저자: ErdemKaynar · 외국인
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미국 증시 버블 우려를 다루며, 버핏지표·CAPE·배당수익률이 역사적 고점 수준이라 지적. 다만 지표만으로 붕괴를 단정할 수 없고 하락 촉매(블랙스완, 경기침체, AI 투자 대비 수익 괴리, 장기금리 급등, 트럼프 이슈, 연준 독립성 훼손)가 필요하다고 봄. 단기 하락 가능성은 낮다는 입장이며, 달러 약세와 금리인하가 증시 상승 요인. 연준 의장 교체 후 정치화 리스크를 가장 구체적인 단기 음(陰) 시나리오로 제시하나 하락 시 매수 기회로 봄. 암호화폐 플랫폼 협찬 포함.
다듬은 글
Is a bubble forming in the US stock markets? Should we be worried, or will the rise continue? What could trigger a potential collapse ? Let's discuss the US stock markets this week, the current situation, and possible scenarios. Bitlo offers a crypto asset platform . Bitlo is your yield, Bitlo. In May, I published a video with the title "Trump's Plan" .
In that video, we discussed in detail the state of the US government, what Trump wants, why he does what he does, and how these things will affect the market . Actually, everything that's happening right now is a reflection of what we talked about in that video. The US is under a high debt burden, and this debt is increasing every day.
In fact, the debt-to- growth ratio is over 100%. Is this sustainable? We talked at length in the video I mentioned . I do n't want to repeat myself. Actually, yes, this debt is sustainable, but is it a risk? Definitely. Even putting everything else aside, the US would be a much stronger country if it didn't have to pay such high interest rates on its debt .
They could spend more on defense or healthcare . So how do you fight debt? Government spending can be reduced. Government revenues can be increased. So taxes can be raised. For example, customs duties. If possible, the value of the borrowed asset can be reduced. For example, imagine you owe someone money in gold.
The decrease in the value of gold makes it easier for you to pay off your debt. So, what does the US borrow from? In dollars. Therefore, the depreciation of the dollar is currently in the US's interest, and Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants this . In other ways, the current account deficit can be reduced.
They even try to give more if possible. Economic growth is increased, etc. As I said, we discussed these details in the video of Trump's plan. I do n't want to repeat myself. Currently, the US debt crisis is supporting the rise of almost everything priced in the dollar. It's not the only reason, but it's definitely one of the factors influencing the direction of the wind.
The S&P 500, meanwhile, had its best September in 15 years and continues to reach new highs. Could a bubble be forming in the US stock markets ? When we examine Warren Buffet's famous ratio, look, this is from before the 2020.com bubble. Then the markets collapsed. This is before the 2008 crisis. Then the markets collapsed.
Now, that rate is at an unprecedented high of 220 . Does this mean we should expect another market crash ? No. Frankly, I don't think using this metric is healthy in today's world . This ratio is obtained by dividing the total market value of all publicly traded stocks by the gross domestic product of the United States .
This process would be very useful in a closed economy. But a very large portion of the revenue of US companies comes from outside the US, and this share is increasing every year. Therefore, as I said, I don't find it healthy to try to understand company valuations by looking at the US domestic economy .
So what should we look at then? For example, we can check the dividend rates distributed by companies. Currently, the S&P 500's dividend yield is at 1.16%. The S&P 500 has only experienced such a low dividend yield once in its history. That's also a DATG balloon. So right now, there's a ratio between the dividends companies distribute and their valuations that's only been seen once in history .
We can look at another CP ratio. This ratio is often used to determine whether markets are cheap or expensive . In Turkish, we can call it a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio . Because this metric uses inflation-adjusted earnings from the last 10 years. When we look at this rate, we are at the 40 level.
This level has only been seen once in the history of US stock markets. Guess when? DATC is in the bubble again. We also see that while dispensation is high in the S&P 500, correlation and volatility are low. Such discrepancies rightly raise the question of whether we are in the calm before the storm.
So it 's no coincidence that people are debating whether the US stock markets are forming a bubble. There are many metrics similar to the Datkan bubble. Even Jeff Bezowski, one of the biggest investors in artificial intelligence, recently described AI as an industrial bubble in an interview. We'll get into the details of this conversation, but first let 's talk about why US stock markets are rising.
Actually, the themes have been the same for a long time. One, of course, is artificial intelligence. The trend continues with full force on this side. Open AI, which was valued at $28 billion 2.5 years ago, is now valued at $500 billion. Chat GPT reached $1 billion in monthly revenue, which, to my knowledge, no other company in history has achieved so quickly .
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta. These four companies said they will invest nearly $850 billion in Kapex over the next two years . And a very large portion of this will be dedicated to artificial intelligence . Among them, the company planning the highest investment expenditure, at $275 billion, is Jeff Bezos' Amazon, which we just saw.
