저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
마크 페이버는 스위스 Partners Group 등 사모펀드·에버그린 펀드에 대한 불안을 짚으며, 블라인드 캐피털 구조와 사모 투자의 부실 가능성을 경계했다. 미국 기술주·반도체·AI 관련 자산은 밸류에이션이 과도하게 높고 투기적 과열 국면이라 손실 위험이 크다고 봤으며, 암호화폐·사모펀드·미국 기술주 추종을 피하라고 조언했다. 앤트로픽·OpenAI·SpaceX 등 대형 상장 이벤트는 시장 고점의 징후일 수 있다는 입장이다. 미국 시장은 2021~2022년 밈주식 고점 이후 상위 약 50개 기술주와 매그니피선트 7, 반도체 종목이 지수를 끌어올렸다고 분석했다. 대신 태국 주식시장은 상대적으로 저평가돼 있고 배당수익률 6~7% 수준의 포트폴리오가 장기적으로 유리하다고 언급했으며, 다만 유동성 한계가 있다고 덧붙였다. 스위스 물가는 공식 통계와 달리 체감상 매우 비싸지만 교육·교통·우편 등 공공서비스 품질이 높다고 평가했다. 스위스 중앙은행 금리 인하(0.25%)와 ECB의 뒤따른 인하가 자산 인플레이션과 부의 불평등을 키운다고 우려했다. 중동 전쟁과 호르무즈 해협 통제 문제는 중국·인도·러시아 등 주요국이 미국의 해협 통제를 원하지 않아 복잡하다고 보았다. 이란 경제는 전쟁 이전부터 나빴다고 평가했으며, 미국의 개입은 글로벌 위기를 낳은 실수라고 비판했다. 스위스의 EU 편입에는 강하게 반대하고, 중국·인도·인도네시아·브라질 등 신흥시장과의 교역을 강조했다. 전기차 대체 가능성이나 드론 택시 등 기술 트렌드에 대해서는 회의적이었다. 관련 종목 중 삼성전자·SK하이닉스·금·비트코인 등 개별 한국 종목에 대한 직접 언급은 없었으며, 반도체·AI 밸류에이션에 대한 경계 발언이 주를 이뤘다.
다듬은 글
So, the stock exchange is open and Mark Faber is also here. Uh Dr. Mark Faber, hello. Yes, good evening, good day to all viewers and listeners. Good, right. Um you have recovered splendidly from the trip from Switzerland. Uh how's that? Yes, how are you doing? It's going very well, thank you. Good. Now, something is happening uh in Switzerland at the moment, specifically with Partners Group.
I don't know if you have read or heard about it. There are certain uh anxieties among shareholders with these evergreen funds, which seem a bit strange to me. Binding capital for 10, 15 years and not knowing how it will end. What do you think about that? Yes, uh that's called blind capital, which is invested without the investors knowing what happens with it and uh they must, of course, have a lot of trust in the partners and the leadership of the Partners Group.
Mhm. I assume that the partners of the Partners Group are very diligent and capable people, but with the private equity and private debt market, uh a lot of investments have been made that are not necessarily very good and they may have been poorly rated intentionally or unintentionally. I don't know.
In any case, there is a malaise is on or I would be somewhat cautious with private equity. Uh I thought and that all is a place to Swiss insurance companies, which are of course deeply mired in the mud with these private equity fund. Mhm. Mhm. Yes, you have already warned before that something like this can happen.
Like that the cap, yes, the share buybacks, that this can no longer be done or only limited, like with these evergreen funds where you receive a maximum of 62% and then it's finished. In any case, you say the goal is no longer profit, but to lose as little as possible. And which assets do you see as the most resilient for Swiss and European investors?
Yes, that is a good question, and the audience is of course not focused in its investment strategy on how to lose the least, but rather on how to earn the most. Because the enthusiasm in the stock markets at the moment is very high, and all investors are speculating on something on cryptocurrencies or on private equity or on American technology stocks or on artificial intelligence and so on.
There is currently a massive wave of speculation, which of course will not develop well in the long term. At times these stocks might rise, but when they fall, they fall by a large percentage. So, I would be extremely cautious there would rather refrain from or warn against investing too much in these stocks because they have already risen significantly and are already highly valued.
I must emphasize that the valuations on the American stock market for everything related to technology and semiconductors are enormously high. Mhm. Uh something is going to happen in the market soon and that's Anthropic and Open AI. These are the two largest AI exponents. Uh they are apparently going public and uh so you warn against investing too much there.
Yes. I would not buy any of these stocks, but I am not the benchmark for what one should necessarily do. Uh but my view is that these stocks including SpaceX, which is now first coming to the public, that this is actually a symptom of a market peak, a high point of the stock market from which it will fall for years.
