저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
포트녹스 금 감사가 흐지부지된 점을 의심하며 금 보유 실재성과 토큰화 금의 장점을 강조. 비트코인은 실체가 없어 장기적으로 가치가 99% 이상 하락 가능하다고 비판. 아들의 AI 생산성 낙관론에는 효과가 수십 년 걸린다며 반대. 금의 가격 상승 방향에 대한 명시적 단기 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
with Fort Knox. [clears throat] What's been going on with conspiracies that there's no gold there? But that maybe the gold had at some point been removed or replaced. Well, you know, it's hard to believe there's no gold there. But what's very interesting about the whole thing is that in the in the early days of the Trump administration, there was a lot of talk about auditing Fort Knox, about going down there.
Yeah. And all of a sudden, crickets. Like no one talked about it. And so the question is why? Why were they so gung-ho about doing an audit? And then all of a sudden, it's like the forbidden topic. Nobody will even mention it. It never comes up. That's a little curious cuz it makes you think that maybe somebody said something to the president like we probably shouldn't do the audit because, you know, it's not there or it's not all not there, and that's going to be a big problem if the world knows it's not there.
And it would be a big problem. Uh so, the fact that the whole thing just got buried under a a big rug uh makes you think that there's something going on. This is one of the positives about Bitcoin is that you can verify it though on chain. Yes, you can verify how much nothing everybody has. Yes, that's you know, and gold is easy to verify, too.
If if you allow it, right? Yeah, you need an audit, but yes, I understand that if I have gold if I have Bitcoin in my wallet, you can verify it. Now, if you have tokenized gold, you can verify that, too. But again, to verify that the gold is actually behind the token, somebody does need to go in there and like count it.
And you know, somebody reputable. So, yeah, that is one of the things that is good about Bitcoin and interesting about it is that you could verify it. But I said, "Look, you're very You're verifying how much nothing I have. So what You know, when people say, 'Oh, look how easy it is to transport Bitcoin.' Yeah, because you're transporting nothing.
It's not It's not hard to trans- In fact, Bitcoin doesn't actually get transported. It Bitcoin doesn't go anywhere. You know, it's just one wallet has it and now another It's not like the Bitcoin goes from my wallet to you. The Bitcoin doesn't go anywhere. It's just we just changed the wallet address.
That's I signed to that Bitcoin. But if you're dealing in nothing, then yes, it's easy to transport it. Gold is real. It has substance. And so yes, you do have to transport it. But the beauty of tokenized gold is I don't is is there, I don't have to move the gold. See, most people when you're using gold as money as opposed to using gold, you know, in industry, you don't actually need the gold.
You just need to own the gold and you need to be able to transfer that ownership to whoever you're doing business with. And so when you tokenize gold, that improves gold as a medium of exchange. It makes it even better than it was in the past because I don't have to give you my gold. I just have to give you the proof that I own the gold.
And the minute I give it to you, now you own that gold. You know, now if you actually need the gold for some reason, you could get it. If you decide to become a jeweler and you want you know, you want some gold, you could actually go get your gold. But if you don't need the gold, you can use the gold to buy something that you do need.
And the person who's selling you that will take your gold. But what do you think about your son buying Bitcoin though? But he's not buying it anymore. I mean, he bought some years ago, but he's completely lost interest in Bitcoin. that affect your relationship with him because I saw you called him brainwashed?
He was. Bitcoin. He was brainwashed, you know. I mean, I look, all the young you know, I I I I get into these debates. I had another one uh just the other yesterday, I think, with Anthony Scaramucci. And, you know, they always like to say, "Look, it's the young kids, you know. Yes, all the old people in our generation, we're buying gold, but, you know, it's the the young generation, the kids, who are buying Bitcoin." And I'm like, "Yeah, exactly, but I'm not going to take my investment advice from a bunch of kids.
You know, kids make mistakes. They're They're They're new, they're young, they don't have the experience, they don't have the wisdom. Uh and they're making a lot of mistakes buying Bitcoin. Now, when a lot of the 20-somethings, you know, grow up and they're my age, they they they they'll know better.
And one of the reasons they'll know better is they'll remember how much money they lost with Bitcoin, you know, and the best time to lose money is when you're young. Did your son make or lose money on Bitcoin? He made money, but he's pretty much sold the Bitcoin that he had. But, he did make money in it, yeah.
Would you rather have one Bitcoin right now or 1 oz of gold, but 100% you had to hold on to both for 5 years? Oh, well, obviously, if I had to hold on to them both for 5 years, I would I I think the ounce of gold will be worth more. But, obviously, if I can sell right now, I would I would take the Bitcoin, I would immediately sell it.
Uh but, I you know, maybe if you gave me that Bitcoin, I could find a way to hedge it somehow. I could I could I could I could short something or get some kind of derivative instrument. Because, yes, there is a high market price. Right now, Bitcoin is 60 what, 6,000? And And gold's only 5,000. But, Bitcoin is going to continue to lose value relative to gold.
Eventually, it won't have any value whatsoever. But, you know, I I I I no longer think Bitcoin is going to zero anytime soon. I I get that there's enough people in the cult now that will buy it and will ascribe some value to it. But let's say Bitcoin just falls to a thousand dollars, which I think is still a lot of money for nothing.
But if Bitcoin falls to a thousand dollars, it's certainly a long way from zero. But if you bought it at a hundred thousand dollars that's not going to be much of a consolation. Well, it's not zero. Okay, but you lost 99% of your money. I mean even if you lost the last 1% at that point, it wouldn't be that big a deal.
So, I think for all practical purposes for most people who own Bitcoin it may you know, it may as well be going to zero. They're going to lose almost all of of their money. What is your son investing in now? I heard he's getting big into AI. That's it, right. He's not investing in anything. I guess he's just investing in his career trying to you know, trying to work.
But yeah, he's very much into AI. And you know, he was in the gold. I he was in the gold and silver before he got into Bitcoin. And so he lost interest in gold and silver when he discovered Bitcoin. And then he lost interest in Bitcoin when he got into AI. Cuz he kind of thinks that look AI is going to lead to such massive efficiencies in production that prices are going to collapse because everything is going to be virtually free.
So, he doesn't think there's any reason to have an inflation hedge because everything's going to be so cheap in the future. Do you agree with him or what do you think? Well, I do agree that in the future things will be a lot cheaper and a lot more abundant. He just thinks the future is years away, like one, two, three years away.
I don't think that it's going to happen that quickly. Even though what's happening with AI and the technology is certainly evolving very quickly and it's getting a lot better very fast, I don't see that it's able to translate into that kind of productivity in that short a period of time. You know, I think I think I think it's just going to take more like decades, not years.
And um you know, but I think there will be some benefits in the near term, just not to the degree that that he seems to believe. And really quick, I got to say something that Jack and I have been trying to do a lot more lately is just to remove the annoyances that quietly waste time and energy because those things add up fast.
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