저자: Devil's Advocate · 외국인
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what you learned from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years of century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market falls 10 we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the market's gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen it would be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what you own is a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further gonna go down i remember when polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 135 to 100.
it's not 95 what a buy within a year was 18 and this is kind of a no debt i mean this company was just so overpriced it went down uh i did the same thing in my uh my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries had gone from 26 a share to 16. i said how much lower can it go it's 16. so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the new year on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14.
i said you know it's gone from 26 to 16. how much lower going to go well at 10 i called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10. well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh now i unfortunately have rapidly i would probably be still caddying or i'll get up working at the stop and shot but it happened fast it was it was compressed and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kaiser aluminum they own thirty two percent of guys of cement you know kaiser broadcast and then kaiser same gravel kaiser engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that it's a real achievement they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747 i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but uh i said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares of countries meant the best chairs it has aluminum they passed out the public shares and ties and steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got to 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now you flip a point you walk around the block you know what do you do it's psychiatrists that haven't worked so far i've never seen them running the psychological psychiatry fund i've never seen this for the with the sec to make it through as a mutual fund so i they haven't seen the help uh i've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down eventually they always come back uh this one is uh this one doesn't work either uh people think uh rca just about get back to 1929 high and general electric took it over uh a lot of double knits never came back remember those duties uh uh floppy disks western union uh the list goes on and on uh people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come out uh here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can i lose i've had people call me up saying i think i'm buying this stock at three how much can i lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh if you and if you put twenty thousand dollars in stock fifty or your neighbor put twenty thousand pool and 50 to the start and you put twenty thousand dollars in three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can i lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the only this may be a reason researchers thought the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at walmart they're not sure at home depot they're not sure they're great pumpkins johnson johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 70.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown taps yet it's going to zero and if they're selling short seven they're selling a short six five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know what should sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you want to who's buying this thing is these people saying it's three how much lower can it go
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