저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 에이비스(Avis) 실적 서프라이즈 후 급등은 공매도 숏스퀴즈와 헤지펀드 숏 포지션 구조에서 비롯된 것으로, 공매도 세력은 물러서지 않으니 주의하라는 취지. 주제 1 – 에이비스 급등 배경 - 에이비스 실적 큰 폭 상회 후 주가 급등, 시총 약 100억 달러 증가 - 공매도 잔고가 많고 유통 물량이 얇아 숏스퀴즈 발생 가능 - 과거 게임스탑 사례처럼 공매도 세력은 자비 없이 청산 압박을 받음 주제 2 – 헤지펀드 구조 비판 - 일부 헤지펀드는 부유층 자금을 운용하며 급격한 손실에 취약 - 펀드 운용 제약상 특정 종목 숏 보유를 요구받는 경우가 있어, 헤르츠 매수 시 에이비스 숏이 헤지 수단으로 쓰임 - 헤지펀드는 장기간 시장 대비 저조한 수익을 기록했으나 리스크 조정 수익을 내세움 주제 3 – 에이비스 주가 흐름 - 에이비스는 실적 발표 전 이미 700~800% 상승한 상태 - 숏스퀴즈로 주가가 최고 545달러까지 상승 - 2월 말 게임스탑 사례와 유사하게 한때 225% 이상 급등 주제 4 – 헤지펀드 프레젠테이션 및 업계 평가 - 헤지펀드 프레젠테이션은 그래프가 화려하지만 실제 수익률은 부진 - 사설 투자(프라이빗) 부문은 평가가치 과열 속 상대적 수혜 가능성 - 워런 버핏도 헤지펀드의 성과 한계를 지적한 바 있음 리스크·조건 - 숏스퀴즈 급등은 단기적이며 되돌림 위험이 큼 - 공매도 세력이 재진입하면 급락 가능 출연자 전망 - 에이비스 단기 급등은 숏 청산에 따른 것으로 본질적 가치 상승과 구분 필요 - 헤지펀드 전반에 대해서는 신중한 시각 유지 (대상 자산 중 직접적인 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음)
다듬은 글
when it comes to avis it's what you get when you get a short interest meeting thin markets yeah i look i think that people don't understand this is a new world there's like melissa lee's p uh excellent documentary there's a whole group of people out there if they see they smell blood in the water of short sellers they show no mercy and are you gonna see that with uh with bed bath for people quite wrong and you'll you take a look at davis and yes it added 10 billion dollars in market cap but these people remember they're insensitive to market cap if they care about market cap they wouldn't take game stop to and they i mean there's obviously david a group of people who have discovered that there are hedge funds representing rich people by the way uh that can be annihilated very quickly there are also hedge funds that are in on on the in on it oh you mean like they're traveling so part of yes travelers that's a nice way to put it yeah it's a communist way actually that uh that do participate as well listen avis you know we started watching yesterday around 10 o'clock we know that um those who owned hertz were short avis right right that was a hedge it was brilliant and then also avis itself had already been up some seven 800 percents had an enormous performance going into the earnings print right so there were those who were simply shorted as a result of saying well uh you know how much better can it get then you got better and then you had that enormous short squeeze which took the stock up to as high as 545.
it was it was gamestop the end of february it was up over 225 at one point well look i mean carl what what happens is you get i don't think people realize that a lot of money is run that's already a technical term but a lot of money managers are given money and they're saying listen we need you to have some shorts so the most logical short was well if you thought hertz was good well you would bet against avis now these funds that have these provisions they say they must have shorts these are the ones where people go to work every day and say uh i wish i were i wish i was an assembly worker dear because i'm going to make more money this year uh well well the hedge funds have underperformed the broader market yet again as i've made the point many times those that have private investments and that has become something quite popular that is probably where they're outperforming if anywhere because of the crazy valuations and that's not the word i'm using i'm hearing it from many others that are taking place in the private market uh they're benefiting from that in terms of the marks but you're right now of course what they will tell you when they underperform year after year after year after year is that they risk adjust so that's what they're doing jim they're risk adjusted well but you look we don't want to buy into their act well iraq is a bogus act it's still a huge business the hedge fund is still an enormous enormous but you can fool a lot of people out of just like a pt bar been around for a long time and it's like 25 great years of creating billionaires and sent to millionaires well they're like look i think that warren buffett has covered that ground pretty close saying that these people can't they cannot perform but i've seen the presentations the presentations are remarkable they have all sorts of really good graphs and you ever seen the presentations whiteboard marketing is the key to that i was i was before i was after one of these presentations guy was in there for a half hour and had like he said where's your deck so and bring it down um and just to a university hey brother deck this is this big i'm pastor saying wow i'm great i'm great i'm great then you get the numbers the numbers suck not only you say numbers are awful so i come in scientifically and i say they asked me said where's your deck i said i'm gonna beat everybody i said well no but what's your strategy i said to win i said well no but what's your plan i said yeah to win i died and i said that w's a w and they kicked me out so fast my head was spinning and they gave all the money to the governor to charge the grass
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