저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
연준은 관세 영향과 실업률 상승 사이에서 불확실성이 크고 지켜보자는 입장. 실업률은 36개월·12개월 이동평균 상회로 경기침체 신호. 2s10s 장단기 금리차는 역전 해소 후 12개월 평균이 플러스로 전환되어 과거 침체 신호. 연준 금리인하(100bp) 중에도 장기금리는 상승하는 이례적 흐름이며, 경기 약화 시 장기금리 상승 가능성을 주장. 이자비용 부담(일 40억달러)으로 수익률곡선 통제 같은 특이 정책 가능성 언급. 신용시장에서는 하이일드 중 CCC 금리 상승, BB-CCC 스프레드가 200일선 상회로 우려.
다듬은 글
stocks going into the meeting, well into the statement, they were pretty positive. They're mixed now, but the NASDAQ being negative is really an alphabet problem today. There was an issue momentarily, at least for a little bit, with a comment that the president made about not being open to reducing the 145% tariffs on China.
We moved a little bit beyond that as we now know that talks will begin. Welcome to Closing Bell, everybody. I'm Scott Wapner live from Post9 at the New York Stock Exchange as always. Joining me today in the house here on Wall Street is Jeffrey Gunlock. He's the CEO, CIO, and founder of Double Line Capital.
It's nice to have you in our house for a change. Welcome. It's good to be here again. I haven't been to the stock exchange. Well, I was here yesterday for a client meeting, but it's been years. Well, it it's good to have you here. Um, your reaction first and foremost to what we just heard. I I think the headline really is is obvious today and it is this tension that may exist between the two mandates that the Fed has.
Yeah. And we've talked about that uh last couple of times that we've met on Fed Day. I think the the word of the day in the press conference is uncertainty. I mean he said it's too too early to know, don't think we know phrases like that all the time. So I can't really blame him. I mean there's we are in sort of uncharted waters with we don't know what the tariffs are going to do to inflation.
There is pressure a little bit on rising unemployment rate which I'll talk about in a little bit but uh I really felt he did everything but invoke the hypocratic oath regarding the Fed funds rate. Above all do no harm right because he's he says we're in a good place over and over again over and over.
He he said that multiple times in in exactly those words or uh you know versions of Yeah. But he doesn't he refuses to answer and I can't blame him for this either questions of what would the unemployment have to go to, which one's going to be a problem first and so forth. So he says wait and see. We're in a good place.
We can wait and see. But I think that it's a little bit of uncertainty. I'm surprised the market didn't act worse on on the stock market because I because it sounds to me like we're back in Mr. Magu land where we're in the car driving around and he admits that there's risks, higher inflation, higher unemployment rate.
But he says, "I'm not going to I and I I can't explain to you what we need to see to get concerned about one side of the mandate or the other. So, we're just going to wait and see which tree we bump into." So, I feel like we're going to bump into either an a tariff inflation tree. we're going to bump into a rising unemployment tree and that will affect what happens to the Fed funds rate down the line.
But the unemployment rate is rising. I mean, it's above its 36-month moving average. Uh, and that goes along with recession. It's also uh the unemployment rate is is also uh above its 12-month moving average on and the 12-month moving average is is is important too. but also the twos 10 the yield curve which was inverted for so long and now it's de-inverted which usually puts us on watch for economic problems but the 12 month moving average of the 2's 10 is now positive which has never happened without a recession after a period of inversion going back to 1980.
So we're watching that very very carefully to see what happens in unemployment picture. Um but uh the the game plan is still largely the same for us. We've been in a trading range for interest rates across the yield curve for quite a while now. I mean, Powell himself said the 10 years where it was 2 and a half years ago.
And and it's true that the long end of the curve is performing unusually for what's been something of a Fed easing cycle. You know, we've had 100 basis points of cuts and yet long rates are up. Um that doesn't happen typically. And this, I think, continues to feed into my thesis that as as the economy weakens, long-term interest rates could very well be going up.
And that's very different from mo most people's experience, even if you have 40 years of experience, like I do. Most people say when there's a recession, the dollar goes up and and uh interest rates go down. But actually, the opposite has happened this time. And I don't think that that's I don't think that that's just a coincidence or a one-off.
But I think that's going to continue because the interest expense on the debt, which we always talk about, is just horrifically bad. And it's it's going to $4 billion a day. And I don't know what we're going to do uh to handle that other than maybe we're going to talk about some really exotic policies might have to be brought in if if long-term interest rates do not drop uh or even rise in the face of economic weakness.
We might have to do yield curve control, which we did in the 1940s and early 50s. They did it in Japan for a very long long time. We'll we'll see what happens. But we we continue to be and I think when I talk to our big clients, they say everyone says what you're saying that we want to be more liquid.
We want to be up in credit. We don't want to be in the long end. We think the curve is going to steepen. And unusually, usually when you have that kind of a consensus, you're at a turning point, but it's not happening. The these trades continue to work. Up up up in quality is certainly working. lower quality junk bonds than triple C's are now up very significantly in yield and the yield spread between double B the highest quality of high yield and triple C is above its 200 day moving average which is a really bad thought.
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