저자: Meet Kevin · 외국인
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이 영상은 최근 발표된 고용 보고서가 예상보다 강하게 나왔다고 설명한다. 지난달 2만 9천 명으로 낮게 나왔던 비농업 고용은 6만 명으로 상향 수정되었고, 이번 보고서에서는 16만 5천 명이 증가했다. 경제활동참가율은 61.8%에서 61.9%로 올랐지만 실업률은 4.2%에서 4.1%로 내려갔다. 가계조사 취업자 수가 지난 몇 달간 크게 늘어난 점이 이 차이를 설명하는 근거로 제시된다. 평균 시간당 임금 상승률은 지난달 0.1%에서 0.3%로 상향 수정되었고, 이번 달은 0.4%를 기록했다. 고용 증가는 전문·사업 서비스, 의료, 창고업, 제조업 등 여러 부문에 걸쳐 나타났으며, 건설 부문은 3천 명 감소했다. 발표 이후 12월 금리 인상 가능성이 74%로 올랐고 10년물 국채금리는 약 4.1% 수준으로 움직였다. 진행자는 시장 하락을 레버리지 청산에 따른 기술적 현상으로 해석하며 매수 기회로 본다는 견해를 밝혔다. 다만 이는 진행자 개인의 해석이며, 이란과의 협상 가능성 등 외부 변수가 남아 있다는 점도 함께 언급된다.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes. This is an absolutely insane labor report that just came out and it should really remove doubt that there is any issue in at least this side of the canary in the coal mine because holy moly. First of all, we are a bigger fan of the ADP report. It is the private payrolls report because I think it's a little bit of a check on government.
I think it's a little bit of a, you know, maybe a little bit unbiased. you know, they're not worried about getting fired if the report comes in bad. But it's worth knowing last month the report came in pretty low and a lot of people were concerned. Oh no, why is the labor report last month so low? Came in at 29,000.
Well, today we just moments ago got some incredible new data that that data well maybe it was due to low responses or something, but it got jacked right back up. It got jacked up to 60,000. Remember the last two ADP reports were 86 and that last BLS report was 29K which was on the low side. I'm like come on man just get us anything like 20 plus.
All right it 20 plus over 100 will be a little bit hot. Boom. We got 165. I'm like oh man that's really good for the economy. Could be a little warm on yields though. But anyway so we revised that prior read from 29 to 60. That's great. But this is the crazy thing. labor force participation actually went up.
And usually when the labor force participation rate goes up, the unemployment rate goes up because labor force participation right now is unusually low. It is quite low and that's that makes me nervous because if that were to rapidly normalize up, then the unemployment rate would skyrocket really fast.
And so anytime I see it tick up, I get a little nervous. And it ticked up. It went 61.8 8 to 61.9. Every one of those little points is massive when you're applying it to 150 million people, right? Closer to 160 million people now. But anyway, the unemploy uh or as a result of this this tick up, the unemployment rate actually went down about 4/10en of a percent.
So, we're now rounding from 4.2 on the unemployment rate to 4.1. Why doesn't the unemployment rate usually go up if the participation rate goes up? Well, it depends on the household survey. The household survey gives us the answer. Well, the household survey the last few months has been like on fire.
It's been like 400,000 400,000 400,000. Uh it's been a pretty good survey. Uh in fact, you could see that survey right here. In August, the uh uh employed portion of the civilian labor force went uh was 1627. That went to 1631. That's an increase of about 400,000, right? And then we had an increase from 163 in September to uh 1631 to 1636 in October.
That's an increase again of 463,000. So, because that household survey has been doing so well over the last few reports and this report, the numbers are also getting pretty dang good. There's little not to like here because we even got worker pee pee. Now I was a little bit surprised by this too because a lot of the latest readings that we've been seeing whether it's from uh Andre and Horowitz whe whether it's from Goldman Sachs whether it's from the prior labor reports some of the reports have been saying hey there is some impact from artificial intelligence on hiring and as a result worker pricing power is somewhat declining where in the last labor report we saw workers were only able to get uh average hourly earnings bumps of about.1% % which is really low.
You usually want to see it around.3%. That's typically what the Federal Reserve expects aligns with 2% inflation anyway. Somewhere between 2 to 3% on a month-over-month basis for jobs eventually trickles into about 2% inflation for consumer goods. That goes into our CPI PCE for the Fed, right? All that matters.
Well, worker pricing power last month was really low again coming in at 0.1, but today it comes back. Average hourly earnings last month were revised from 0.1 to.3. So, they cleaned up the mess again. You know, how much do we believe it? I don't know. But the ADP report is has been pretty strong. But anyway, average hourly earnings go from 0.1 to.3.
Today, the survey was we were going to get.3. We ended up getting 0.4 which is also very good. So, you know, I think there's this whole like idea that people have and I I made this little short video about this on X yesterday where I'm like how people think the market is efficient. And in my opinion, I think it's a complete hoodie duty cuz if the market were efficient, the market would understand it's going to take until middle of next year for governors and data centers with legislatures to potentially get affected or slowed down.
