저자: YTFinance진행자 · 외국인
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팔란티어(PLTR)의 잉여현금흐름(FCF) 개선과 상업부문 성장을 근거로 장기 보유 가치가 있다고 주장. 2021년 FCF 약 4.24억달러(마진 28%), 2022년 FCF 5~6억달러 전망, 매출 약 20억달러 전망. 현 주가 약 11.55달러, 9달러 이하 매수 선호. 단기 하락 가능성은 열어두되 2025년까지 보유 시 기회로 제시.
다듬은 글
the latest palantir pltr stock news what analysts currently think of the company what the price targets are for 2022 we're going to be talking about their profitability free cash flows a little bit of their revenues and if this company is a good buying opportunity right now so you can stay up to date on palantir's latest developments so we're going to start off basically talking about palantir's cash flow ramp and this is literally the number one reason why i am personally invested into this company rades for around 11.55 the low end analyst price target for the next 12 months is nine dollars per share the average price consensus among professionals for the next year is fifteen dollars and ninety four cents and the high end a bullish positive price prediction for the stock is twenty five dollars and thirty cents right now around ten analysts currently cover the stock with one analyst saying to buy the stock five analysts saying to hold the company for long term and four of these analysts actually say to sell the stock because palantir technologies is too expensive and you're paying too much of a premium for it now i will go over all three of these views in this video but i want to start off by saying that a lot of investors including kathy wood are selling off their pltr shares and i think this is mainly due to their lack of knowledge of palantir technology's free cash flow ramp they are underestimating the ability for palantir technologies specifically to scale their overall business and more importantly in my opinion their commercial business because palantir's commercial business is accelerating at a fantastic rate which i have been talking about for the last three months when i made the prediction that eventually palantir's commercial revenues will eclipse their overall government revenues and i think i'm going to be right on this particular prediction and by palantir technology's commercial segment increasing and accelerating and rapidly growing this is going to reflect very positively on their overall free cash flows as well as their revenues for instance they're going to improve their free cash flows by leaps and bounds specifically for the full year of 2022 and the full year of 2023 then we can look forward in 2024 to 2025 of palantir technologies actually achieving profitability on a gaap basis right now technically they are profitable on a non-gaap basis but we as investors really want to see the company profitable on a gap basis which could cause the pltr stock price to surge which is why this is a long-term investment that you should at a minimum keep until 2025 or 2026.
but right now i want to hone in on their free cash flows which is what i personally use and analysts use to actually calculate their price targets for the pltr stock to put this into perspective palantir's free cash flows have improved from around a loss of 272 million dollars for the full year of 2020 to around 424.1 million dollars for the full year of 2021 which was a phenomenal increase also the free cash flow margins have increased from a loss of 25 in 2020 to a total of 28 in the full year of 2021 and this phenomenal growth rate for their free cash flows are anticipated to continuously scale all the way through 2022 to 2025.
this not only means that analysts will adjust their price targets for the pltr stock to be much higher and more competitive it also means that the company could achieve profitability much sooner than anticipated so this is all very good news for the pltr stock if you've been watching my channel for a while you already know that we calculated pltr stock price targets for this year using the discounted free cash flow models as well as the la stevens model and depending on our assumptions we got price targets anywhere from seventeen dollars all the way up to thir around eleven dollars now i personally think it's going to be best to buy the pltr stock around or below nine dollars per share if it actually drops that low because the lower that we can buy the stock the more appreciation and gain it could achieve in the future so why wouldn't we want to buy the stock as low as possible we could even dollar cost average down our average cost which would be very beneficial however proper risk management says do not over allocate yourself more than five percent to a particular stock or company because there are a plethora of fantastic companies out there and you really don't want to sacrifice that opportunity cost by just investing into one company you can even see down below we have a plethora of other companies on this dot graph right here each dot represents a particular company and palantir is absolutely in a phenomenal spot they have a perfect amount of height and distance from the y and x axis with the x axis being their 2021 revenue growth year over year and their y axis being their 2021 adjusted free cash flow margin percentage and ideally we would want palantir to follow a growth trajectory on the line that they are already currently on so if i can adjust this graph over here we would want palantir to follow a line sort of like this all across that so they are not only improving on their overall revenue growth rate but they're also improving their overall free cash flow margins which is not only going to increase the overall stock price it also makes them extremely competitive compared to all of these other companies that are currently within this yellow box it still blows my mind that people say palantir didn't have a good full year 2021.
