This is Why the Market has Already Crashed | (By Ray Dalio)

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결론: 레이 달리오의 거시 경고(부의 격차, 정부 부채, 미·중 갈등)를 근거로 영상은 시장이 이미 붕괴 국면이라고 주장하지만, 구체적 가격 예측은 없다. 달리오가 보는 3대 지표: 첫째, 미국 상위 10%가 전체 부의 약 70%를 보유하는 부의 격차가 정치적 양극화를 키운다고 봄. 둘째, 미국 총부채가 2012년 약 15조 달러에서 현재 약 29조 달러로 증가해 재정 부담이 커짐. 중국 관련: 최근 규제로 중국 주식에서 1조 달러 이상이 증발했다는 추정이 있으며 투자자들이 매도 중. 달리오는 이 매도를 전략이 아닌 공포에 따른 것으로 봄. 공동부유(common prosperity)는 장기적으로 긍정적이라고 평가. 지정학 리스크: 미·중 무역전쟁(2018년 시작)이 체스 게임처럼 진행 중이며 대만 문제는 최악의 시나리오로 제시됨. 영상은 이를 '기름 탱크에 불씨' 비유로 표현. 다만 영상은 전쟁 가능성은 낮고 세계가 100년 전보다 나아졌다고 덧붙임. 달리오의 투자 조언 3가지: (1) 현금은 왕이 아님 — 물가 상승(6% 이상) 때문에 현금 보유는 실질 손실. (2) 리스크 관리 — 최악의 시나리오를 생각하고 포트폴리오 방어. (3) 분산투자 — 불확실성이 커지면 분산이 최선의 방어, 달리오 펀드 Pure Alpha는 수십 년간 손실 년도가 적었다고 언급. 영상은 여러 출처를 교차 검증하라는 권고로 마무리.

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01. this is why the market has already crashed ray dalio just predicted the collapse of america and detailed exactly how the economic system is faltering history always repeats itself and while humans always innovate emotions never change hello and welcome to money invest in this video we'll be talking about why the stock market is already crashed make sure to watch the video until the end to know why we think so join our channel by hitting subscribe and clicking the bell icon to be updated on new uploads without further ado we'll introduce you to a highly influential businessman ray dalio is a bit of a polarizing figure in the investment world he's a multi-billionaire founder and co-chief investment officer of bridgewater associates the largest hedge fund in the world with over 140 billion dollars in assets under management he is polarizing for several reasons from the way he runs his company to his views on the world of global finance he might have correctly called the 2008 financial crisis but he's made a lot of predictions that never panned out too even so he's made a name for himself as a global big picture investor and has studied markets not just for the past 20 years but going back hundreds of years this has given him insight into what our current economy looks like compared to generations past and what might become in this video we'll give you the latest about what this history buff slash investor has to say about what the world looks like now there are three main indicators that dalio is closely watching first of all the wealth and opportunity gap is creating significant division within the united states while household wealth is broadly increasing in the u.s the upper class has grown their wealth disproportionately compared to the lower classes the household wealth of the bottom fifty percent of the united states is lagging by a considerable amount the wealth gap is becoming so significant that a top ten percent of the us now owns seventy percent of the entire u.s wealth a thriving economy is typically great but the wealth gap is indicating a growing tension between the economic classes we can see this with how polarizing politics has become whether you like it or not the political spectrum is becoming increasingly radical u.s economy and one of dalia's biggest concerns close to home is the wealth gap we can hear you chuckling and it makes sense that you left a man worth 17 billion dollars saying in 60 minutes that income inequality should be declared a national emergency in his studies of historical economics he says that when you have such an enormous wealth gap and combine it with an economic downturn there will be conflict this is creating internal disorder a key factor to the downfall of economic power houses the next major concern is the us government's growing debt balance which has been exasperated by the pandemic the total u.s debt has increased from roughly 15 trillion in 2012 to 29 trillion today despite this massive debt problem the government is continuing to spend enormous sums of money the most obvious historical reference to something like this is the french revolution in the late 18th century when the aristocracy and the monarchy were forcibly removed from power income inequality has been a problem for quite some time but the pandemic in 2020 made it obvious that something needs to be done soon one of the tactics that dalio has said would help is to simply use the tax system more effectively while he does say taxing the rich isn't necessarily the answer he also says that the only real answer to helping the income gap is through more productive uses of tax dollars this could be more taxes in one way or another but he says taxing pollution and other negative impacts and products that do the same within society would perhaps allow for more effective taxing not only that but dalio also says using that tax money more productively is critical if we're going to see the income gap narrowed china's economy china has been creating some ways for investors