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한 줄 결론: 캐시 우드(ARK)는 2027년까지 테슬라 매출의 67%가 로보택시·FSD 등 현존하지 않는 사업에서 나올 것으로 전망하며, 영상 진행자는 이 수치가 과장됐다고 보면서도 테슬라의 자율주행 우위는 오래갈 것이라고 본다. ARK 전망: 2027년까지 테슬라 연매출 1조 달러 이상 예상, 이 중 44%가 로보택시 사업에서 발생. 세전·감가상각 전 이익 3,540억 달러 중 64%는 로보택시, 3%는 사람이 운전하는 라이드헤일 네트워크에서 나와 합계 67%가 현존하지 않는 부문에서 발생한다는 주장. 현황 수치: 테슬라 2023년 생산 목표 180만 대(연 50% 성장 목표는 진행자가 비현실적이라고 평가), 전기차 매출 비중 84%, 2023년 매출 전망 약 970억 달러. 2027년 1조 달러 달성을 위해서는 연 80% 성장이 필요하다고 지적. 생산능력 목표: 2030년까지 기가팩토리 12곳, 연 2,000만 대 생산능력 목표(CEO 발언). 현재 6개 공장 운영(캘리포니아·텍사스·네바다·뉴욕·베를린·상하이), 멕시코 레온 계획 단계. 경쟁·가격: 테슬라는 2022년 8월~2023년 8월 사이 전기차 가격을 평균 20% 인하. GM·포드 등은 EV 투자를 연기했고 포드는 전기차 1대당 약 3만 6천 달러 손실로 언급. 테슬라 가격 전쟁이 자사 재무에도 부담이라는 분석. 자율주행: FSD 베타 누적 주행 3억 마일, 테스트 차량 270만 대(경쟁사의 약 10배, ARK 추정). 2024년 페달·핸들 없는 완전 자율 로보택시 출시 계획 언급, 차량 평균 주행 시간 주 12시간 기준 소유자 차량을 호출망에 제공해 수익 공유하는 모델 설명. FSD 구독 매출과 기술 라이선스 가능성도 언급. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 ARK의 수치가 '터무니없다(wild/ridiculous)'고 평가하고, 로보택시·자율주행 소프트웨어가 테슬라에 매우 수익성이 클 것이나 시기와 규모는 예측이 어렵다고 봄. 다른 자동차 브랜드는 자체 개발 전까지 테슬라 자율주행 기능을 차용할 가능성이 크다고 전망. 투자 조건·리스크: 로보택시 출시 지연, 가격 인하 경쟁, 기존 완성차의 대규모 EV 투자 연기가 주요 리스크로 언급됨.
다듬은 글
everyone welcome back Tesla makes money selling electric vehicles that's well known of but 67% of its earning might soon come from this instead so what is this thing that we need to find out about and we've got some information from kathywood that could point us into the right direction electric vehicle sales account for 84% of Tesla's Revenue today Kathy Wood and Arc Investment Management anticipate self-driving Technologies could trans for Tesla's economy by 2027 selling passenger electric vehicles might account for only a small part of Tesla's earning Kathy Woods Arc investment anticipates a significant change to Tesla's business model by 2027 what is this significant change and is it even worth considering technology investor Kathy Wood thinks that Tesla's stock is the biggest artificial intelligence opportunity in the world the company is using AI to develop its industry lead and autonomous self-driving vehicle software Kathy Wood's investment firm Arc Investment Management released a set of financial models that suggest a letric vehicle sales won't be primary source of Tesla's financial success for much longer with the help of AI 67% of the company's earnings will come from something else entirely by 2027 here's what the investors need to know and I can see that the Tesla Ai and Tesla self-driving features will obviously be more useful to use users as time goes on it'll be more valuable to users as time goes on self-driving features are really the future of Mobility autonomous we're leaving the age of information and we're slowly entering the age of autonomy and I'm not necessarily saying that the age of information is suddenly going to disappear certainly not it will stay around for a very long time but it's no secret the age of autonomy is just around the corner if it's not here already Tesla is also developing robots to replace the people who are building the robots as ironic as that sounds it is also the flaw in progress you know we all strive for progress but sometimes progress might end up replacing you and that's just ironic in so many levels so here's what Tesla's business look like today Tesla's on track to produce 1.8 million EVS in 2023 and number that the CEO hopes will grow by 50% year for the foreseeable future the company operat six Giga factories located in California Texas Nevada New York Berlin Shanghai with another in the planning stage in Leon Mexico but Tesla have to expand its footprint if it wants to remain must desire growth over a long period of time 50% per year is just ridiculous I don't think that's even possible that's basically them saying that by next year they'll increase their production by 900,000 Vehicles something like that that crazy it's not just whether or not they can produce these vehicles but what about the buyers remember now the model y are selling a lot better than the model 3s so they'll have to build more model y's less model 3s that shouldn't be a problem if the demand can keep up with it by all means let's do it so we know Tesla wants to expand its footprint the CEO estimates that the company will be operating up to 12 gig of factories around the world by 2030 with a production capacity of 20 million EVS per year by 2030 12 gig of factories with a production capacity of 