저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
QQQ는 일간 MACD·RSI가 과매수 근접 구간이며 신고가를 경신 중. 9일 이동평균(약 283.26달러 부근)을 1차 지지로 보고 롱 진입 시 목표 274.79, 손절 254.45를 제시. 숏 진입 시 282.12달러, 목표 263.06, 손절 289.79. 과거 2008년 3~5월 유사 패턴 비교로 1~5일 후 약 -2% 하락 가능성을 언급. 확률 모델(0~4% 상승, -9~-4% 하락 등)을 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
hello viewers we'll be going over to nasda how i developed that idea so let's start off with the technical analysis we're currently up 18 basis ur macd and are resting along the nine action on the pharmacy and is beginning to diverge we're nearing overbought rsi as well daily macd and we're also nearing overbought rsi we continue to make higher highs and make an all-time highs this week and at the moment the next possible support will be around the nine moving average this blue line right here and that is around the price of 83 262.83 so that will be our first immediate support and prof that position will be a 258.66 and that is around the range of this price right here and as for the cell target for that position is and 274.79 cents and my stop loss for my long position is 254.45 however if i do want to make a short position on qqq i would enter it at 282 dollars and 12 cents and my cell target for that short position will be 26 263 and six cents and my stop loss will be 289.79 so how did i develop the trade ideas the the bullish and bearish ratio and the range come say 38 chance for qqq to climb between zero to four percent and to downsidercent and say four percent to negative nine percent so which one of these eight models we should use as a reference so we'll check out the line graph here the blue line is our current trend and the line overlapping it happens to be the best match so right here we have our current trend and the trend below it is the one that we found on the line graph above this train dates back to march 5th to may 30th 2008 so let's begin comparing both of the trends on the current trend we have one two three four five points and on the trend in question we also have one two three four five points so there's reason to believe that the trends and patterns are somewhat the same the outcome and forecast should be fairly same so again the model that we just examined was back in march 5th to may 30th 2008 so we forecast one day out two days out three days out four days out and five days out so back then the sm qqq or nasdaq was down roughly around say two percent and if we head back to the day-by-day probability model that coincides with this standard deviation of 50 ercent so let's examine closer on the technical performance of each trend so on the current trend which is where we are right now and then the trend pass right here back then it was zero percent away from monthly high on a current trend where is also zero percent for monthly high back then it was up say 18 from monthly low on current trend we're up 19 from monthly low and back then it was up two percent from 10 simple moving average and on the current trend we're up three percent and as for the 20-day moving average back then it was up two percent compare that to the current trend up three percent and as for the 50-day moving average back then i was up say seven percent compare that to current trend of up eight
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