you probably agree I'm just going to throw up a few samples here and then we'll have a conversation about this and think about this okay so uh why don't we go into right over here and let's take a look at this while my model scenario contains a near-term Slowdown rather than a contraction it is actually pretty Rosy to compared with what I fear might happen Okay so things are Rosy okay this is this is one example I'll tell you what these are from in just a moment here's another one uh my contacts this is all from the FED mind you my contacts tell me that because the economy continues to be reasonably healthy and people have jobs things are still under control but if house prices and the stock market interesting note fall further and the economy appears to be weakening then they'll be further lending tightening and that uh tightening of lending conditions uh could uh end up creating a self-fulfilling fear of a crash this is basically a way of saying look when people are able to borrow you can kind of sustain spending and GDP and the economy but as soon as people are unable to borrow because maybe housing prices weaken the stock market weakens and then Banks start raining in going ooh we need to be careful then you can self- fulfill the crash okay interesting comment and then we have this comment right here credit quality is actually a better story except for residential real estate it's still pretty good out there basically talk a little bit about this being good that being good other than some pain in residential real estate quote everything is good consu the other Consumer Credit feels like a mild recession but again it's cyclical H now what could I possibly be reading from what could possibly be so Rosy uh or what could possibly be so exciting uh to the Federal Reserve that they're cracks but maybe there's something Brewing well folks these are none other than a reminder on tomorrow at 11:59 p.m.
email us at staff kevin.com if you have any bundle up requests did have a bad last two days of trading but today we got some beautiful profitable tendies I made a little mistake at the end of the day last yesterday and one trade ruined my last two days so that can happen but today we're profitable on today's trades and we're hoping to be profitable Prof as far as we can go forward but I just like to be transparent that I send a lot of ideas a lot of great ideas and people love them we've got hundreds of people uh sometimes upwards of a thousand people in our course member live stream I me this morning we spent like an hour and 20 minutes just talking about trades and ideas and and when to go in when to go out and how to move things so it's really fun uh if you're not part of it yet make sure you join linked down below okay so what is this actually folks these documents are from the Federal Reserve they're transcripts from the Federal Reserve fomc meetings take a look at this this was December 2007 December of 2007 the economy continues to be reasonably healthy okay January of 2008 I just went through all these this morning I was reading them they're so fascinating to read this morning what do we have here uh it's just a Slowdown guys it's it's not a crash it's it's just a near-term Slowdown things will be actually pretty Rosy that's January of 2008 and we got to talk implications in just a moment but look at this September of 2008 this is like Leman Brothers Time Leman Brothers time other than that everything is okay that's the FED after Lan Brothers collapses everything is okay no it's not obviously the FED famously bailed everything out in uh February of 2009 well after Congress tried bailing things out in September October of 2008 but we need to talk implications about this because this is a pretty big deal a lot of you are quite frankly sophisticated investors and we just have to be real about what's going on in markets right now markets are obviously topping we're starting to get signs that potentially we seeing more layoffs again and this is a problem I like using layoffs tracker.com uh take a look at this right here you get actually sort by Tech or non-te and we're only about halfway through April but if we continue this trend April is going to be as high as May of last year and that's weird because it's an indicator that companies are starting to realize crap we might not only be higher for longer we just heard Bostick and Williams this uh morning say look we don't need to rush to cut rates in fact you know we'll cut maybe at the end of the year maybe markets are only pricing in 1.5 rate cuts by the end of the year but these layoffs they're not just a Tesla problem I think they're going to be an economic problem this is Tech by the way I mean I want to tag over here uh we can jump on over to the non-tech uh and let's get rid of all this spam that they try to pop up uh quick note also if you are interested in house act we're doing an inperson Road Show so if you want to meet me in person uh do me a favor click the link down below you're going to see metkevin.com Roadshow uh and it puts you through uh I want you basically to vote on what city you want me to go to uh so between next Monday and probably about May 2nd we're going to do a road show so we'll meet you in person shake your hand talk to you about house sack mini funds explain what investing and how hack is all about do it at where we land so