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hey jj here again with the out of value this is episode 76 and today we're going to talk about i'm going to respond to a video uh an interview with howard mark's legendary legendary value investor howard marks now i had a interview on bloomberg and also today i'm trying something different i'm going to put the first two minutes of this on twitter as a video so if you're watching this on on twitter uh click one of the links to go to your choice or to see the full video if you're interested in seeing the rest and the my twitter is the added value if anybody else wants to join me there okay let's get straight into it i want to start with trying to understand investor psychology and as a student of history where are we right now in terms of bullish or bearish um i think that attitudes were quite very bullish prior to a few months ago with the exception of a brief respite during the pandemic we've been in a bullish climate since uh since the end of the global financial crisis in o nine not wildly bullish not certainly not what i would call euphoria uh but optimistic and that has been crimped now uh you know a lot of the big name stocks are all 50 70 80 percent uh the whole market is off uh i guess uh probably uh 15 percent from the high so i would say that uh attitudes are more balanced today uh but uh you know when when there's euphoria when there's optimism when there's greed when there's risk tolerance and so forth that's a very difficult climate for the value investor to find uh bargains so we're happier today than we were six months ago i don't know if we're going to be happy or six months from now that is to say that the bargains will be more pronounced but at least the as they say the bloom is off the road so he's saying that there's uh you know for as a value investor there are more bargains around or margin of safety i guess so he's happier now than he was during our more more elevated market we didn't said it got too elevated but you know obviously the innovation type stocks are down 60 70 80 percent even more so it's good hunting ground for value investors in this environment okay the next question is about uh how do you position going at the moment uh financial media is always keen about how do you position here and there rather than being more long-term but uh so you know talking about where he says in the next six months at a time of such incredible uncertainty how do you position seeing value now but also preparing for seeing more value in six months you know one of the six tenets of oak trees investment philosophy which we established when we started in april of 95 and i've never changed the word and i believe in thoroughly is that uh we're not market timers and and that means mostly two things we never sell to raise cash to to prepare for a decline uh and we never say it's cheap today but it'll be cheaper in six months so we'll wait if it's cheap today we buy it if it's cheaper in six months more we buy more uh and i think that that works much better than an assertion that we know where the market will be in six months okay so that's interesting again there's something that buffett has said as well i think we're here you know if some don't like catching a falling knife especially momentum traders but invest you know value investors long-term investors if it's cheap you know it's cheap uh based on intrinsic value of the company we're not buying if it goes down in six six months it keeps going down keep buying so you're kind of averaging down but if it's cheap it's cheap we just you can't predict the market uh so he's he doesn't mind so-called catching a falling knife and the next one is going to be about prospective returns in terms of price deterioration let's have a look everybody gets concerned when prices decline but if you flip that over the flip side of price deterioration is increases in prospective returns so now the prospective returns are on many asset classes are higher than they were just a little while ago and uh again a much better climate for the bargain hunter some people would counter this by saying inflation takes a lot of the value out of okay so that's interesting too saying that you know the better forward returns should be where prices are cheaper you talk about asset classes but talk about stocks as well if so if uh in terms of price multiples so i know that buffalo berkshire bought apple when it was like 11 or 12 pe for instance and now or recently i haven't looked recently but like to around 34 35 so obviously if you get multiple expansion if you buy a cheap anyway you think it's cheap and you get multiple expansion as well as the company growing you both and the share price should go up so that's what kind of he's talking about there but he referred to asset classes so it could be a whole asset class really like that that's kind of undervalued okay let's see if we can find the next one it is around here let's try an increase in real returns how much are you trying to game out where inflation is going to go over the next six to 12 months considering the fact that i know that you do not time the market or look at a sort of day-to-day price swing kind of issue but this really does determine how important some of these returns will be going forward yes it does but i don't think there's anything to be known on that subject and i'm sure we don't know it you know and another uh tenet of our investment philosophy they're only six we're going to touch on two today is that we our investment decisions are not based on macro forecasts macro forecasts are very important the only problem is they're rarely right and and more importantly any one forecaster is rarely right more often than the others so we don't make our decisions on that basis we are what's called bottom-up investors we invest on the basis of of micro not macro companies industry securities and we feel there through hard work and skill we can get an edge so where okay so that's important too saying we don't want to invest based on macro so he might know a lot about market cycles written a book about market cycles which is worth reading another book about uh uh the most important thing and of course there's many most important things that he talks about but in terms of inflation and the macro forecast saying that forecasting you know somebody might be right one time wrong another time we don't try and do it and buffett also says that where they're basing on fundamentals at the micro level of each company and not worrying too much about uh the macro environment and sometimes the macro environment will drive prices down but it's still based on the fundamentals of the company all right so the next one we're getting close to the end uh where do you see where the question is about where they seeing deep value at the moment let me see if i can find the right place for that about here you know they are much more spread around than they were before uh you know some growth names uh are are offering much better value than