Mhm. Most stocks are not at a peak. Most stocks in America reached their peak in the year 2021-2022 at the height in the popularity of the so-called meme stocks. Those were stocks like AMF and uh GameStop and so on. Once the sector has already fallen very sharply, but what has driven the index up are around 50 stocks in the technology sector and recently around 20 stocks, the so-called Magnificent Seven and the semiconductor stocks and everything related to AR.
Yes, then let's switch over to your favorite topic, inflation. How does it look now in Switzerland? And you were there recently. How did you experience the inflation there in Switzerland? What is interesting is that the Swiss government and the statistical office claim that there is practically no inflation in Switzerland.
But when you travel to Switzerland, and this is not my remark but the remark of many foreigners who travel to Switzerland as tourists, everyone tells me Switzerland is incredibly expensive. Well, if there is no inflation, then Switzerland should be cheap or at least not so expensive. And indeed, in various surveys, statistical surveys, Switzerland is considered one of the most expensive countries in the world.
I always respond to these critics, yes, that is difficult because a Swiss household, I I look, for example, at my brother's household. He was a lawyer. He has since passed away and had two children. The children went for free to the kindergar- kindergarten, free to primary school, free to high school, and so on.
And the university also for a minimal amount. In America, such an education would cost around half a million, and it would be a great burden for a household. And in Switzerland, they still receive child allowances. Mhm. Yes, if you have child if you have children, yes. As a foreigner, when you travel there and take the train or book a hotel and so on.
Yes, Switzerland is expensive, but they also have high quality. Show me a place in the world where you can get on a tram and the tram is relatively clean. It's not as clean as it used to be, but it's relatively clean. And it's comfortable. You can actually glide into the tram with a wheelchair and so on.
Also, the railway. Where in the world does the railway work so well? Where in the world does the postal service work so well? For that, you pay something. And also in a restaurant in Switzerland, generally speaking, I'm not saying there are no exceptions, but generally speaking, you get a tablecloth and a napkin and service that works reasonably well.
Mhm. I hear enthusiasm from you and you are also excited about Thai stocks lately. Did I hear that correctly? Right. Yes. Yes, the Thai Stock Exchange last year performed poorly, but then they start to rise. And not everything has become relatively expensive in the investment markets because of the madness of the central banks which have printed money and pushed up the assets.
But the Thai stock exchange compared to other exchanges like Hong Kong, Singapore, America, Switzerland and so on was relatively cheap. It is still relatively cheap. Well, I could put together a portfolio for you here in Thailand of let's say 20 stocks that would have a dividend yield of around 6 to 7%.
I can give you stocks that yield 8% but other stocks might yield only 6%. So, in short with this return of 6% you are relatively protected in the long term. Of course, under the condition that the dividends are not cut. That you select the stocks meaning choose the titles that are unlikely to cut their dividend.
It's not 100% certain but this is my experience of which my portfolio is that the dividends yields have actually rewarded you in the long term over 10 years. Mhm. Yes, that sounds good. Better than the AHV, right? Very good. Yes. Yeah. The AHV It partly has a different objective and has so much money that it cannot invest in Thailand.
It can but the market here is not very liquid. In other words, it It difficult for them and me to suddenly invest a billion there. You understand? They might be able to invest a hundred million, but uh they would have an impact on the prices. And uh that is of course a certain problem that there are stocks which are attractive, but they are not liquid enough.
In other words, you and I can let's say buy 100,000 or 1 million, but it is so difficult to make an investment of 100 million. Yes, can foreigners even invest in the Thai stock market? Yes, of course. Because they are usually so pro pro protectionist and uh then Yes, so look, protectionists uh you see Switzerland is also protectionist and America the most.
So, no one needs to tell me that poor countries like Thailand are protectionists. Of course, they have a tendency towards protectionism. But, we have now seen that the Western countries are even worse. Ideally, they would like to eliminate China because China can produce significantly better products than the Europeans and has already far passed uh passed Europe in technology today.
Far, not a little, far. That's true because I'm also going to China uh to Shenzhen uh for the first time, and I've already seen a few things on YouTube, of course. And I've also noticed that, for example, the Audi is much cheaper there than in Europe and better. Yes, of course, of course, but this stupid media, I in Europe controlled by the greens and socialists do not report on that.
That's true. That's true. Then the Swiss National Bank has already lowered the interest rates to 0.25% and the European Central Bank is following. Does that mean Frankfurt and Zurich are repeating the same mistake as the Federal Reserve or will the little people end up paying the bill for everything again?
