저자: IAMJERM · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 Daily Journal이 2021년 말 기준 알리바바 보유량을 약 60만2천주(약 7,200만 달러)로 늘려 9월 말 대비 거의 두 배가 되었다는 보도를 근거로, 발언자는 알리바바가 저평가된 장기 매수 대상이라고 주장한다. 멍거의 추가 매수는 주가 하락 중 이뤄졌고, 발언자는 이를 강한 확신의 신호로 해석한다. 다만 중국 규제, 미중 관계, 마윈 관련 리스크는 인정한다. 밸류에이션 근거로 선행 PER 약 12.5배, 후행 PER 약 17.5배를 제시하며 역사적 PER(2020년 12월 약 17.5배, 최고 23배대)과 비교해 주가가 크게 저평가되어 있다고 본다. 이를 근거로 현재가 대비 상승 여력이 크다고 말한다. 실적 전망으로 2022년 매출 성장률 23.7%, 2023년 17.7%를 언급하며 성장 둔화 우려를 일부 제기한다. 그럼에도 발언자는 계속 분할 매수 중이며, 레버리지(LEAPS) 투자도 고려 중이라고 밝힌다. 발언자는 알리바바를 포트폴리오 최대 비중 종목 중 하나로 보유하고 있으며, 수년간 보유할 계획이라고 말한다.
다듬은 글
alibaba and a lot of the chinese companies and plays are very very controversial stocks and stock picks in the market right now with some people having very very high confidence and very very high conviction behind the fact that they think these chinese stocks are way way way undervalued especially you know when we're talking about rising inflation concerns the united states and and you know talking about the the 2022 everything bubble and just how so many valuations and metrics and everything are so out of control and that a crash is due and in some ways if obviously if a you know united states asset crash does happen that could be good news for baba if um you know different uh financial metrics for the united states keep increasing if inflation keeps increasing if the dollar is like weaker and weaker a lot of these things could be very very good for baba now obviously baba has its own fair share of downsides with um chinese and united states kind of relations being a huge huge question and you know the stock price uh and you know having a lot of support from american dollars and then also you just have the crackdown on big tech over in china all the jack ma drama news you know they don't know what the next kind of regulation or sanction or whatever against baba's gonna be and then there's concerns over whether they're even growing as much as some people would have hoped or whatever but um at least in my opinion and opinions of others baba is a great great play in the stock market right now i've been putting my money where my mouth is you know been continuing to buy the dip and buy the dip and buy the dip i think my cost basis for bob is around 140 or something like that um but one of the biggest uh obviously proponents of baba at this point is charlie munger you know this is you know the the long time right hand man to warren buffett and just a legendary stock market investor and stock picker and the news coming out today was that charlie munger's daily journal this is obviously one of the investing companies he has nearly doubles its alibaba holding daily journal corp a newspaper and software business that counts uh charlie munger as chairman nearly doubled its holding of chinese internet giant alibaba group shares in recent months now obviously this stuff doesn't come out the very day it happens you know it comes out a little bit down the line when these reports and everything comes out so it's not like he bought these shares today you know he's bought them within the past three months i'm pretty sure um but this is still very very big news because what what they're going to say here is that the daily journal held 602 000 uh shares of alibaba at year end this is at the end of 2021 you know we're now reporting this on 2022 um which is around a 72 million dollar position you know we're not not talking about anything too massively insane especially you're talking about like buffett and mongering guys like these who have probably just some insane and ridiculous positions but um 72 million in baba is no laughing matter you know this is a serious serious conviction play here from monger but the interesting thing here is that um as of september 30th 2021 they had 302 000 shares and since then obviously if you've seen the baba chart let me see if i can find where september you know right around here is at 1 45.