they did a year or two ago down 70 percent but you know we continue to find uh opportunities uh throughout uh the uh the investment universe uh um and uh you know the prosaic industries uh are also offering uh good good value when you talk so talking about yeah interesting the growth companies are cheap some of those ones some some emerging tech for instance down 60 70 80 or more percent so are they this is why it's kind of silly to talk about growth and value growth companies and value companies value stocks growth stocks because uh as bucket buffer says again uh growth and value joined at the hip i mean if growth companies drop 60 percent or 60 or 70 or 80 percent did they become value do they come become value stocks it just doesn't make any sense so he's seeing uh sort of bargains in a number of energy including prozac so even in the kind of more boring unimaginative not innovative he's seeing value there as well okay so uh let's see investing in elsewhere outside the u.s there's a question on that which is interesting to talk to listen to as uh are also offering a good good value when you talk about the global investment picture i know over the years especially as the u.s yielded less and less and yet less in real terms and in nominal terms you looked overseas in particular to china as a potential area of perspective return has that changed as yields have gone up in the us and frankly the economy has slowed so substantially in china well on the one hand we have a preference for investing in the us uh you know the u.s in most regards has the best economy in the world and it has the an excellent environment for rule of law for being able to predict the outcome when uh when various stakeholders rights come into conflict that's very important to us especially you mentioned our business in in distressed debt investing that's very important if you're going to buy distressed credits to be able to predict how we'll be treated by the law on the other hand from time to time other parts of the world offer better bargains we have the best in the us but the best usually doesn't come cheap so and third on the third hand we like to have some diversity in our portfolio so you know we've been investing in places like china and india china in the last couple of years and and absolutely will continue to do so when i hear people say you know i've made my living for the last 50 years investing in the things other people said were uninvestable high-yield bonds distressed debt emerging markets in 98 etc and when i hear people say that china's uninvestable to me uninvestable says maybe there are some bargains there if if everybody else is boycotting that sector yeah that's interesting saying uh you know everybody's uh concerned about in china about investing in china and saying it's universal that's when he gets interested i've heard him say that before in a reason and he pricks up his ears when he says something's uninvestible which means there could be something to it um especially not necessarily greater risk but definitely uncertainty so uh you know you mentioned china and india there that they've been investing in so one more one more let's see i'm going to go right to around 10 40 in the video and because he has something interesting to say that again a lot of these things are it's very similar to the point is an area like private lending where we're very active uh has been a darling in the past a decade a lot of money and a lot of managers and a lot of funds have moved into the area buffalo always puts it best when the tide goes out we find out who was swimming without a bathing suit when when economic and financial conditions become more difficult we find out who made good credit decisions and who made bad ones we'll see what's interesting so yeah the tide's going out and let's see if something naked as brother put it not without a about a bathing costume uh so yeah talking about who's made bad decisions this gets revealed when uh when the title goes out when times economic times change it's fine when there's a bull market and there's a lot of money around lose money lose credit but when the tide goes out we see and we've seen that with some of those uh funds that and invested it uh they're bought really high ones that say that valuation doesn't really matter too much price doesn't matter but we've seen you know if you're down 90 percent um maybe you could have got that a little bit cheaper or maybe it was a bad decision in the first place i don't know especially um there's a lot of things in margin there's been a lot of margin lending a lot of options trading by retail investors and that's kind of subsided okay one more let's see where we are uh about let's see here we go it's become more difficult we find out who made good credit decisions and who made bad ones we'll see what's the historical precedent for this moment for this moment okay so this is uh talking about it today's situation he's had a lot of experience well 50 years or more saying if this macro environment is somewhat similar to anything else that he's been through before oh you know it's very hard to to to find one that fits exactly um you know we've never had this externality of the pandemic there hasn't been a war going on in a long time and in an important international conflict uh with the threats this embodies we've never the u.s never had an economic rival like china before we never really had an economic rival since world war ii but and of course we have historically low interest rates we've had we had interest rates went down by what we call 2000 basis points that is to say 20 percentage points from uh 82 to 22 and that was a big tailwind so these conditions are are not reminiscent of any that i've lived through uh but i think the important thing for your purposes and hopefully your audience's purposes is that i think that our are taken as a whole i think conditions are fairly normal today in terms of how you should manage your money and and the risks you should take and to me that's the key decision all right so that's interesting saying that uh it's not remiss the conditions aren't really reminiscent of anything he's been through before and uh but it's kind of normal in terms of carrying on investing and he he kind of says that they're fully invested they try to be fully invested uh but he's not seeing it as anything to be kind of freaked out about not not that extraordinary even though there are it's not uh you know especially interest rates been going down since the early 80s and to to basically to zero and um now they're going up again all right so that's it for that one i hope you enjoyed that if you did if you want to get more uh more of the content next time we'll be notified on subscribe on youtube on spotify video there's the two video platforms just subscribe and follow where you can enjoy millions on the outer value and for audio on other platforms like apple and google et cetera wherever you get your podcast okay see you next
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