Yes. So throughout the entire history of humanity, it has always been as you described the little people and the poor people who have paid. That is quite clear. Wealthy people have more power even in a democracy and depending on how the democracy is structured, but let's say in America, it is quite clear that in the last 30 years the wealth gap has significantly increased with the middle class actually becoming poorer and the super rich, the 1% getting richer and richer and having more and more power.
I am not complaining because I have benefited from it, but I am simply saying as an economist and social observer, it is a disgrace. But isn't it the same in Switzerland? Yes, in part it is because of the socialists because the socialists can be bought by the rich people, right? The rich people actually like the socialists very much because they can easily be How do you say paid?
Mhm. Mhm. Okay, understood. What do you What What do you think of the sustainability initiative? Will it benefit Switzerland? Yes or no? What is the sustainability initiative? That is when you cap immigration at 10 million. So, that would basically be the 10 million initiative. Yes, I would reduce it to 8 million.
Sure, right? Okay. Is immigration really such a big problem for Switzerland? It's not a big problem, but it's a question of the standard of living and what kind of composition of the population you want. I assume when I was growing up in the 50s, the number of Swiss was around 6 million including guest workers and today we are at nearly 10 million.
Mhm. And I am of the opinion that the roads are congested and the railways are congested and the country is actually not equipped infrastructure-wise for 10 million. But wouldn't it be better to invest in new technologies because the automobile will probably disappear at some point with the technologies we have today.
For example, drones in China, drone taxis for instance, uh and there are really quite a lot in circulation. I believe, as I have read, over 1,400 and over 5,000 robot taxis. Yes, uh that is possible, but you also have to park your drone at home in your garden, right? There is also a traffic problem in the air, so I do not assume that every idiot can just fly around in their drone without certain traffic regulations.
Maybe maybe I think I grew up in an apartment building with several families and so on. If someone were flying around with a drone at 1:00 in the morning and uh making a lot of noise, I assume the tenants wouldn't have been too uh happy. Yes, yes, I would be interested in how one how one there I say uh at the moment, it doesn't look like the car will suddenly disappear.
It will be replaced by another vehicle, possibly, but uh the car is actually like a carriage or a horse. Uh vehicle the horse vehicle survives survived for thousands of years. It is already improved over time, but I would like to point out that around the year 1800 the roads in Europe and especially in America were naturally not as good as during the time of the Romans.
Mhm. Mhm. Yes, they were full of horse manure and that's why uh the automobile industry was thought of invented so that Yes, yes, that must have had an incredible smell in those cities. Exactly, exactly. Yes, what is the situation in China? And China will never allow the USA to control the Strait of Hormuz.
What does that mean for Europe, which is energy politically squeezed between Washington and Beijing? Well, the Europeans are not actually stuck. They have trapped themselves with their stupidity and with these green and socialist political forces that dominate the government. Uh, but it should not have turned out this way.
And I I assume the war in the Middle East is complicated because actually no one can withdraw for domestic political reasons. I mean Trump, he would most like to cancel the exercise in the Middle East because it annoys him every day and is not very favorable for him politically, but it's difficult for him to just withdraw because the whole world would say the Americans were defeated, so they stay there.
And Israel, it has goals that we might not understand, but possibly from an Israeli from an Israeli standpoint understandable. Israel might feel threatened. They do not assume that Netanyahu feels threatened, who is a Zionist and a murderer. That's what he is. And I strongly reject this policy, of course, but it is now a situation from which he cannot withdraw because because his political future depends on it and his goal is actually to have a greater Israel including the Gaza Strip and ideally including Lebanon and Jordan and Iraq and ideally up to Russia.
Yes, that is Yes, that's true. True. Yes, Zionist uh well, most Jews are reject that, but you will never or rarely meet a Jew who speaks against Israel. If there are two or three people who argue against Israel, including Jeffrey Sachs, he is a professor at at Harvard. He is very critical of it. But, it is difficult for Netanyahu to withdraw.
And Iran economically before this war, it was doing poorly economically, and it is doing poorly economically now. But, the that's the population doesn't notice it so much because it was bad before, and now it is still bad. Mhm. Yes, um And it is clear that the Chinese, the Indians from the north, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and then further north Russia, and in the west Turkey, and in the east Afghanistan, Pakistan, India.
That all these countries do not want the Americans to control the Strait of Hormuz. That is quite clear. The Arabs do not want that either. The Saudis do not want that either. That would be a long story. By the way, India Yes, I assumed that would be that is not immediately solvable. Yes, yes, India is too.
It is complete foolishness that this intervention was undertaken. No, yes, it generated a major global crisis, and especially for Thailand, for example, it also became a problem. We have fewer tourists. Well, the Thais already had fewer tourists because the Chinese are traveling abroad less at the moment, but there are also other reasons.
