저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 기술적 약세 조짐: 반도체(AMD·엔비디아·Intel) 랠리 둔화, 나스닥100 고점 근처 롤오버. JP모건·웰스파고 단기 약세 전환, BofA 매도 경고. 대규모 IPO·자금조달(스페이스X, Google·Meta 자금조달, Anthropic·OpenAI 비공개 IPO 신청)이 유동성을 흡수. 스페이스X IPO는 135달러 예정, 배정 기대로 투자자들이 현금을 대기 중이라 배정 탈락 후 단기 조정 가능. 스페이스X 상장 후 약 67% 확률로 반등 랠리, 33% 확률로 고점 형성 후 하락 전개 주장.
다듬은 글
Well, everyone, it's getting a little chilly and a little gloomy. The moat that I built with Jack to protect our ball is starting to fade, and the stock market is rolling a little bit. What do we have to say about this? Well, there are a few reasons for this, and we're going to break down exactly what's going on.
We're also going to break down what my opinion is regarding what kind of marker SpaceX could end up being for this market. Let's talk about everything in context. So, first things first, we have had some technical challenges in the market over the last probably five trading sessions. Not only going back obviously to the shock, the leverage flush out that we saw on Friday, triple leverage margin calls, you name it.
But, we've been noticing for the last four to five trading sessions that stocks like Intel, AMD, and Nvidia have been performing pretty poorly. Even though Intel just got another chip deal with Google, what's happening? Oh, wow, we're not actually seeing Intel move anymore. Beyond that, Nvidia rejects the 227 breakout.
AMD runs to 535, but then loses 500. Marvell gains over 300, joins the S&P 500, drops right back under 300. This is a sign that the hardware rally is beginning to lose its steam. That at this point should be relatively obvious. The problem with that is, if the hardware rally loses steam and a software or other sector rally hasn't begun yet, then we really have nothing to maintain S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 all-time highs.
That's a problem. And that's why this morning in our Alpha report, just as a free example for you, and then we're going to talk about SpaceX here, we said, "What you got to watch for this morning is the potential move of the NASDAQ 100 to 525. We literally wrote down NASDAQ to 520 or 725, but not much more.
725, but not much more. It went up to about 725 and 63 cents. Rolled right over. Why? Because we didn't have Palantir Microsoft expand, so we had no software expansion. AMD and Nvidia couldn't hold. And people aren't coming to buy the dip. Now, why is that happening tactically? Well, obviously we have the SpaceX IPO coming up, but you've also got institutions that are turning bearish over the short term.
You just had JP Morgan turn tactically bearish. Not only did JP Morgan turn tactically bearish, but you had Wells Fargo just about 4 minutes ago turn tactically bearish. And you've got Bank of America issuing a sell warning arguing that people should take profits and sell at these highs. All of those together leading into the vacuum cleaners that we're getting of not only IPOs, but money raises.
Google and Meta raising money. You've got the Anthropic and now OpenAI confidential IPO filings. Everybody's racing to try to raise money during the potential top, if you will. And of course the SpaceX IPO this week. We have a lot of people waiting to see if this market can actually absorb this liquidity.
This is a massive hardware and liquidity test. And hardware so far starting to drop the ball a little bit. Now, let's talk about SpaceX. So, here's the issue with SpaceX. SpaceX is expected obviously to IPO either Thursday or Friday. It's likely going to be Friday because Elon is the meme king, the meme genier I like to say, sort of like engineering the memes.
And the thing about IPOing on a Friday is that you're probably by pricing at 135 going to get a little bit of a pop on the market. And when you get a pop, you're going to have that pricing all weekend long. It's kind of a brilliant strategy, so you get all of the PR that goes into it. So, you get to send your vision to everyone.
Elon Musk has already made his vision very clear in meetings with JP Morgan or announcements and interviews that he's doing. He wants to build data centers in space. He wants to use resources on the moon to help deal with the thermal problems of data centers in space. People think, "Oh, space must be cold.
It's going to be easy to deal with cooling for data centers, right?" Wrong. It's actually substantially harder because there's no air flow in space. And when you don't have air flow in space, you can't get rid of that heating. So, Elon is sending or the the thermal that issues that are created through the usage of chips, right?
So, usually you use these ammonia-based solutions, which are really dangerous for humans. So, you really need problem like Optimus robots to maintain these. Uh and Elon's pitch is, "Hey, we can find all these resources on the moon and we can have these unlimited resources and basically manufacture data centers on space and, you know, 1,000 X the AI data center compute power we have." This is a great vision.