As a result, investments remain strong. But the main question is, will these investments yield as strong returns as expected? Or, more importantly, will it happen as quickly as expected? The second factor supporting the rise is strong corporate earnings. US companies have been reporting better-than-expected results for some time now.
In particular, we have seen double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters. We went through a period where companies were really doing well. This, naturally, helped to increase share prices . 3. Interest rate cuts. While the US economy is performing strongly and corporate profits are growing in double digits, the Fed has also begun cutting interest rates.
In this case, it supported the index in an upward direction. Many other factors, both large and small, could be mentioned, but we can say that these three factors are fundamentally responsible for the rise in US stock markets . So, to summarize, are US stock markets expensive? Yes, it's expensive. So what does it mean for a stock market to be expensive or cheap ?
Does being expensive mean it will fall, and being cheap mean it will rise ? He won't come. For a stock or index, periods of low or high prices can continue for years. Imagine a woodshed where people keep bringing in firewood . Does having a lot of wood mean the woodshed will burn down? He won't come.
The abundance of wood simply determines how large a fire can grow if one breaks out. Wood itself is not a cause of fire. The same goes for high prices. An index or stock doesn't fall simply because it's expensive. The price of financial products, whether cheap or expensive, affects their sensitivity to economic developments.
Notice I'm not saying it determines, I'm saying it influences. Because the only thing that determines sensitivity isn't just whether something is cheap or expensive. In conclusion, even if US stock markets have formed a bubble, which there are indications pointing in that direction, this alone does not necessarily mean that US stock markets will fall.
If a decline is going to happen, a catalyst is needed to initiate that decline . So, is there such a catalyst on the horizon ? What could this catalyst be ? One could certainly be a black bird. So it's an unexpected development, which is always a possibility. Second, a major economic crisis, either inflationary or possibly deflationary .
Such a crisis has been a possibility for quite some time, but it's not the subject of today's discussion. There is no concrete data to suggest that such a large-scale crisis will emerge in the short term . At least not to my knowledge. So yes, there is a journey towards such a crisis, but I don't think we're nearing the end of that journey .
3. I mentioned that significant investments are being made in artificial intelligence, but the results might be as powerful or, more importantly, as fast as expected; this is where we could encounter problems. There may be a disconnect between investments and returns. With the increasing number of company compilations, the rumors of an AI bubble may become louder, and the market may become concerned.
But this is n't a matter for the short term either. Understanding something like this is n't something that will happen overnight. 4. A rapid rise in long-term bond yields, triggering a sell-off in US stock markets. The US government is aware of such a risk and has taken precautions. And they continue to buy.
They are easing banking regulations to allow banks to buy more bonds . They are spreading out bond issuances over a short period, etc. The law known as the Genius Act addresses this very problem. If long-term bond yields are a problem, then they need to increase demand for their bonds. At this point, an even more outrageous solution came to their minds.
Stablecoins. Because these coins are required to hold bonds in their vaults equivalent to their value . They thought that if they increased demand for stablecoins, they would create additional demand for their bonds from all over the world . That's why they called it the Genius Act. Speaking of stablecoins, I have two pieces of news from Bitlo, the sponsor of this video.
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You can find links to my staking, portfolio, and Bitlo detailed information in the description. Now, moving on, we discussed how the US government is trying to keep long-term bond yields under control with measures like Gus EG. Will these measures work ? Yes, it helps. We know that the US has been able to keep bond yields under control for many years with measures that are not as comprehensive as these .
Could a potential market crash be triggered by bond yields? Of course, I can't say it's impossible, but it's unlikely. For this to happen, there needs to be a new development outside of the current circumstances. There will be a new development . Bond yields rise sharply, triggering a sell-off in the market.
This is possible, but it largely falls under the category of "black sheep" as described in point 1 . 5. Trump himself. We are probably facing the most unpredictable president in US history. We have seen before how devastating an impact customs tariffs can have. While customs tariffs seem to have fallen off the agenda, they are still concretely on the table.
Peace has not been achieved on that side. The duration is only extended through ceasefires. At some point, tariffs will come up again, or Trump might negatively impact the agenda with completely different issues. But the market has now understood Trump's nature. He never actually does what he claims to do, despite his blustering and ranting.
Therefore, I think it's unlikely to have as devastating an impact as the initial tariffs, and he wouldn't want that either. At this stage, a significant drop in the stock market would not be in Trump's best interest . That won't work, this won't work. So where will this decline come from? First of all, I'm not saying it's impossible.
It could be any of the things I've listed . That's why I considered it. But I don't see the chances as strong, at least in the short term . I'm also not saying there will necessarily be a sharp drop that we could call a collapse . As in the case of the timber yard, the market can continue with high collection rates for many years.
