저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
요약 보기
드러켄밀러는 현 시장이 QE의 거품과 재정 방만, 공급망 문제, 지정학 리스크로 조정이 필요하다고 보며 단기 주식은 횡보 또는 약세를 우려한다. 거시 경제 및 금리 전망: 미국 기업들은 장기 채무를 만기 연장했지만, 과거 QE로 쌓인 유동성이 빠르게 줄고 있고 QT·유가·금리 상승이 경기를 압박하고 있다. 2024~2025년 사이 무언가 깨질 수 있으니 열린 마음이 필요하다고 말한다. 미국 주식시장: 2022년 이후 시장은 정체되어 있고 S&P500 PER은 약 19배에서 25배 수준으로 올랐다. 정상 PER은 약 15배라고 보며 현재 약 20배는 과도하다. 내년 실적 증가도 기대하지 않아 S&P500은 향후 6개월 내 횡보가 최선이라 본다. 개별 종목보다 시장 전체 롱은 매력이 낮다고 평가한다. 채권 및 금리: 과거 35년간 채권 강세 베팅이 유효했으나 현재는 장기채(30년) 숏을 유지한다. 단기 2년물에는 대규모 롱 포지션을 잡았다. 장단기 금리차 확대(스티프닝)를 기대하며, 이는 보통 연준이 금리를 인하할 때 나타난다. 그린 경제 및 AI 테마: 바이든 정부의 IRA 등 친환경 정책 지원이 신재생 인프라, 친환경 기술, 정책 수혜 기업에 기회를 줄 것으로 보았다. AI는 기술·헬스케어·금융 전반에서 기회가 크며, AI 대체 위험 기업은 숏 후보, AI로 효율이 높아지는 기업은 성장 가능성이 있다고 분석했다. 포지션: 알파벳(구글) 1억 달러어치 매수, 위라코프(Wira Corp)·시트(Seate Technologies)에 각 6천만 달러 규모 지분 매수 등을 언급했다. 기타 포지션 상세는 자막상 불명확하다. 리스크: 지정학 리스크(세계대전 가능성 포함 낮은 확률), 공급망 문제, 재정 방만, 상업용 부동산 및 주택담보대출 부담 증가가 주요 위험 요인이다. 출연자 전망: 드러켄밀러는 단기 주식 기회는 제한적이라 보고, 금리와 채권 구조 변화 및 AI·그린 테마에서 선별적 기회를 찾을 것을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
would you agree would you agree with the idea that us exceptionalism has been financed by fiscal recklessness possibly is that the reason why rates are so high therefore the dollar strong uh rates all the QE that we did to our to support our fiscal recklessness actually allowed consumers and corporates to get their balance sheets correct and all that was kind of borring from the future that's why we're so so strong now but when we actually have to deal because I think the US is the fourth most indebted country in the world uh behind behind Japan Italy Greece thank you um so when we actually have to deal with that issue does that mean us exceptionalism goes away and therefore Poss possibly the strength in the dollar possibly the strength in the stock market just just kind of unpack what happens to asset classes if you would given the world that we're going to face recently I stumbled upon a conversation featuring Paul tutor jnes and Stanley draam Miller both considered among the brightest Minds in the financial World they delve into the current state of the United States addressing economic and geopolitical challenges they talk about the impact of artificially inflated markets and the massive amount of us de and try to predict the short and Midterm future of our economy keep watching because in the video dra Miller also shares his ideas on what assets investors should look into in an economy like this and what he is investing in well our exceptionalism extends Way Beyond the area we're talking about um we we're still leading we've let every technology move in the last 35 years and now we're we're leading AI our military is still strong while we're all griping about where we live talk to One immigrant who doesn't like laugh at you and saying man if you think it's bad here yeah uh this is the greatest place in in the world to live but yeah um because of our Reserve currency status we we've gotten away with a lot yet um corporations have termed out but only till 25 or 26 mortgages a little different um it'll take five years to get the average mortgage up to 5% new mortgages are over eight but the average mortgage is 3.6% but we also had all this Legacy liquidity after uh the fed and uh Congress did their thing in Co that's running down rapidly we have QT running down rapidly oil interest rates are up it all it all Targets toward this has been an ephemeral period um when at least the equity market and the economy has ignored stuff but but looking out particularly in 25 but maybe in 24 you have to be open-minded to to something breaking and don't forget I quoted you averages economics works on the margin so yeah there's companies that have turned out there's also a bunch of small businesses out there are really hurting and you could we're starting to hear anecdotal evidence for the first time it started about five weeks ago that on the margin things are get things are getting softer the United States is currently the world's leading power and as such it's often the subject of Doomsday predictions in the finance World while knowledging some truth in These Warnings it's essential to recognize the US's dominance in driving technology and maintaining the strongest military globally but we have to keep in mind that the recent methods employed by the US to bolster its economy would most Nations lacking the benefit of having the reserve currency if we take a look at the stock market we can see that it has been pretty much stagnant since the beginning of 2022 even though we're in a quite hard period in terms of inflation and interest rates if we take a look at this year's performance the S&P 500 is up around 11% which is not bad at all but a more interesting indicator is the S&P 500 speed ratio which in The Last 5 Years is up from 19 to almost 25 times earings draer thinks that we lived in a world of quantitative easing for a long time and now it's time for the market to normalize he also talks about mortgages it's evident that really real estate has witnessed a significant slowdown due to escalating interest rates we don't even have to talk about commercial real estate which is in the most trouble but in the big picture if mortgage rates are rising then people will have to allocate more of their monthly income to pay their mortgage because of that people will have less money to spend elsewhere combine that with the current geopolitical challenges and it's not hard to agree that we have to be open-minded that something will break but let's hear what he bu in times like this and what it thinks people should invest in so let's just go through this stocks again with the world that we're facing what's your what's your investment strategy for the stock market stocks in particular um the the stimulus the Biden Administration has done is obviously very targeted most of it toward green economy um the IRA um and it's bigger than they said but you got subsidies and tax breaks on top of it that um will create opportunities in the stock market there's a big thing going on in AI that'll probably create opportunities in the St stock market but that very stimulus puts pressure on rates which will cause all kinds of other things within the stock market to break look we've been through um two or three months of a pretty devastating period all I know is every sale I made I'm happy about and every buy I made I'm not thrilled with um the sentiment positioning is such that I'm not really excited about being short uh in their intermediate term maybe more importantly longer term um we have this belief in this country that stocks always go up over the longer term uh I said a couple years