over the last several months some estimates say that through recent regulations they have wiped out over a trillion dollars of wealth from chinese stocks many investors are selling out their positions in chinese markets in anticipation of more turmoil shortly ray dalio on the other hand seems to feel that those who are selling out the chinese positions are doing so out of fear rather than out of strategic thinking it's the same as an investor it's not smart to sell on the break or buy it's a strategic play contrary to some investors opinions dalio has specifically mentioned that the common prosperity that some investors say should be a red flag is in fact a step in the right direction contrary to some investors opinions of course it reinforces his opinions we just talked about wealth and equality in the us in dalia's mind the goal of common prosperity might seem harsh and worrisome to investors now but it has the potential to set the stage for a chinese economy to dwarf all others once they enter another growth phase after the short-term goal of common prosperity has been reached i want to bring in now for the scary part one of dalio's worst case scenarios is that the us and the chinese might be on a conflict brink and that too it could be an open conflict the trade war that started during the trump administration in 2018 was essentially one of the first and most obvious moves in this global chess match with china but a chess match is exactly what we've been watching play out over the last several years the concern from that perspective is that what's happening later in the game when the metaphorical king gets backed into the corner he won't get too far into it but suffice to say china thinks taiwan belongs to them and taiwan thinks it's a sovereign nation as this issue is up in the air the u.s has been selling arms to taiwan for decades to build support against china the island of taiwan is only 100 miles from mainland china we value your enthusiasm so don't forget to subscribe to the money invest youtube channel and ring the bell to be informed of new episodes and keep watching so you can see how the situation is basically a tanker full of gasoline and it only needs a spark before you click away to grab a trash bin take a few deep breaths and remember this is dahlia's worst case scenario the world is far far better than it has been 100 years ago sure there are still conflicts every single day that make some of the past wars look like melodramatic rugby matches however the global superpowers still understand for the most part that peace is generally better for business than global war a lot of things would need to happen for active war to become an option that being said financial catastrophes are not uncommon putting sandbags outside your house might be overdoing it but you can put up some defenses around your portfolio and dalio has some tips for you there dahlia tip number one cash is not king dalio avidly recommends against anyone holding on to cash or cash equivalents the math here is easy and it's because of the rising inflation we are experiencing cash doesn't earn any interest by design it's meant to be fungible and very liquid but that means you take no risk and can gain no returns with inflation sitting above six percent any cash you hold on it is to be essentially losing six percent per year dalio tip number two risk management one of the first things dalio recommends you to do is to understand how to manage the risk that's in front of you you should think critically about what the worst case scenarios are and then figure out ways that you can minimize or even eliminate those scenarios from harming your portfolio diversification is one of the first steps in this but there are other ways to give your portfolio a bit more protection dalio tip number three diversification is your friend many of the smartest investors including warren buffett will tell you that diversification is not the best way to see good returns on your investment mark cuban in famous billionaire investor from texas would tell you diversification is for idiots dalio on the other hand has continuously said that when uncertainty is on the rise the best defense against losses is by diversification his flagship fund pure alpha is an actively managed fund on diversification assets it has only lost a handful of years over its entire life no one can know all things all the time about the market so make sure you take this advice to heart and gather information from several sources before making decisions that you should and dalio's words triangulate by taking the three smartest people or sources you know and comparing them to what you've learned from them and now we've reached the end of the video but wait make sure to leave a like and subscribe so you can join the money invest squad and be a part of the channel thanks for watching the video