And I'm sure a lot of people are really excited about buying into the vision. But, what I actually think is happening is a lot of people are waiting to see what kind of allocation they're going to get for SpaceX. So, this is what I actually think is happening. So, first of all, when you have exposure to a company like Fidelity or Charles Schwab or whatever you've got an account at JP Morgan, you can get invited to participate in an IPO.
I think Robinhood might be doing this as well. And the way it works is you give them an indication of interest. So, you say, "Hey, I'd like to buy a million shares worth of SpaceX. Then the broker says, "Okay, sounds good. We got your request." Now, you're sitting on pins and needles waiting to get your $1 million allocation.
But the problem is you don't know if you're going to get the million dollar allocation. If you don't get the million dollar allocation, you might want to go buy the dip on hardware and other stocks. Okay? Well, what if you do get the allocation? Well, you probably want to buy at 135 because they're purposefully keeping the float on the stock low to try to get that day one pump.
Ah, so where does that leave us? Well, it obviously leaves us with releasing our app update. It's going to come out on Thursday, which means we are going to expire the coupon in accordance with the release of our app updates. So, stay tuned for our big app update on Thursday. I'm pretty excited about that.
Uh you can learn more about that over at meetkevin.com. And remember, you get that alpha report. Even though I'm on vacation right now with the kiddo, we still send our alpha report. And I think we're doing a great job because we're setting up the perfect warnings for what traders should be looking for in the short, medium, and long term.
And we just called the top. I would argue almost perfectly. Now, you want to join that, check it out meetkevin.com. What I want you to know about SpaceX though is this. If you think you're going to get a SpaceX allocation because every Joe Blow thinks they're going to get a SpaceX allocation, then what are you going to do?
You're not going to buy the dip. And by not buying the dip, you're not supporting the hardware rally we've had. And that's okay. I'm not It's not It's not your job to support the rally. But if collectively millions of investors are waiting for an allocation and they're collectively using all their dry powder for this potential allocation that they're not going to get.
Then, we end up with, yes, a tactical short-term bear market between now and [clears throat] when people realize they don't get the allocation. Hopefully, SpaceX does well. I think there's a greater chance that SpaceX does well. It probably pops over the 135 IPO price. If I was going to get allocations at 135, I'd probably buy it.
I already have exposure to SpaceX, so it doesn't matter. But, I'm just saying, I'd probably buy it because I would guess it would pop. Uh and usually you have to hold it for about 15 days, and then you could turn around and flip it. Now, there is a risk that and I think this is a lower chance, but I'd put this at about 33.
33% repeating, of course, chance that SpaceX ends up marking a top. That SpaceX IPOs at 135, it pops to like 170, and then it just bleeds. It bleeds down week after week after week. The OpenAI IPO comes, it bleeds down. Anthropic comes, it bleeds down. And people don't buy the hardware dip because things are bleeding down.
That's not good because the only thing keeping us out of a recession right now is the stock market being propped up. So, we don't want that. I think there's about a 33% chance of that. I would say there's a greater chance that this actually unlocks a buying opportunity where so many people think that they're getting a SpaceX allocation that they're keeping their dry powder dry.
They're not going to end up getting it. After SpaceX IPOs, so come Friday or Monday, this is what I think is a 67% chance. People like, "Ah, I wanted a million dollars worth of shares. They only gave me a $2,000 allocation." And then people are going to be like, "Wow, cool. I bought, you know, my $2,000 worth." And then it turned into $2,400.
And people are going to be "Ah, okay. Well, I guess I'll take the other money that I have and I'll go back to buying the dip on quality names." And so, I think with a 67% chance that's the kind of rally we see come back after the SpaceX IPO. Because everybody's sitting around waiting for their freaking allocation and that's actually creating a buying opportunity in the market right now, especially when the suits are all going bearish.
I always like to think, "Hey, if the suits are telling you it's the top, sell." Probably is a buying opportunity. I I just I'm maybe I'm too jaded or cynical. I think there are plenty of really good opportunities out there. I'm a big fan of buying the dip on great names right now and great value right now.
You okay, buddy? I'm just sitting down and letting the wind hit me. Yeah? Yeah? You just getting smacked around? Hurry up. HOLD ON. SILLY GUY. ALL RIGHT, I'M GOING TO GET BACK IN THERE, but I wanted to just step aside for a moment and chat about that. Give you an update on my thoughts here. Go to meetkevin.com.
Uh you can see what I personally think is a great deal. Uh that doesn't mean things are going to go straight up for long-term buys. It's never the case. But uh but I'm actually optimistic that once people realize they're not getting all these allocations, the market's just going to go to new highs again uh with with, you know, at least a 67% chance.
So, I'm pretty excited about that. We'll see We'll see what happens though. I'll keep you updated and I'll be watching and researching and I'll keep bringing data to you. .
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