the uh they're called Fix bace operators the fbos they have little uh meeting rooms and stuff there so we'll be able to do Meetup uh with myself and the team and you'll be able to meet the team so it' be pretty cool so check that out if you want to again click the link down below so you can vote on which cities you want that to be in anyway back to layoffs the layoff tracker doesn't work for nonch so I went over here to war notices and we're seeing this uptrend on war notices I want to be really cautious about this and so a lot of people have been asking me Kevin Kevin why why are you so bearish not only do I think that we're going to have a really hard time comparing to 2023 earnings think about that for a moment okay you have to compare to 2023 earnings so if q1 misses at asml and TSM or rather they beat but their forecast isn't as great and the stock drops I mean remember what happened to asml let's just look at it these are this we're just starting earning season what happens at asml here let's go to the average candlesticks boom right back to our retracement line okay if you trust the lines trading is a lot easier I found uh and that's why we like sending alerts with the lines okay that's not a good situation for TSM down 5% that doesn't look very good right now you get a Netflix you could technically have a beat in a bad forecast tanks that could happen across all of AI I think that's exactly why we're starting to see Nvidia start selling down so I'm very nervous about Netflix today because I think even if we beat if we have a bad forecast we go down but remember we have to compare to q123 q223 that's full AI right there Q3 Q4 2023 both of those full AI so it's going to be easy to miss this year I think a lot of companies are unfortunately going to realize that in order for them to actually increase EPS they're going to have to layoff more and they're going to have to go through painful layoffs the expansion of credit won't drive this economy any further I think we're out of money this is why I tweeted I'm sincerely fearful the entire stock market is about to take a giant poop emoji I've been raising cash and I've been complaining since March but I think the real pain is about to hit I pray that I'm wrong and people say like oh Kevin well I mean if if you're in cash why would you pray that you're wrong because recessions are nasty people get laid off they lose their jobs their startups fail they uh go bankrupt they lose their homes their car uh you know their relationships they get divorced people die I'm I'm not trying to be um how do you say it hyperbolic here it's just recession suck and the reality is the 102 has never been wrong about a recession coming now I have I've not been a recession bear I've not been the person saying oh I think a recession's coming I haven't seen that at all but I think partially that may be because we got really propped up by AI but what happens when we start having to compare to those growth expectations for AI and those expectations start coming in softer just like what we saw remember asml they had expectations of a 4.3 billion Euro uh quarter and their forecast was 3.3 that's like a you know over 20% Miss that's really bad and so what that does if the AI anchor or sort of foundation to this Market tanks I don't want to know what that does to everything else now a lot of people say oh well well maybe people will go from the AI stocks and buy other stocks that are beaten down like Tesla I want to have that hope and like sincerely I want to believe that that is going to be true but I think if AI blows this entire Market goes to crap really fast and I'm not actually really concerned about a correction like who cares the correction is is you know something you would expect right like okay cool a I don't know a 20% pullback in the qes okay big deal like you're still going to be up right that's but but but but wait for it okay that's what I want want to talk to you about just wait for it so we're at 423 right now clearly we topped out at about 449 so uh we go back to 406 that's easy okay that's an easy correction uh I think it's much more likely you end up going down to like a 373 pretty quickly honestly 373 is not that big of a deal but let's say we go down to 373 divid by 420 uh 423 that puts me down about 12% I'm not even at a full correction how about if I go to 348 34 8 that gets me to about 20% it's like 18% but that gets me down here that's not unreasonable that would be that sudden dip we had in October revisiting that October low reasonable but what happens if at the same time as all of a sudden you have this concern over oh no the stock market is going down watch this remember this from the beginning of the video I I like I hate saying this but watch I'll read it again if house prices and the stock market Fall further and the economy appears to be weakening then banks will further tighten the lending conditions and terms on Consumer loans to avoid problems down the road and these fears could be self-fulfilling in other words the resulting credit crunch it's their words the resulting credit crunch could push us into recession okay so think about that for a moment right now people still have the capacity to borrow on credit cards credit card spending is going up but what's happening remember the bank video we did just a few days ago this is scary I'm I'm I don't