their revenues came in at around 1.5 billion dollars and their full year 2021 growth came in at a percentage of around 41 with very good adjusted free cash flow margins of around 28 so ideally we would want palantir technologies to continue this phenomenal trend for both their revenues and their free cash flows which is going to reflect very positively on their overall stock price but now let's talk about their full year 2022 projections because that is the year we are currently in and let's see how palantir will actually fare well if palantir could sustain the free cash flow margins at a rate of around 25 to 30 percent for the full year of 2022 palantir could bring in anywhere between 500 million to 600 million dollars of free cash flows this year and that would be absolutely insane on top of this their revenues look very impressive for the full year of 2022 which is anticipated to come in at around 2 billion according to professionals so even if they don't even increase their average revenue per customer which is unlikely because i think they will increase their average revenue per customer but we actually want to take this bearish scenario so we're not overly bullish on this company they are still going to have fantastic revenues and free cash flows and by sustaining a free cash flow margin of around 25 to 30 percent we could see palantir increase their year-over-year free cash flows by around 50 in total and that would be absolutely insane also their commercial business is continuously expanding and a palantir has been known to beat and exceed their forecasts for both their adjusted operating margins as well as their revenues so it's very exciting that palantir could see a fantastic boost in their free cash flow margins and their operating margins as more commercial clients come in and they acquire new overall customers which is why the author of this article as well as myself expect palantir's operating margin to approach around 35 by the year end of 2022 which is fantastic news however what should we say to investors that say palantir is trading at a premium and that the stock is relatively expensive well technically they are right in some sense and then they are also wrong in another sense you are not buying palantir technologies based on its current valuation you are buying a growth stock that has a future potential so clearly if you buy now and you wait five years buying now is going to be substantially cheaper than the stock price in the next five years don't trade palantir as a value play right now because its market capitalization to sales ratio for the full year of 2023 is around 9.5 times which is actually not bad because anything below a ps multiple of 10 is relatively good for a growth stock in my opinion and we could anticipate that this could drop even more due to the significant price decreases in quarter 4 of 2021 and as well as the stock price decreases that we could see throughout 2022 but despite this palantir's revenues are still anticipated to increase by around 30 percent this year so for people saying that palantir right now is expensive and you are paying a premium they are technically correct that is a true statement however like any growth stock you're actually paying more money now so you can benefit from it in the future because of the amazing cagr rate for their cash flows as well as their overall revenues which in palantir's case is around 30 which is phenomenal if you can find a company that is growing at a cagr of around or above 30 year-over-year that company is going to do very well long-term as long as they have good management so bearish investors are more than welcome to wait until 2024 and 2025 when palantir reaches profitability to invest but who knows what the stock price would be at that time because i'm looking at the future trajectory of palantir and it looks very positive because palantir's business continues to show fantastic promise for future free cash flows which could ramp up around 50 percent this year while their operating margins are also set to improve so although i understand the logic of looking at palantir stock right now saying that it's not a good stock to buy if you are a growth investor or a long-term aggressive investor this could still be a fantastic company to own overall but with that being said should we buy palantir technologies because the pltr stock price has consistently sunk for the past couple months so where is the bottom when is a good time to buy and what should we make of palantir technologies well the recent pltr stock price pullback is somewhat surprising because they recently partnered with jacob's engineering group which i just did a video on yesterday so while news of this partnership could potentially accelerate palantir's expansion into the infrastructure software services market as the article states investors really weren't that happy with it and the stock price continues to fall but if we look at the pltr stock price chart you can see that the current price that the company is trading at is almost what it dpo'd at which is around ten dollars per share so if you could get palantir technologies below nine dollars it would be very ideal around ten dollars it's like buying the company at dpo because in the past couple of months you can see that the stock price has absolutely plummeted and we really don't know when this is going to stop due to various macroeconomic factors such as interest rates increasing geopolitical tensions between russia and ukraine investors taking their money out of growth stocks and putting it into value stocks other people taking their money out of the stock market and investing into the bond market so right now is a very volatile time for the overall stock market so investors are taking their money out of speculative growth stocks such as palantir technologies and they're investing either into blue chip stocks bonds or just liquidating it and keeping cash so it's no surprise that palantir technologies has taken a large beating from investors in the last couple of months due to various macroeconomic factors however if we look at the company itself it's fundamentally strong they have good revenues their commercial segment is increasing they have fantastic free cash flows and eventually they're going to achieve profitability but we also have to weigh this with the fact that their sales have actually topped expectations from analysts and the overall market so that is good news how they have consistently had revenues beats in their earnings report this is how palantir has actually managed to beat a 30 cagr for the revenue because they actually brought in around a 34 cagr year over year and this allowed them to bring in around 433 million dollars in quarter 4 of 2021 but the best part to me is that this 30 cagr is supposed to go through all the way until 2025 which is ideally when they will reach profitability on a gaap basis so following the recent sell-off for palantir technologies we really don't know where the bottom is the stock technically could fall well below nine dollars per share but with that being said remember to practice good risk management and not over expose yourself to palantir technologies because this is a risky speculative stock and it's a single company so although the pltr stock price has trended downwards it just makes the stock a better buy in my opinion it has intriguing upside potential for long-term investors especially at its current stock price so if you are willing to hold the pltr stock until 2025 or after now could be a good buying opportunity however if you want quick gains or if you don't want to hold on to pltr stock and you can't stomach the volatility of the overall stock market right now this probably is not the stock for you but i would love to hear your thoughts down below comment down below what you think of the pltr stock price and where you think it's headed in the future
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