저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 현재 시장이 거품 상태이며 부채가 역사상 가장 높아 향후 큰 위기가 올 수 있다고 경고한다. 채권은 거품, 일부 국가 주식은 고점 부근, 부동산도 많은 곳이 거품이라고 평가하며 상대적으로 싼 자산은 원자재뿐이라고 본다. 미국 연준과 각국 중앙은행이 돈을 찍어 시장으로 흘러들어 주가가 오르고 있으나, 실물경기와의 괴리 때문에 결국 대가를 치를 것이라고 주장한다. 미국 대선(11월)을 앞두고 정치권이 단기 부양책을 이어가 당분간 시장은 괜찮겠지만 부채 문제는 계속 악화된다고 본다. 은과 금을 보유 중이며 2019년 여름부터 다시 매수했고, 특히 금은싼 편이 아니며 금/은 비율이 역사상 최고 수준이라 은이 상대적으로 저평가되어 있다고 본다. 농업은 여전히 재난 상태이나 기회가 있다고 보고, 항공·관광 등 여행 관련 산업은 크게 타격받았다고 언급한다. 러시아 해운회사와 중국 와인회사를 최근 매수했고, 미국 달러를 많이 보유하고 있으나 달러가 과대평가되면 팔 생각이라고 말한다. 이번 코로나 사태 이전부터 미국 시장이 10년 넘게 오르며 거품이었고 조정이 필요했다고 본다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone and welcome back to the wealthy brains today we're going to be talking about the jim rogers and his views economy american investor jim rogers is perhaps most famous for having retired at age 37 to travel around the world after having made his fortune in the quantum hedge fund he co-founded with billionaire george soros for the last decade or so he's been living in singapore with his family part of a long-term bet on the future of asia as a source of global growth and as a result made sure his two children became fluent in mandarin and chinese culture in an interview for a marketplace morning report from the bbc world service he issued a note of caution about market conditions i think everything has done badly roger said people couldn't work people couldn't eat and people couldn't do anything but as i look around the world bonds are certainly in a bubble stocks in some countries are near highs property in many places is in a bubble about the only asset class i see that's still cheap are commodities what is your view of the world how bad the damage is and how are you looking at complete reboot in 2008 the world had a big problem because of too much debt since then the debt has skyrocketed everywhere and even in india and china 10 years ago china had virtually no debt now they have a lot of debt everywhere does the next time we have a problem and we're having it right now it is going to be the worst in my lifetime it is a simple statement the debt is much much much higher now it has to be worse we have these problems every few years while the u.s markets has been reacting as if nothing has happened in the world i looked at nasdaq last night it is in the green how remarkable is that what do you mean nothing has happened what are you talking about the united states is spending trillions with the t and printing trillions of dollars what do you mean nothing happened the bank of japan the guy goes to work turns on the printing presses print as fast as he can all over the world all these central banks and governments are printing and spending and borrowing as much as they can of course the market is going up do you think given the way how markets have gone up both in india and internationally there is a huge disconnect between the ground reality and the market levels yes of course there is but remember what i just said nearly every country in the world is printing and spending lots of money now and that money has to go somewhere it is going into markets and that is what happened they say the excess money goes into markets remember there is an election in the u.s in six months in november and all those guys want to get re-elected they do not care about you me and our kids they care about november and getting re-elected so all sorts of good things will keep happening and the markets will be okay for a little while however the debt is going through the roof everywhere the money printing is everywhere and eventually we're going to pay the price it is often said that you should never fight the fed would you apply this again all this money is going to go somewhere the federal reserve in the u.s started it do not fight the fed but eventually we are gonna pay the price when i spoke to you a couple of years ago about eight to ten years ago you said if you want to get rich you need to do one thing which is buying a silver spoon stacking sugar in your pocket and starting eating rice if somebody wants to make money in the post covered world what is the secret recipe i own silver and i own gold i stopped buying it for a while but have not sold i have never sold any in the summer of 2019 i started buying gold and silver again agriculture is still a disaster but it has probably got great opportunities if you buy the commodities themselves it is hard to get rich in agriculture in india because the indian government protects farmers oh those poor farmers they could be rich if the government would leave them alone agriculture gold and silver some parts of the world economy have been smashed transportation airlines tourism and anything to do with travel has been killed i bought a shipping company in russia last week and a wine company in china last week some of these things have been really being down and probably even if the bear market hits again they're probably not going to go down much i hope are you fully invested in the market fully invested no no no no i am too lazy much too lazy i have bought some things and continue to buy i own a lot of us dollars because when the turmoil gets bad again and it already is people look for a safe haven do you think that u.s dollars are safe haven it is not but they think it for a historic reason compared to the euro and other things so i own a lot of us dollars and is going to get overpriced i hope i'm smart enough to sell it when that happens and put my money elsewhere maybe in gold often when the dollar goes up a lot gold and silver go down silver is much cheaper than gold right now on a historic basis the ratio between gold and silver is the highest it has ever been recorded in history so silver certainly is not overpriced in 2020 you have always said that in markets the same thing keeps on repeating itself again and again it is a cycle of fear and greed and you need to figure out which template is at play what does the current medical crisis remind you of when did we see the economy shrink like this before it may be at the beginning of the first world war maybe in august of 1914.
in europe in 1914 everybody thought everything was okay and nobody expected a gigantic world war but no it has been anything quite like this markets were overvalued the u.s market has been going up for over 10 years the longest in american history and it was sort of a bubble there everything was going straight up for a while because of all the money printing and the market was due for a correction or for something to happen and along came the virus but something always comes along this is it for today folks if you enjoyed the video then leave a like and if you are new then do not forget to subscribe see you till the next video
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