Why You Shouldn't Buy Anything Right NOW! | Jeremy Grantham's Advice

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결론: 그랜섬은 현재 주식시장이 초거품 상태이며 펀더멘털 악화로 추가 하락(최소 50% 폭락 가능성)이 임박했다고 경고한다. [핵심 주장과 근거] 그랜섬은 과도한 저금리·유동성이 만든 투기와 높은 밸류에이션이, 경기·금융 여건 악화와 만나면 거품이 붕괴한다고 본다. [근거 수치] 쉴러 PER은 9월 초 29.9로 1929년 대공황 직전 수준과 거의 같고, 닷컴 버블과 현재 상승장을 제외하면 1870년대 이후 가장 높다. [펀더멘털 악화 요인] 코로나(중국), 유럽 전쟁, 식량·에너지 문제, 긴축 재정 등으로 1월 전망보다 미래가 훨씬 암울하다고 주장한다. [이익 전망] Morgan Stanley의 Mike Wilson은 2023년 S&P500 주당순이익 전망을 10% 낮췄다. [시장 심리] 투자자 심리가 나빠졌지만 아직 패닉성 투매(항복, capitulation)는 나타나지 않았다. 항복은 장기 저점 전에 흔히 나타난다고 한다. JP Morgan은 최근 매도가 체계적이며 불안한 변동성은 없었다고 분석했다. [리스크/조건] 그랜섬은 단기 등락보다 향후 수년간 성과를 본다. 최악은 아직 오지 않았다는 입장이며, 구체적 하락 시점·목표치는 제시하지 않았다. [종목별 언급] 개별 종목 언급은 없고 S&P500 및 미국 주식시장 전반에 대한 하락 경고다. [출연자 전망] 그랜섬 본인은 전반적 하락을 경고하며 최소 50% 폭락 가능성을 언급했다. 다만 조건부 경고이며 기간은 명시되지 않았다.

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01. why you shouldn't buy anything right now Jeremy grantham's advice Prophecies of Doom are never in short supply but they seem more common and easier to believe when evidence of Doom accumulates and becomes difficult to ignore it's no surprise then that one widely respected veteran investment manager's warning about a Super Bubble is causing particular concern now with the stock market experiencing one of its worst declines in more than a decade and embarking on a new leg down after a recovery earlier this summer Jeremy Grantham the co-founder of the fund management firm GMO he's the G has cautioned that speculation and a desire for risk have driven stock prices to height seen only a few times in the last century hello everyone and welcome to another video on our channel in today's video we're going to discuss why you shouldn't buy anything right now Jeremy grantham's advice so stay tuned to find out now let's start our video the stock market successes fed by the federal reserves and other central banks unusually lacks monetary policies sent interest rates plummeting over a decade and flooded the global economy with Easy Money accessible for speculation Grantham stated in his article that what makes super bubbles ripe for busting is when the overvaluation caused by such excesses collides with a deterioration in economic and financial conditions that in his judgment is about to happen if it hasn't already the stock market in the United States remains highly expensive and a spike in inflation like the one this year has always damaged price earnings multiples albeit more slowly than usual this time he wrote however the fundamentals have begun to deteriorate dramatically and unexpectedly with covid in China the war in Europe food and energy problems unprecedented fiscal tightening and other factors the future is far Grimmer than predicted in January each cycle is unique yet every historical parallel indicates that the worst is yet to come he didn't give a specific estimate but he did say that all Super Bowl contain stock market drops of at least 50 percent Bloomberg News the financial times the New York Post Fortune market watch CNBC and other media sources far from Africa India Australia in the Middle East covered grantham's remarks extensively the coverage was far from alarmist there was a lot of on the one hand on the other but it lacked the kind of unequivocal repudiation that could be anticipated to accompany such a bold Warren during more lucrative Market action the respect accorded to grantham's forecast that the Market's poor performance this year is only the beginning of a deep and prolonged downturn is due in part to the fact that Grantham has had a long distinguished career that has been profitable for him and for investors whose money his firm has managed this is not the first time he has expressed a strong belief that we are in a Super Bubble and that its deflation is imminent but he is no Perpetual bear or crackpot gold buck in previous warnings about the dangerous speculation he witnessed on Wall Street he acknowledged that the bubble that was forming likely had more room to inflate if you're liking this content so far please consider subscribing and liking the video now let's continue some doomsdayers take advantage of people's gullibility and anxiety while the iron is hot to gain attention and possibly Financial reward others have the best of intentions Grantham Falls squarely into the second camp with compelling grounds to believe he's correct one that despite an almost 20 dropped the Benchmark S P 500 Index remains significantly expensive according to the shriller price earning ratio which Compares share prices to 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings the ratio was 29.9 in early September virtually exactly where it was when the market began its crash in 1929 and greater than at any time since the 1870s except for the.com boom and the current Bull Run meanwhile economic growth and earnings prospects continue to deteriorate as the FED raises interest rates to battle inflation Mike Wilson a Morgan Stanley strategist who has been uncannily correct in forecasting the market this year recently cut his projection for S P 500 earnings per share in 2023 by 10 another source of concern is wall Street's increasingly expressed the Judgment that market sentiment has reached a sour spot the inverse of a sweet spot investors are repeating their selling as financial and economic conditions worsen they appear to be coming around to the idea that the FED is serious about hiking rates even if the economic growth and investment returns offer they have not however begun to exhibit the panic and indiscriminate desperate selling that indicates capitulation essentially a general acceptance that the profits of Doom are correct such capitulation frequently precedes long-term Market bottom JP Morgan noted the systematic character of the recent sell-off and the Striking absence of anxious turbulent trading when you begin getting calls from relatives about which assets to sell in a letter to clients unlike many of his Rivals Grantham is concerned with how investments will perform over the next few years rather than this quarter or tomorrow's trading session well that's all for today's video tell us in the comments section how this one was I hope that you found this video interesting if you want to see more videos like this please consider subscribing for more and don't forget to provide us with your valuable feedback we'll see you in the following video with some more notable celebrities facts and stories and until then stay tuned