And the reality is over 86% of 2027 construction data center construction is already vertical. So this whole idea about delays and this market sell off yesterday. I think it was mostly driven by leveraged ETFs. Uh I think it was mostly driven by hedge funds potentially liquidating because they had to people getting margin called.
I'm so anti-lever. You add debt, you add fear, you add a catalyst. The everything looks gloomy. The economy looks gloomy. Everything looks bad when you add debt in. Like, you want to be an a-hole, just add debt. All right, but you know, that's also why right into the close you're going to see falls right into the close because that's when leveraged ETFs are typically going to rebalance.
And if everybody was selling that day, well, you know, that's when you're going to have sit in a hole. Anyway, I hope you bought the dip. We bought the dip yesterday. Well, big dip. Big dip by yesterday cuz it was a big dipper. Uh but anyway, um we always send those to everybody in reinvest one. uh you're welcome to join us over there if you want, but otherwise let's focus a little bit more on this labor report.
Overall, the hiring was relatively broad-based, which is also somewhat surprising. Uh a little bit I get a little jaded when it's so broad-based, honestly. Employment and professional business services up 70,000, well above the monthly gain of 15K. Uh employment and professional scientific technical services up 23K.
Admin and support 28K. So, professional business services in total added 269K jobs since a recent low in October 25. That's last year. This is just such a broad-based report. Healthcare 42, warehousing 25, manufacturing 19. Little changed in oil, gas, quarrying, uh, wholesale trade, retail trade, and info.
This is a seasonally adjusted report obviously. So is the ADP report. So I know sometimes people are like, "Oh, but the ADP 8686 is that is that reflect seasonal adjustments or not?" Yes. Yes. The ADP also seasonally adjusts. The reason they do that is obviously because if you know you're going back to school and teachers go back to school, you're going to see this massive move up in teacher employment and then what ends up happening?
Well, that same pattern happens every year. So we don't actually count those jobs because we look at the seasonal adjustment. Anyway, uh let's take a look at what good old Nick T is saying about this. In the meantime, uh we do have an indication here. Construction employment, which had been on the upswing with data center buildout, was with the data center buildout, was down 3,000.
So, we did get a decline in construction. Uh okay, they don't actually indicate here. They say little changed, but that was actually a negative 3,000. That is the first drop the sector has had. Manufacturing employment up. We saw that. Uh healthc care still adding 42,000 jobs. Average gain is 31 is typical.
Professional business services at 70k is crazy especially in the day of AI because you know that have been averaging 15,000. So it's it's a little weird. Yeah. But we have just shot up the odds for a hike in December to now 74% which makes logical sense. Uh we initially when this report came out we saw a uh bond yield increase on the 10-year of about six basis points and right now it sits at about 4.1 uh which is good that you know it's not like we're going to the moon here.
It's not like it's going up 10 15% you know basis points because that's that's when things would start getting a little bit nervous in the market. As long [snorts] as we're still sitting below 4.9, we still got that top in yields in. That's really good. There is also, by the way, now talk of and and and you know, this honestly after the election, I've gotten a little discouraged because I feel like the pressure is off.
But apparently, there is talk that the US and Iran are moving closer to a potential breakthrough in an effort to end the war with Thran now showing a willingness to discuss its nuclear program that had been off the table previously. So, the fact that this is coming forward with Qatari leadership in negotiations sounds really good, but it it is worth looking.
As Nick T says, any way you slice it, US payroll growth is picking up after a near stall last summer. And it's true. Last summer, we were near zero with the immigration efforts. Uh last winter, we were not looking good on the labor market. We thought we were going to break through zero, and it didn't happen.
The labor market has nicely recovered. You got to give it credit. 3-month average is the darker line color. Six-month average is the lighter color here. Uh and you can see just both of them are doing fantastically. We are literally reversing the pain that uh we had last year which which is honestly incredible.
Uh unemployment rate has been gently declining as Nick T here puts it and overall I have to say very good. Very very good. This reiterates, you know, people people make fun of me during the buy the dip time and it it I think it's hilarious because, you know, we look at it as, hey, like when when you're buying the dip when there's panic or pain or whatever out there, that's when money is made, right?
So, you go buy the dip. If people are making fun of you for buying the dip, that means they don't have any money. They're leveraged up. They're, you know, under the impression the economy is doing something that it's not. We look at the economic data. We should all be cheering by the dip. These hedge funds or leverage positions getting liquidated generate opportunities and that's my opinion.
So that's why I sit very high on the bearbull scale. Yeah, we still have this overhang of the Iran war. Of course there's going to be volatility around an election. Of course. Uh but I I still maintain we get an Iran deal. We're going straight up. We might be going straight up even without an Iran deal here.
If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you.
Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.
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