ago and I still believe it I think the S&P was 4500 about where it is now that um I thought the equity Market would be the same place in 10 years it is to that it was then why did why did I say that um because again we had a bubble we had a QE period for 10 years and we need we need to make an adjustment fundamentally and price-wise and if if you look at the market in the in the non QE World pre-World 15 times earnings was about right we're at 20 times earnings um I don't know what we're doing at 20 times earnings the that's earnings that are supposed to go up next year no that's that's that's sort of our estimate of of of where they are where where they're going to be this year but I don't think they're going to go up next year you know I think flat at best um so it it's hard for me to get excited about the Longs side of the overall Market forget individual stocks um with the market say 20% above its normal valuation when you have the F fiscal recus problem you have supply chain problems you have the worst geopolitical situation I've seen in my lifetime 7879 was bad but I mean for the first time we it's a very low probability but you got to put the potential outcome of world war on the table um not exactly an environment that excites me about paying 20 to 30% above the multiple for Equity prices so you know the next 6 months um who knows and and we're certainly washed out to some extent but luckily I don't have any clients so I don't have to worry about um fomo and you know performing and I just find the equity Market the market as a whole um not that interesting but I do find very interesting things all along in the short TI it's been an interesting Year we're we have not lost money in our shorts this year shows you how how narrow the Market's been and we've done very well in our longs interest rates short rates are just over five long rates are around five what's your thoughts on two years and 30 years it's a great question um normally given the economic Outlook I have which is something's going to break the anecdotal has turned oil interest rates in the dollar up never been good for the economy I would be long bonds that would have been my process the last 35 years because because of the rant I went on the first 15 minutes I'm not only not long bonds I'm short bonds but because I'm now worry about the actual economy um I mean here's the sequence I was short bonds from May until July by themselves in July I kept that Bond short and I added a 2-year long and more Bond short about two to three weeks ago I started to get really nervous about something break and I don't want to over intellectualized bonds but because of everything we talked about I didn't want to cover them so I bought a massive leverage position in two years so I'm now long a lot of two years I already had a steeper on and I'm short 30 years but I I now have an overage in two years so I'm actually long fixed income for the first time since 2020 but to be clear I'm short bonds along the front end while D Miller says he is not particularly excited about the overall Market as he still believes that it will be flat for a while he expects to see opportunities as a result of the green economy stimulus and the rise of AI governments worldwide are committed to reduce carbon emission and shifting towards renewable energy sources like solar wind and hydroelectric power the US government just announced a 20 billion stimulus in the field this transition opens opportunities in various sectors when it comes to renewable energy there are three main sectors you should probably look into first is infrastructure investing in the development and expansion of renewable energy infrastructure such as solar Farms wi turbines battery storage facilities then technology companies involved in developing in Innovative green technologies like energy efficient Solutions electric vehicles and sustainable materials are poised for growth and lastly policy and regulations investments in companies that comply with or benefit with government policies and incentives promoting sustainable and clean energy he also talks about the opportunities created by ai ai isn't A New Concept but this year's widespread adoption notably with the mainstream launch of CH GPT splurt major Tech firms to leverage AI for business purposes this search continues to generate and foreseen opportunities both in the short and long term companies at risk of AI driven replacement could be potential short targets while those enhancing efficiency through AI might experience substantial growth the impact of AI developments hold the potential for significant fluctuation in various company trajectories AI is expected to have a significant impact across various sectors notably in technology health care and Finance in the tax sector AI focused companies engag in machine learning robotics natural language processing and automation are becoming pivotal investment opportunities in healthcare AI is driving transformative changes by introducing Predictive Analytics personalized medicine and advanced diagnostic tools thereby opening avenues for investment in healthcare technology likewise within the finance industry AI driven algorithms are revolutionizing Financial Services they're reshaping processes such as algorithmic trading risk assessment and fraud detection presenting compelling investment opportunities in the first half of the year the stock market showed positive momentum but in the last two three months it has remained rather stagnant dra Miller attributes this performance to the long period of QE during which a substantial portion about 30% of circulating dollars were created within just the last four years contrary to the common belief that stocks tend to rise in the long run driller suggest a different scenario he anticipates the market to potentially remain flat in the foreseeable future owing to the effects of QE persistent supply chain issues and the geopolitical landscape which although a small possibility includes the risk of a global conflict driller also emphasizes the simultaneous rise of oil interest rates and the dollar historically when these three elements surge within a year it has a terrible effect on next year's earnings but knowing all this what he invests in now he said he bought a massive bullish position in two-year bonds he spared long short Bond bets being that he's expecting the yield Cur to steepen a move that typically happens when the Federal Reserve Cuts interest rates in terms of stocks he also made 100 million betat on alphabat and bought $60 Million worth of shares in wira corp and seate Technologies thank you for watching
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