uh and we've continued to dip we've hit 111 i know it's been below 120 a couple times we're sitting at 119 right now so this thing continued to dip and dip and dip from where you know munger was in at a 140 150 160 maybe even some shares in the 200 range and some people were wondering like hey maybe munger's lost his touch what is he doing here why is he buying this thing that just keeps tanking and tanking and tanking has he sold out has he bought more is he just chilling um and i think anyone who thought he sold out uh doesn't really have a good idea of monger and buffett and that group of people you know they're not making investments for three months for six months for even a year they're looking 2 5 10 longer years into the future and i don't really think they cared that much if baba kept tanking if they have a long-term bold thesis for a company if they think this company is undervalued if they see either future growth potentials in baba if they think it's undervalued if they think the u.s chinese relations are either kind of overblown the drama there or if they think things are going to get better you know or just a multitude of different reasons they're going to invest in baba and you know them buying the shares that they did i think was a great sign and it's not the only reason i'm in baba and it's not the only reason that a lot of other people are as well but it definitely feels better knowing that you're on the side of charlie munger you know rather than being on the side of some guy on wall street bets or some guy on twitter or reddit or something like that but um obviously yes his original positions he is down on it is kept tanking and tanking and tanking but to see that he has doubled down to see that he has bought the dip that is a very very good sign because it means even though the stock has continued to tank even though their last or most recent earnings report quarterly earnings report wasn't ideal it wasn't a 10 out of 10 by any means it wasn't completely disgusting but there was definitely some downsides and some negativity and stuff there it means that he still remains very very excited and still very very confident in this company for the long term because again they they doubled their position they went from 36 million in stock to putting in another 36 million dollars to again get up to the current position of 72 million which i think is pretty crazy um but when you look at this company by you know all uh typical you know metrics especially right now while the stock market is so overpriced and and so many massive companies are growing quarter by quarter year over year all that stuff but man some of these valuations are just getting really really expensive really really pricey you know the so much of the future growth is is priced in and they need to just be absolutely perfect a company like baba doesn't need to be i mean if you look at this right now they have a p e ratio of 16.77 that is crazy um you know just a year ago they were at 236 they're down um like over 50 percent from from where they're at there and then if you look even at the all-time highs of like 305 uh it's just crazy how much beaten down this company is it would make it look like it's a just a terrible terrible company and it's simply not that we dive into some of the numbers a forward p e of 12.5 uh currently for a company like alibaba is just absolutely disgusting that is so so undervalued um it is so so underrated um you know you have the trailing p of 17.53 which again for a high growth company like baba in the current market that is so so low if this company didn't have all the fears of the united states and china if it didn't have all the fears of the jack ma stuff and you know kind of china coming down and cracking the whip on them and everything this company could easily be two three four times as much as it is right now uh and obviously that's what baba investors are hoping for for that day to come when a lot of these negative factors that are pushing it down and pushing it down ease up and let this thing really flourish to be the the awesome company that that it is obviously it's not a perfect company it's a company with flaws and downsides and stuff but um some of the exciting stuff here i think is um obviously this company is just a revenue beast a profit beast they just make a ton of money in the next year you know eps estimates around 8.44 into 2023 eps estimates of 9.65 this thing is really expected to keep growing it has a ton of analysts following it obviously right now you know in this last quarter we were sitting at around 22 analysts which is nice um the sales growth into the next year into 2022 is expected to be 23.7 uh again for a what 350 billion dollar company 23.7 sales growth year over year is crazy um one thing that does scare me a little bit is they're only projecting 17.7 percent sales growth in a 2023 so that's a significant step down it really does seem like at least people are projecting that sales growth to really see a halt uh and that would concern me a little bit but obviously that's very very far out that's two years ahead of the future um so you know obviously analysts can change gro estimates can change so much stuff can happen i mean think about where we were two years ago at this time uh covid you know wasn't even a thing on anybody's radar so we will definitely have to see how that goes but i mean you can even see over here in this world where we have all these companies that are so you know highly valued and so overpriced to see a company this good this cheap with still so much growth ahead in its future um to me this just seems like a no-brainer and again that's why i am continuing a couple times a month i'm continuing to just buy alibaba no matter the price i love all these prices and you know when you base it off some of these uh metrics in the past that uh when you look you know they're forward pe previously this company had been trading at a in uh december of 2020 it was trading at around a 17.5 uh 4p it's about 50 higher than it was right now which just from fundamentals alone could put this stock uh at around like 180 um but it's had you know pe's as high as 23.36 which is almost double that could have a set like 240 if you look at things like price to sales it's traded at almost four times higher its current price to sales previously and that would have us in that three four five hundred dollar range i mean this thing is just cheap relative to its own history its own path and past and relative to the market as a whole and again to see a guy like charlie munger you know buying the dip doubling down is a very very exciting sign and you know it makes me confident to just keep highland money into baba i'm considering you know throwing in so in some money on some leaps and stuff like that just because um i do think this is going to be such a good stock and such a good pick for the years to come but for now i'm definitely trying to get my hands on any shares that i can it's one of the biggest uh current positions in my portfolio and i really expect it to be one of the biggest positions in my portfolio for years and years to come and it's just a company that i'm very very excited about at this time and i'm glad that charlie munger is as well but that is pretty much every video today guys definitely drop like if you did enjoy i would appreciate it so so much leave a comment down below let me know what your thoughts on on baba are i'd love to hear your guys thoughts and opinions subscribe save today and all my latest content hope to catch you guys the next one but until then peace
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