In fact, the compilations could be much higher. As long as there is no fire, those transporting wood will continue to do so . What I'm researching here is where a short-term downturn might come from, if one is going to happen. Now let's summarize the general situation. Next, I will try to explain the possibility that I consider most likely.
US companies have been reporting good results for some time now. The wave of artificial intelligence seems to both strengthen future expectations and already be delivering productivity gains. This keeps risk appetite alive. The decline in the value of the dollar is having a positive effect on everything priced in dollars .
It also increases the competitive advantage of US companies. Just as our exporting companies want the Turkish Lira to depreciate, their companies welcome the depreciation of the dollar . In this positive environment, the Fed is also cutting interest rates, which is expected to accelerate interest rate cuts in the post-Pavel era.
Another detail that isn't often discussed is that when we look at some of the metrics provided by the Fed, it appears we may be nearing the end of the balance sheet reduction process. The balance sheet reduction will probably end sometime this year, or perhaps even at the next meeting . This is another catalyst that will boost the market.
In conclusion, the US economy is in good shape. Companies have strong profits and a powerful catalyst that creates future expectations, such as artificial intelligence . In addition to all this, they are in the process of cutting interest rates, and in the future, after Fed Chairman Pavel's change of office, interest rate cuts are expected to accelerate and monetary expansion is expected to increase.
Trump wants to win back the voters. He probably made his most market-disrupting moves first. It is now likely that we will see a more market-friendly president. Given all these factors, it's no surprise that US stock markets have risen so strongly. However, compilations have indeed begun to tend towards exaggeration.
It shows many metric similarities with the Datkan bubble. In his speech, Jeff Bezos says that investors are pouring billions of dollars into companies that were founded with only six people and have no products yet . So we are seeing formations similar to the DATC bubble not only in terms of metrics but also in real life .
During the DATC bubble, technology companies sprung up like mushrooms and received very large amounts of investment despite having no products to offer. As a result, almost all of these companies went bankrupt, plunging the market into a historic decline. My personal opinion is that yes, a bubble is forming in the US stock markets, but although the metrics show similarities, I don't think this has yet turned into a frenzy like the Datkan bubble.
Unless a black hole forms, under normal circumstances I don't see a very bad projection when I look at the horizon. Interest rate cuts will continue, and may even accelerate. There is no monetary tightening in sight. On the contrary, it seems like money will become more abundant. The decline in the value of the dollar is critically important for Trump's plan .
Yes, we will feel the negative effects of tariffs more over time, and they will create inflationary pressures. However, a slight increase in inflation would be beneficial for the US at this stage . A certain amount of high inflation would be beneficial for them in reducing the debt-to-growth ratio, as it would support growth .
The most tangible risk I see in the short term is who will replace Powell. If someone as reasonable as Waller comes along, then there's no problem. But if Trump appoints someone very close to him without merit, the Fed could suffer a serious loss of confidence . The theme of a politicized Fed comes to the forefront, and this could trigger a sell-off in the market .
Furthermore, this development could even cause long-term bond yields, which are currently under control, to spiral out of control, in which case the decline would deepen even further. In the short term, this appears to be the most concrete negative scenario. But even if this scenario plays out, I think dips will present buying opportunities.
We experienced a similar situation ourselves. Appointing someone close to the government to head the Central Bank , and irrational reductions in interest rates . Although all of this initially led to selling pressure on the market, the Istanbul Stock Exchange subsequently experienced a historic surge.
Our situation is certainly not the same as America's. The circumstances are very different, but similar actions lead to similar trends. However, we experienced all of this at a time when our stocks were trading at a very low market capitalization . As for the US, given how high the consolidation figures are, if they experience such a confidence problem, even if I think the declines will present buying opportunities, it's not easy to predict how severe they will be .
If the negative scenario plays out, and Trump appoints someone close to him to head the Fed instead of someone acceptable, then we could see a new Arthur Burns case. Arthur Burns served as the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1970 to 1978 . He is famous for fulfilling the requests of the then-US President Nixon .
During his term, he kept interest rates irrationally low, which forced him to offer the highest interest rates in US history in the 1980s . Just like we've been offering high interest rates for a while now. What was the result? Similar actions led to similar trends . And with that, we've come to the end of another video.
I have tried to analyze the current state of the US stock markets , the debates about whether it is a bubble or not, and possible scenarios for you. I hope this content has been helpful. If you'd like to help me reach more people, you can support me by liking the video and leaving a comment. Thank you in advance .
To discover our sponsor Bitlo, the registration link and details are in the description. I wish everyone a healthy and happy week. See you in the next video. Bitlo launched its crypto asset platform.
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