저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏의 투자 원칙(능력범위·자기투자·내재가치)을 소개하는 교육 영상으로, 특정 종목이나 시장 방향에 대한 예측은 없다. 영상 도입: 버핏은 1964년 버크셔 해서웨이 인수 이후 주가가 약 270만%(2.7백만%) 상승했다고 언급하며, 1964년에 1000달러를 투자했다면 약 2700만 달러가 되었을 것이라고 소개한다. 타이밍과 스트라이크 존 비유: 테드 윌리엄스의 '타격의 과학' 비유를 들어, 투자자는 좋은 공(자신의 능력범위 안 확신 종목)만 골라 치면 되며, 모든 공을 칠 필요가 없다고 강조한다. 남들의 '스윙하라'는 재촉은 무시하라고 조언한다. 능력범위(Circle of Confidence): 자신이 이해하는 영역 안에 머물고, 그 밖의 것은 신경 쓰지 않는 것이 핵심이라고 설명한다. 과도한 주식 거래를 경계한다. 독점적 해자 사례: 시즈캔디(See's Candies)를 예로 들어, 가격 인상에도 소비자가 여전히 구매하는 브랜드 파워가 강한 기업이 좋은 투자 대상이라고 설명한다. 자기 투자: 가장 좋은 투자는 자기 자신에 대한 투자이며, 특히 의사소통 능력이 가치를 크게 높인다고 강조한다. 자신의 몸과 마음은 평생 하나뿐인 자산이므로 관리해야 한다고 말한다. 단기 예측 불가: 6개월~1년 후 자회사 실적이나 10분 후 주식시장 움직임은 예측할 수 없다고 명시한다. 대신 20~30년 장기적으로 미국 기업 전체가 성장할 것이라는 믿음을 밝힌다. 내재가치 개념: 내재가치는 기업이 미래에 창출할 모든 현금흐름을 적절한 할인율로 현재가치화한 값이라고 설명한다. 주식은 채권처럼 미래 현금흐름을 추정해 평가하는 것이며, 주가 차트나 애널리스트 추천, 거래량은 중요하지 않다고 주장한다. 코카콜라 예시: 코카콜라의 시가총액(약 1,100~1,500억 달러) 대비 향후 수백 년간 창출할 현금흐름을 추정하는 방식으로 설명한다. 이해하지 못하는 기업 회피: 현금흐름을 추정할 수 없는 인터넷 기업 등은 투자하지 않고 회피한다고 말한다. 영상 말미: 진행자가 시청자에게 가장 기억에 남는 투자 팁(자기 투자)을 댓글로 남겨달라고 요청하며 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
warren buffett known as the oracle of omaha and the world's greatest investor he is chairman and ceo of berkshire hathaway and has a net worth of over 85 billion dollars pledging to give more than 99 of his fortune away to charity from 1964 when buffy took over berkshire hathaway it's now 2021 their stock has grown over 2.7 million percent which means that if you would have invested just a thousand dollars back in 1964 you'd have had upwards of 27 million dollars it all came from some key investing principles that we'll be looking at in this video today ted williams wrote a book called the science of hitting and ended he had a picture of himself at bat and the strike zone broken into i think 77 squares and he said if he waited for the pitch that was really in his sweet spot he would bat 400 and if he had to swing at something on the lower corner he would probably bat 235 and in investing i'm in a no called strike business which is the best business you can be in i can look at a thousand different companies and i don't have to be right on every one of them or even 50 of them so i can pick the ball i want to hit and the trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot and if people are yelling swing you bum ignore them there's a temptation for people to act far too frequently in stock simply because they're so liquid over the years you develop a lot of filters but i do know what i call my circle of confidence so i i stay within that circle and i don't worry about things that are outside that circle defining what your game is where you're going to have an edge is enormously important well i look for something that does give them a motor rod we have a company called sea's candy out on the west coast sea's candies box chocolates if you give a box of sea chocolates to your girlfriend on the first date and she kisses you we own you you know we can raise the price tomorrow and you'll buy the same box you're not going to fool her out with success so the key there is the response you do not want to go home on valentine's day and say to your wife or your sweetheart preferably they're the same person you don't say here honey i took the low bid it doesn't work price is to a degree is immaterial if you've got a economic castle people are going to come and want to take that castle away from you and you better have a strong boat you better have a nightmare castle that knows what he's doing by far the best investment you can make is in yourself i mean that for example communication skills i tell the students that come that they're going to graduate schools and business and they're learning all these complicated formulas all that if they just learn to communicate better and both in writing and in person they increase their value at least 50 percent and now i mean if you can't communicate somebody who says you know it's like winking at a girl in the dark nothing happens you know basically and and you have to be able to get get both your ideas and uh and that's that's relatively easy i did it myself with the dale carnegie of course some people wish i'd taken a shorter course now in terms of my talking later on but it it's just hugely important and you if you invest in yourself nobody can take it away from you i mean you but i do tell them those students you know that if i gave you a car and it'd be the only car you're getting the rest of your life you take care of it like you can't believe any scratch you'd fix that moment you read the owner's manual you keep a garage and do all these things and you get exactly one mind of one and one body in this world and and you can't start taking care of it when you're 50 by that time you'll rush it out if you haven't done anything so you you should just really make sure that you just remember that you just got one mind and body to get through life with and to do the most with