저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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주식 투자의 핵심은 보유 종목을 이해하는 것이며, 회사의 실적과 재무제표가 주가를 뒷받침해야 한다고 강조한다. 대부분의 개인이 이유 없이 주식을 사고, 단지 오를 것이라는 기대로 보유한다고 지적하며 10살에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 없다면 이해하지 못한 것이라고 말한다. 코카콜라는 32년간 주당순이익이 30배 늘어 주가도 약 30배 올랐고, 베들레헴스틸은 이익이 줄어 주가가 30년 전의 절반이라는 대비로 주가는 기업 실적을 따른다고 설명한다. 월마트·맥도날드·마이크로소프트 등은 상장 후 수년~십수년을 기다려도 큰 수익이 가능했다는 예로 장기 보유의 이점을 강조한다. 스미스클라인(타가멧)처럼 일상에서 제품 효과를 직접 관찰할 수 있는 '우위(edge)'를 활용하라고 권하며, 조급하게 사지 말라고 조언한다. 과거 주도주였던 RCA, 폴라로이드 등 많은 기업이 회복하지 못했으므로 '다시 오를 것'이라는 믿음은 근거가 되지 않는다고 경고한다. 주가가 3달러로 떨어졌다고 싸다고 볼 수 없으며, 손실 규모는 주가 수준이 아니라 투자 금액에 달려 있다고 설명한다. 공매도 전문가들은 주가가 많이 떨어진 기업이 0으로 갈 것을 보고 공매도하기도 하지만, 공매도에는 매수자가 필요하다는 점도 언급한다. 영상은 특정 종목에 대한 현재 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가를 제시하지 않으며, 대상 자산 관련 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
the single single most important thing to me and the stock market for anyone is to know what you own I'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they own actually you really press them down they'd say the reason I own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain upstairs you can't explain to a ten year old in two minutes or less why you own a stock you should known it and that's true I think about 80% of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company and they make a very narrow easy to understand product they make a 1 megabit SRAM CMOS bipolar risk floating point data i/o array processor with an optimizing compiler a 16 dual port memory a double diffused metal-oxide-semiconductor monolithic logic chip with a plasma matrix vacuum fluorescent display it has a 16-bit dual memory and as a UNIX operating system for whetstone mega flop all e silicon a minute or a high-bandwidth that's very important 6 gigahertz double metallization communication protocol an asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture for wave in to leave memory a token ring a change backplane and it doesn't 15 nanoseconds in capability now if you want a piece of crap like that you will never make money never zombie will come along with more whetstone so less Whetstone's or big a mega flop or a small Omega flop you won't have the foggiest idea what's happened and people buy this junk all the time I made money and Dunkin Donuts I can understand it I when there was recessions I didn't have to worry about what was happening I could go there and people still there I didn't have to worry about low price Korean imports I'm gonna just stand out people here a tip on a bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions and program training that is garbage they didn't do any reason but a piece of junk they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's what we were being driven to and it's self fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way they were that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up coca-cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy remember coca-cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets is a company behind every stock the company does well the stock as well it's not that complicated another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give an example of a well-known company Walmart went public in October of 1970 1971 public already had a great record in at 15 years performance brake balance sheet you could await 10 years saying you're very conservative Esther you're not sure this Walmart can make it you want to check your you see them operate in small towns you're afraid they only make it in separate states you want to wait till they go to more states you keep waiting you can about Walmart ten years after one public I made 35 times your money you bought it when they went public you would have made five our times money but you can wait 10 years after well McGlinn public and made 30 over 30 times your money you can wait three years after Microsoft went public and made ten times your money if you knew something about software I know nothing less to offer if you know some software you would said these guys have it I don't care who's gonna win Compaq IBM I know he's gonna win Japanese computers I know Microsoft ms-dos is the right thing you could've bought Microsoft again I'm repeating myself stocks are not a lottery ticket there's a company behind every stock and you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call them you don't need to do this it's a the you need an edge to me money to female have incredible edges and they throw them away I'll give you a quick example of SmithKline this is a stock that had tagamet now you didn't have to buy SmithKline when tagged meth was doing critical trials you don't have to buy SmithKline with Tackman was talked about in the New England Journal of Medicine or the British version Lancet you could have bought SmithKline when tagamet first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you were a nurse or druggist you're writing all these prescriptions tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers there's a wonderful pill for the company piece of you to stop taking it the ulcer came back it wasn't a crummy product but they took it for a bokken and went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money I mean all the druggist all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product eventually they always come back this one is uh this one doesn't work either people think RCA just about get back to it so 1929 high in general likely took it over a lot of double nits never came back none of those beauties floppy discs Western Union the list goes on and on people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can I lose I've had people call me up saying I'm thinking of buying the stock at three how much could I lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put if you and if you put $20,000 in stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20,000 at full at 50 into this dog and you put $20,000 into three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything if people say it's three how much I lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the own this may be a reason to research it on the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should buy it and in fact short-sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at Walmart they don't sure Home Depot in Wilshire the great companies Johnson Johnson stocks down from 80 to seven they'd like to shorted at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at 7 this company is gonna go to 0 they just haven't blown taps on this thing yet it's going to 0 and they're selling short 7 they're selling short at 6 at 5 at 4 and 3 at to at 1 and a quarter and you know to sell something short you need a buyer something has to buy the damn thing and you want to who's buying this thing that sees people saying it's 3 how much lower can it go the
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