want to be a bear because it's so bad for the entire economy but we know borrowing has gone through the roof buy now pay laters credit card borrowing all that borrowing is going through the roof we know that at rates that are insane it's stupid but what did we start seeing at I kid you not Bank of America Wells Fargo City JP Morgan what did all of the banks say much larger charge offs charge offs 70 to 100% higher than what they had at the beginning of last year and then they're trying to cover that up in their earnings per share by taking lower loss reserves well what happens when you have lower loss reserves and then you have more charge offs at the beginning of 2025 it's going to be a big oopsy doopsy Miss maybe that's why Jamie Diamond just dumped a million shares of JP Morgan between February and April then banks have to start increasing their risk aversion how do you increase risk aversion increasing risk aversion would be taking less risk right you tighten credit stand standards so you lower the number of people available to borrow okay well once people are capped out on their borrowing or their credit limits get capped can't spend as much anymore oh no now you got to repay your debts and you can't keep spending that's how you go into a recession they literally outlined it right here in December of 2007 except of course the economy is reasonably healthy because people still have jobs and things are under control we're not going to see unemployment claims go up until we're already in the recession okay St Louis Fred unemployment claims I want you to see this I I don't think people pay attention to this stuff and and again my my job is to really try to help uh and this is my opinion like I I live for this stuff it gives me excitement to share this I believe my job exists to give people a perspective at at something they're not seeing that's why when when I send trade alerts sometimes people like Kevin you know I don't I don't follow the trades I follow your ideas okay that that's perfect you can do whatever you want but that's why I always send these trade alerts uh and and same thing with house Haack even if you don't want to invest in house hack but you want to come meet us in person and and you want to learn what we're doing great you know we'll have a more in-depth uh thing you know the millionaire Symposium that'll be you know a two and a half day event where we actually like explain and teach but the house Haack thing is the house Haack Road show you can come to that for free this is free but anyway look at initial claims again I I I think people aren't paying attention to this and that makes me nervous I don't want to be nervous you know how much hate I get for for like being a bear it is the most UN appeasing thing like even other bears are like you're not bearish enough like God uh but anyway look at this folks look at unemployment claims when do they really Skyrocket in the middle of the recession towards the end of the recession once the unemployment claims are skyrocketing honestly that's when you buy the dip it's like oh when should you buy the dip in stocks when unemployment claims are actually skyrocketing when unemployment is peaking when the pain is peaking what a surprise you buy the dip and let's look at 2008 the stock market bottomed in March of 2009 holy crap I did not pre-plan that oh my God oh my gosh oh my gosh that is a revelation holy crap now I I I went into this video knowing that if I pull up unemployment claims you would see that the unemployment claims go up during a recession honestly I was not expecting the peak of unemployment claims to match when the stock market bottomed damn I wish I wasn't a bear I'm just really bearish right now this is this is just the beginning I look at this look at the C come on man look at the C come on we're about to lose the 100 day oh man I did make some money today uh I want to I'll reveal my trade to you uh today I had a few trades I didn't make as much as I hoped on my coinbase short but I did make like 800 bucks on my coinbase short I broke even on an arm short and on Tesla I'll show you my Tesla trade so Tesla all of the screenshots of this are in the stocks and site group on Tesla I went short right about herish uh as we confirmed we were coming down uh and then we basically stayed under uh this uh this 325 moving average and I took some beautiful tendies uh but yeah that 252 line was really useful because we couldn't break it in the morning and then when we got rejected again that was enough for me to go short I think I'm I'm up like 11 or 12K or something like that today which is nice but and it just makes up the whole of I screwed up so badly on an arm um uh call Cuz arm was down 10% and then I went for a call I made money went for a call again made money went for a call then the market tanks into the clo and it dropped to like 12.3% really rapidly that hurt but that's trading it happens and I I just want to be transparent again my ideas are to help you trade to learn how to trade to share opinions and perspectives and I send these alerts live not a lot of people actually do that cuz it's hard to put your money where your mouth is but but I do it so anyway thanks for watching check out that House Road Show link down below and we'll see you in the next one good luck every
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