it i don't have the faintest idea what our businesses will be doing six months from now or 12 months from now i do think that not only our businesses but american business generally will be doing fabulously better 30 years from now or 20 years from now and the the long term is very in my view is very easy to predict in the general way but an important way i don't think there's any way to predict what the stock market will do 10 minutes from now 10 days from now or 10 months from now so i work on what i think i i'm able to do and as desirable as it might be to know what was going to happen 10 minutes from now i'm just that's just not something i'll ever be able to master so fortunately i can come to a pretty firm conclusion that 20 or 30 years from now american business and probably over the world will be far better than it is now it's how do you find intrinsic value in a company well intrinsic value is what is the number that if you were all knowing about the future and could predict all the cash that the business would give you between now and judgment day discounted at the proper discount rate that number is what the intrinsic value of businesses in other words the only reason for making investment and laying out money now is to get more money later on right that's that's what investing is all about now when you look at the stock when you look at a bond so means united states government very easy to tell what you're going to get back it says it right on the bond it says when you get the interest payments so when you get the principal so it's very easy to figure out the value of a bond it can change tomorrow if interest rates change but you are the cash flows are printed on the bond the cash flows aren't printed on a stock certificate that's the job of the analyst is to print out change that stock certificate which represents an interest in the business and change that into a bond and say this is what i think it's going to pay out in the future when we buy you know some new machine for shaw but to make carpet that's what we're thinking about obviously and you all learn that in business school but it's the same thing for a big business if you buy coca-cola today the company is selling for about 110 to fifteen billion dollars in the market the question is if you had 110 or 15 billion you wouldn't be listening to me but i'd be listening to you incidentally but the question is would you lay it out today to get what the coca-cola company is going to deliver to you over the next two or three hundred years the discount rate doesn't make much difference after as you get further out but and that is the question how much cash they're going to give you this isn't a question of you know any question about how many analysts are going to recommend it or what the volume in the stock is or what the chart looks like or anything it's a question how much cash it's going to give you that's the only reason it's a true if you're buying a farm it's true if you're buying an apartment house any financial asset oil in the ground you're laying out cash now to get more cash back later on and the question is is how much you're going to get when are you going to get it and how sure are you and when i calculate intrinsic value of a business when we buy businesses and whether we're buying all of a business or a little piece of a business i always think we're buying the whole business because that's my approach to it i look at it and say what what will come out of this business and when and what you really like of course is them to be able to use the money they earn and earn higher returns on it as you go along i mean berkshire has never distributed anything to its shareholders but its ability to distribute goes up as the value of the businesses we own increases we can compound it internally but the real question is berkshire selling for we'll say 105 or so billion now what can we distribute from that hundred if you're gonna buy the whole company for 105 billion now can we distribute enough cash to you soon enough to make it sensible at present interest rates to lay out that cash now and that's that's what it gets down to and if the if you can't answer that question you can't buy the stock you know you can you can gamble in the stock if you want to or your neighbors can buy it but if you don't answer that question and i i can't answer that for for internet companies for example there's a lot of companies all kinds of companies i can't answer for but i just stay away from those number two i hope you guys enjoyed learning how to invest with warren buffett what was your favorite investment tip mine was investment tip number three invest in yourself comment below your favorite one remember if you write it down you're more likely to remember in the future and apply it later on i hope you guys enjoyed today's video and i brought some value to you guys i'm wishing you guys a great day thanks for watching
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