In my opinion, the government in Thailand is not particularly foreign friendly at present. I could be wrong, but that is my view. Mhm. Yes, I think some still hold that view at the moment. Then, wealth inequality at a record level. You already mentioned that. We know that in Switzerland, too, is direct democracy still an effective corrective or does capital also buy the people's will?
Good question. I can't answer that easily, but I assume that the concept of democracy, where everyone can vote, is a flawed concept and will fail in history. Don't we? We have but have we have a history of humanity that is described so in writing. Documents exist that are around 6,000 years old. Mhm.
And democracy in its current form has existed for a maximum of 50 years. Or before, we already had democracies in the 19th century in England and partly in America, but only a few people could or were allowed to vote because it was voted on. Only landowners in England and people with a certain income and so on.
And women in Switzerland couldn't vote until recently. That's also correct, in my opinion. Yes, that's also correct. Okay. My mother would be in big, uh, trouble if she heard that. Was your mother a strong woman? Yes, very strongly. And above all, she advocated for women's right to vote. She even organized and participated in a march to Bern.
Okay. By the way, uh, earlier you mentioned India, and I read that India is on the rise in the pharmaceutical industry, in the pharmaceutical sector. They are slowly overtaking Switzerland. How do you see that? Countries like India and China and others will naturally catch up and surpass Switzerland in many areas.
Mhm. Uh, basically, I believe that Switzerland has opportunities in niche areas, like small businesses that can produce a screw of better quality than anyone else, or a small machine or something. But it is, of course, more expensive. Mhm. But there is a market, uh, that is focused on these specialized products.
For example, uh, speakers. Mhm. There are certain companies, about five in the world, and three are in Switzerland, that produce, uh, high-quality speakers and amplifiers, the amplifier machines, uh, and so on. And that is intended for an audience that is very interested in quality, not mass demand.
Mhm. And therefore, Switzerland has a certain chance. But mass products are washing machine. There There the Chinese can, of course, produce a better washing machine and significantly cheaper than Switzerland. Yes. Yes, the most likely thing is that Switzerland anyway. India then later on and so on.
So, I see a difficult time for Switzerland, but it will be even more difficult if the people in Switzerland are foolish enough to vote for integration into the EU. That would be a total catastrophe. Just look at von der Leyen. Yes, I know. Laugh when she says something. I have never heard an intelligent word come out of her mouth.
Never. Mhm. But, what would Switzerland do uh without the connection to the Not that I am a supporter, but they say Switzerland is totally dependent on the EU uh because of the economy, because of exports. Uh what should Switzerland do then? That's nonsense. It's complete nonsense that is being signed and spread by the proponents of Switzerland's integration into the European Union.
The future of Switzerland lies in business with countries like China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Pakistan, Bangladesh, and so on. These are the big market. The European markets are shrinking. And number two, if you sell a car or a product in Europe, you are competing against equivalent products from other competitors.
Meanwhile, if you conquer the market in a country like Indonesia or Brazil and so on, you have your own niche. That is a big difference. Yes, only with Russia then. But look, the Swiss who thought until a few years ago that the Chinese were so dumb and assembled shoes in factories and will never have branded products and in technology simply adapt products that Swiss geniuses invent who were indoctrinated at universities in Switzerland with socialism and green theories.
Exactly. Uh um uh just one last thing. Switzerland really messed up with Russia um um and with China, too, because they were never active. They are now slowly becoming active with China, but of course it's too late. Uh the train has probably already left with China or what do you think? Well, there are companies like Schindler which have been in China for years and so on and and are well-established and and also Booker and so on.
But it's Yes, yes, but I just say in general the popular impression is that the Chinese simply sit in factories and assemble something and the Swiss geniuses invent. So, that is the big impression and it is completely wrong because of course much more is invented in China than in Switzerland. That's it.
Uh uh the uh the society because the country is larger and uh the country produces half a million engineers, mathematicians, physicists per year. How many physicists and mathematicians does ETH produce per year? A few hundred, I assume. It is uh uh a well-paid study or statistic to sell Switzerland as the most innovative country in the world.
And we know that's not the case. It's about other things, more about patents in the pharmaceutical industry, and not real innovations in other areas. Correct. All right. So, Dr. Marc Faber, thank you very much for your time. It's always a pleasure with you. Thank you. I say and I'm happy to say share this as on thank you.
Goodbye and have a nice day and a nice week and a successful year. Although I'm not very optimistic about the investment market. Mhm. Look at maybe about Switzerland in the future, too. Yes. Thank you. You are sitting in a first-class cabin in Switzerland, but the first-class cabin is also in a decent Okay. Thank you very much for the final words. Thank you.
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