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 that is an ambitious goal and that's s years away nothing is impossible when it comes to Tesla so reaching that point won't be easy but competition is growing fast from startups and Legacy aut to make US enter in the EV space Tesla has a significant Head Start and it enjoys economy scale its gross profit margin is higher than that of any other caraker in the industry which affords the company price and power to help fend off competition threats in fact Tesla slashed the price of EVS by an average of 20% between August 2022 and August 2023 now car giants like general motor and Ford have already announced plans to postpone billions of dollars in investment into their own EV businesses as they realize they'll have to sustain heavy losses to compete with Tesla in near term right now Ford loses about 36,000 on every Eevee it produce but Tesla price war is a huge drag on its own financials while the company is on track to sell a record number of cars its 2023 revenue is projected to grow by 19% year-over a year the slowest annual Pace in its history the eveve giant Hearn and perier is set to shrink by 22% so Tesla's tackling a new frontier Tesla's been developing its full set driving software for over 10 years is currently the most advanced in the industry Tesla says that customers have driven over 300 million miles using beta version so far and the data is King When developing an AI based technology Arin vest also estimate that Tesla has 2.7 million customers cars on the road testing FSD which is 10 times more than its nearest competitor the CEOs told investors that Tesla plans to launch a fully autonomous Robo taxi with no pedals or steering wheel by 2024 which can seamlessly transport passengers with no human assistance once FSD rolls out to all customers Tesla vehicles will become a robo taxi must says that the average passenger vehicle is only driven for 12 hours per week so customers can lend their Tesla's EVS to companies ride hail in networks when they're not in use that will allow the owners to earn income which would be split with Tesla of course so given the robot taxi hasn't launched so given robot taxi hasn't launched yet it's it's hard to say exactly what the business model will look like however we know that Tesla will earn reoccurring subscription revenue from customers who install FSD software and we also know musk is considering licensing it to other car makers of course he would other car makers will desperately need this technology because they're not developing their own and it's unfortunate but of course sales of robot taxi itself will drive revenue and any customer owned Tesla serving a robot taxi in the company's R Isen network will also be contributing in revenue of course now by 2027 Arin vest believe that Tesla will be generating over 1 trillion in annual revenue AR invest believes that Tesla will be generating over 1 trillion in annual revenue with 44% coming from Robo taxi businesses that will be translated into 354 billion in earnings before tax and depreciation and amortization the abet of which 64% will come from robot taxes and a further 3% from Human driven ride hail in within the Tesla Network as Human Arc is correct that means 67% of Tesla 2027 IET will come from segments that don't even exist today Tesla's revenue is on track to come in at 97 billion in 2023 so it would have to grow by 80% per year between now and 2027 to make Ark and vets one trillion forecast so that is crazy keep in mind musk himself is only aiming for 50% % EV production growth going forward so that is some wild claims from the manager of um kathywood AR and vest so that is some wide that's some wild claims and that's uh some really ambitious Claim by Kathy woods but nevertheless I'm paying attention to the space I know robot taxi and the software self-driving software will be extremely profitable for Tesla but it's really hard to say by how much and by when and I'm I'm less concerned with that to be honest I just know that they have a huge advantage and this Advantage will continue for a long time unfortunately a lot of other car brands their best choice will be to borrow Tesla's self-driving feature until they can create a competitor of their own so that's it for today's video thank you for watching subscribe to see more leave a like leave a comment and I'll see you in the next one
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