저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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테슬라 로보택시 행사는 시각적으로 인상적이었으나 구체적 재무·일정 정보가 부족해 실망스럽다. 주가는 급락했고 우버는 상승해 시장도 회의적이다. 머스크의 운영비 주장(마일당 20센트 등)은 근거가 없다. 장기적으로 AI 투자 측면에서 테슬라 공매도는 위험하지만, 지금은 매수하지 않고 관망을 권한다.
다듬은 글
last night Tesla had its long anticipated wi robot event the big unveiling event for their upcoming Robo taxis and as you can see from the stock hideous 88.8% decline today let's just say it didn't go over well remember Tesla needed a win here around the middle of last year Wall Street realized that there just wasn't as much demand for electric vehicles as people thought eveve growth started slowing across the whole Auto industry and Tesla in particular just got clapped as it fa all sorts of new competition for more slowly growing pie hey some of these new electric cars from China are incredible and very reasonably priced Tesla actually saw it silvery shrig for the first two quarters of the year and they were only up in the third quarter because the company was lapping a bad production quarter from the year before and that's why the stock lost more than half of its value from July of last year through this April went it bottom to 138 what happened in April Ela must change the conversation even though Tesla reported a disappointing quarter must very effectively pivoted talking about self-driving cars and it all hinged on this Robo taxi event that's the whole reason to own the stock here I think something must flat out admitted on that first conference call that turned out around the stock for a while people liked it okay fact it nearly doubled in three months I got excited about it too but when Tess reported another week quarter in July and announced that the robo taxi event was delayed to October the stock was went into another Tail Spin of course it bottomed again within a month and then started ramping that move was all about anticipation not just of the robotex event but also for a rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve unfortunately when the wi robot event finally arrived the market just was not impressed sure anyone who watched this thing has to but this thing was visually stunning we're mesar by the office there were three main pieces of Hardware that debuted last night first is the robotex itself which must calls the Cyber cap good name a Sleek two-seater coup like vehicle with Goldwing doors and a clean simple interior no steering wheel or pedals only two people please cruly must said the Cyber cab will cost less than $30,000 so that small business owners can buy a whole Fleet of them he took a little ride one of these cyber cabs around the war Brothers lot to kick off the event and afterwards the teny had a chance to ride in it pretty cool Manny came away quite impressed of course there's nothing truly surprising here the surprise though was a new van or bus light vehicle that Tesla's calling the robo van which can carry up to 20 people and also transport Goods very Art Deco this is what we thought the future would look like when I was a kid which was like you know 100 years ago finally the coolest piece of Hardware we saw last night was Tesla's humanoid robot this I love okay Ally called the Tesla bot or Optimus now we've seen these things before but it's always cool to see the latest generation these robots last night they were dancing on stage serving drinks they even have some pretty good conversations with people must we iterated that these Optimus robots will be for sale at scale and will cost around 20,000 to 30,000 he said that Optimus could do quote anything you want so it can be a teacher a babysit your kids it can walk your dog mow your La get your groceries just be your friend serve drinks whatever you can think of end quote I I don't know I can use one of those my wife's bed me I like hey you know I'm want to kill some time when she's playing Candy Crush again Vis all this was stunning must really put the vision in visioner but what about financially oh really the finances okay look Tesla has a big problem electric vehicle Market turned out to be more than most thought if they want to Pivot to self-driving cars they need to really flush that out and last night we just didn't get much in the way of specific details one of my favorite analys Follow by name Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas and he some been a big Tesla fan but he published a reaction note to we robot and it was K this was really I saw this this morning said it's going to be a long day for this guy for uh for Tesla this is disappointing lack of detail and uh here's the issue it's very hard to get self-driving technology to work right and it's even hard to roll it out because you need to get local governments on board and the moment there's a single accident all the politicians Panic now must said that a full autonomous version of Tesla's driver assistance system would be available in Texas and California uh next year that's a genuine POS remember Austin's got it by the way Atlanta is going to use that wayos but when he was asked about the roboox timing the answer was underwhelming you got to listen to this this thing is really jar we expect to be in production with the the Cyber cap that which is really um highly optimized for autonomous transport uh in probably well I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames um but but in in in 2026 so yeah before 2027 let me put it that way uh needless to say that didn't inspire a lot of confidence and there was no timeline at all for the other stuff including the robots not many people can get away with what he just did and because he's a genius obviously we're going to look the other way but that was not good wor there wasn't a lot of substance to the demonstration it's not that hard to make a self-driving C to a predetermined loop around a closed course at a Warner Brothers lot I personally believe the Tesla self-driving Tech is pretty good but they didn't do much to prove it last night this is especially important because Google's wayo has a full Fleet of unsupervised autonomous taxes running Revenue generating roots in San Francisco Phoenix LA and Austin we were one in San Francisco I thought it was fantastic plus Beyond must very broke commentary on pricing there was little no detail on the economics at last night's event musk gave some info about some average operating cost of the Cyber cab saying it would cost 20 cents per mile run with customers paying 30 to 40 cents per mile now if that's true the Cyber cap does indeed have a major cost Advantage versus Way Mount which uses more complex and expensive liar systems for self-driving technology and musk also claimed that the robo van would have averaged operating cost of 5 to 10 cents per mile but he didn't give us any evidence so who knows whether these numbers are accurate or not at the end of the day the the Market's reaction tells you basically all you need to know let me put it this way not only did Tesla stock almost uh drop 9% but Uber which faces an existential threat from Robo taxis actually saw it stock rally nearly 11% climbing to new alltime highs Wall Street clearly doesn't have much confidence that the Cyber cab will be viable anytime soon or obviously we wouldn't see Uber stock roar like that and without the self-driving kicker Tesla's back to being an automaker that went all in on the decelerated electric vehicle space all that said I've been following Tesla for a long time now and historically the best time to buy is when everyone's doubting El musk we know from discussions with theid Jen Wong that Tesla's invested a lot of money in the type of infrastructure that you need for artificial intelligence a neural network at the end of the day autonomous driving is just AI so even though I definitely wouldn't be a buyer after the robotaxi event I wouldn't short Tesla either even if you don't want to batt with Elon Musk it's way too dangerous to bet against them here's the bottom line even though Tesla's Robo taxi event was gorgeous we didn't get enough detail to justify treating this company like an autonomous driving business rather than electric vehicle maker so for now I recommend taking a page from Switzerland and stay on the sidelines with this one there's just not enough specifics to hang a hatle that money is back head for the coming up is this company the bell of the ball Kramer gets his reps in on a power stock that's packing the protein
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