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initial jobless claims coming in just as expected join us right now to talk about the data the markets the latest fed commentary maybe what we're going to hear out of Jackson Hall Jeremy seagull professor aarden School of Business also Chief Economist at Wisdom Tree good morning to you sir good morning what do you think what do you think of the jobless claims number what do you think of this sort of larger you know revision going back a year does it matter let me try to explain where where I have trouble with with fed policy um the FED has stated that its long-term fed funds rates 2.8% when risks are balanced uh now taking a look ahead six months if I were to ask you what's more likely a flare up of inflation or a weakening job market now we we got decent numbers certainly today but between those two I say it's Balan maybe even more towards a weakening job market well then why are we at the most restrictive monetary policy in over half a century if we have almost a risk balanced look going forward now a lot of people came back to me when I was you know really agitated a couple weeks ago they said you wanted 50 basis points and then you switch years I said I said they said oh it's not 2.8% you know they put that down but it's really much higher you know uh yeah you know the economy is doing well it's 5.3 right now econom is doing pretty well you know maybe maybe that neutral rate is 4.8% so they only need really a a couple of cuts to get to that particular level well you know if the neutral rate for fed funds is 4.8 instead of 5.3 then why is the 10year bond at 3.8 if you go through history normally the 10-year bond is about a 100 or more basis point above the neutral fed funds rate which would put it at 5.8 wow not at 3.8 right um something is sort of out of kilter here so what's the answer then meaning what would you do you know I think too slow I think I think they're taking on risks they don't have to take if they would move it down faster now I know that you know Steve said it's 2550 25 I mean if they go 5050 if they'd get back down towards that three grade I actually think it's three and a half a little bit higher than what they said but the faster they get down the lower the probability that they're going to have a recession and a significant slowdown in the economy and that's basically I would like to explain what with risk nearly balanced while they're why are they're twice as high as they should be okay let me ask you a different question then given what you know given what you want them to do and what you think that they may do how are you thinking about buying or not equities in this market I think equities are you know they're and basically you're you're at 21 times forward earnings you know it's it's S&P is within 1% of an all-time high 21 you know I've often said 20 is equilibrium so it's a little high now if you take out uh you know the mag 7 you're at 1718 they look more attractive uh I I don't see I don't see the small and value stocks moving until the FED moves um and maybe more convincingly I think that cherp is definitely going to open up a a cut tomorrow in his speech he will not specify how much it'll be they still have four weeks of data coming certainly hope it's it's larger rather than smaller uh to get back to where I think that neutral rate is and then Professor we keep asking the same question part because the DNC convention just happened or is happening right now and they are um the Republicans had their convention a couple weeks ago do you think that that the market is saying anything about which way uh the White House is going to go in November well I I you know I think that if the Dems get all three branches of of the government presidency House and Senate um then it's more likely that Senator Harris's tax plan and we all know that all taxes need to be renegotiated on December 31st of 2025 many of them are likely to be implemented if the Republicans can hold either the house or more likely the Senate and looks like that could be very very close then basically you know Harris's plans uh I wouldn't say are DOA but uh they're much less likely the government still needs to renegotiate everything at the end of next year the composition of the Congress as well as the presidency is really important I don't think the market is yet focused on a 28% potential corporate tax rate and some of the other Capital taxes that Harris is proposing
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