저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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투자는 컨센서스에 반대로 베팅해 맞아야 수익이 난다고 주장하며, 시장 가격에는 이미 합의가 반영돼 있다고 설명. 좋은 기업이 곧 좋은 투자는 아니라는 점을 강조. 이후 대부분 자기계발 성격(사고의 균형, 명상, 고난 대처)으로, 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
if you want your life to be successful you will not let yourself do certain things because you're just no good at them once you get that picture down then you can find the paths wherever the paths are you're open-minded the Holy Grail of investing it's a three pages long and it explains basically this important thing cuz when that Epiphany happened to me and how I would do it it changed everything and it's so important for the average person who's listening and let me explain why that is because the average person who's listening too many people think that they can go into this very difficult Zero Sum game of betting against the consensus and be right you know what I mean in other words investor says I'm going to go in the markets I'm going to make money betting against the consensus and be right right cuz the consensus is built into the price okay okay that's what's the so it's think of it as like going to a horse race and there's handicaps okay you're not going to pick the best horse and you're not going to pick the best company a terrible company can be a better investment than a uh a terrific company a terrible company could be a better investment just like the terrible horse can be a better in because the odds that are changing like you go into that that becomes the long shot but because the long shot is going to pay off 25 to one right if he comes in you could just as likely bet on the the long shot as the leader and it's going to be equally likely that you're going to make money right otherwise you otherwise the market would be doing the opposite well the market is like that right in other words if everybody believes that something's going to be terrific okay then everybody's betting on it and its price is high so it's not what's best necessarily it's what's best relative to what's in the price what's discounting you know everybody crashes and then you're faced with uh that crash and you either have an epiphany or you don't now you either walk off the field and say hey I don't want to do this anymore and you give up on that going after your audacious goals or you gain really humility you you know how do you feel that you're going to be wrong and so I think then that whole notion is um you know to come back back with the uh finding the smartest people I could find who disagree with me um also I'm in the investment management business that you have to bet against the consensus otherwise you can't make money cuz it's in the price and you have to bet against the consensus and be right or as an entrepreneur I'm an entrepreneur I had to bet against the consensus and be right and so to gain that humility was the the thing so you either get off the field or you learn right the greatest tragedy of mankind or the greatest tragedy of individuals who together make up Mankind in their uh dealing with each other is they have bottled up in their heads wrong opinions that they don't know how to stress test because they think if it's in their heads it's it's right if they have an opinion and it's so easy to get around that if you can think about how do I go beyond that so the reason I'm saying that is I love Partnerships in which there's a back and forth and you knock things around and you get to the right answer where there's open-mindedness and learning at the same time as there's the assert assertiveness as you're trying to figure things out together in all relationships in one way or another you have to find out how you're going to make decisions there are going to be agreements and disagreements and you have to have the art of thoughtful disagreement now people find their domains differently maybe somebody says okay I'll take care of these things and you take care of that I don't know some people you know the traditional household might say okay I'll take care of making the money out and the man goes out and he makes money in the world and then when woman says I'll take care of the kids we're not there anymore but each role I'm trying to say in some way you have to find out how to do the art of thoughtful disagreement it's and it makes sense and then also knowing what's good what you're good at and what you're not good at it's a good thing to know what you're good at and what you're not good at meditation is the biggest gift that I can give anyone and I would say more than anything it is whatever reason for Success I've had uh because it allows one back to the two use I'll clarify what I mean is that in your mind that we think what do you want and the reality is when you look at the neuros science and psychology that there are different parts of your brain that want different things and so in the simplest sense there is the logical part of your brain that you're conscious of it's called the conscious and you think you're being logical and you want to make those decisions and then there's the subliminal below the limic system part of the brain which is the emotional and it's not as conscious to you but it has more of an influence on you than really The Logical one and so they're not align and so when you're experiencing that pain or let's say the ego right there were two main things you got an ego barrier and a blind spot barrier if you can get past your ego barrier and you get past your blind spot barrier you can accomplish anything because you also know that you don't have to do everything to you don't have to figure it out yourself you can take in from other people the different ways to approach things in the best possible way and so the realization that we all are really struggling with ourselves and to think which are which is in control meditation helps to deal with the alignment of those two things because both are valuable in other words intuition imagination the things we really love come from our subliminal uses right our needs whatever they may be they come from here that subliminal they may be valuable they may be scare damaging you don't know the difference and so when they come up and you're looking at those with your logical mind and you can align those things you're probably in good shape if you can do that that alignment between the subliminal and the logical and you can do that with other people so that you can triangulate with other people and say does that make sense or and get alignment that alignment is the path to the Future because you only have to know what the best things to do are you don't have to have them all come up from your head and for God's sakes don't be overly opinionated because just because you have that opinion it doesn't mean it's true so that's where the two 's and the alignment really is so important give me a couple things that I can do to get more out of a minute first of all well if you do make your passion and you work the same thing um then you're it's great right because your passion uh whatever it might be you're a painter or you're an entrepreneur or whatever that is and you find that more enjoyable than going to a ball game let's say then that's becomes a passionate thing that's one thing second to know how to uh work with people who can do things really well to get the most leverage out of people okay third how do you get yourself really what are the right work habits um you know anyway there's a whole bunch of those kinds of things where you you how do I just just you what you say how do I get it done without me doing it who's the best to do it and how do I get oh you all of a sudden you open yourself to up to all different possibilities of how you can do that right no time struggle well or tough love okay I put those words together because that ex exemplifies the fact that people don't think they go together and so if you start to realize struggling well is what you're uh will get you what you want okay rather than avoiding struggle uh that's what I'm trying to convey and so um if you realize that then you will go to the struggle you won't be averse to the struggle and you will think and and then under that in the book I wrote all these different ways of what it means to struggle well okay how you uh have thoughtful disagreement how you listen to maybe you're not good at that or not how you learn how you navigate all the ways through that so that you get stronger because if you don't struggle you won't get stronger okay so struggling well go above it you know okay strug well a big element is to go above your struggle just like you did I you look back and you say Okay um am I struggling well rather than be in it and doing those things so there are a lot of different ways of how to struggle well but if you know okay that's struggling is a good thing okay if you want to be strong it's a good thing if you worry you don't have to worry and if you don't worry you have to worry okay because what I mean is um if you're worrying about what can go wrong you chances are you will create the protections against that thing going wrong and therefore that's good and if you're not worrying about the things that are going to go wrong then they are probably the things you never expect are going to come and hit you okay and so it sounds counterintuitive if if you worry don't have to worry if you don't worry you better worry but what it means is that process of okay go to the thing go to it and enjoy it view these things as puzzles your personality will change you'll enjoy it okay because life is a puzzle it's it's a going through the jungle
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