Jeremy Grantham: "A Horrible Economic Crisis IS HERE"

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그랜덤은 주식·채권·부동산·암호화폐 전반이 과대평가된 '슈퍼 버블' 상태라고 주장하며, 그 원인으로 과도한 통화완화, 저금리, 투기 심리, 중앙은행의 '풋(fed put)' 기대를 든다. 근거로 S&P500 CAPE 35 이상(장기평균 약 16), 미국 10년물 금리 1% 미만 장기화, 2019년 이후 주택가격 40% 이상 상승, 비트코인의 급등을 제시한다. 글로벌 부채가 약 300조 달러(GDP의 약 350%)로 늘어난 점도 시한폭탄으로 지목한다. 과거 닷컴버블·2008 주택버블 사례를 들어 경고한다.

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01. Jeremy Grantham a well-known investor who predicted past Market crashes is warning us about what he calls a Super Bubble what does this mean for us why are stocks bonds real estate and cryptocurrencies all so overpriced right now how did we end up with such high prices everywhere grantom concerned that these inflated prices could lead to a big financial crisis why are stocks and bonds so expensive with all these Bubbles getting bigger what could make them burst and what should we watch for grantom warnings are based on previous Financial crashes so could we be facing another one soon well to know all about this you have to stay tuned till the end the global economy is at a Tipping Point according to Jeremy grantom a renowned investor and co-founder of the asset management firm GMO grantom has earned a reputation for his ability to predict Major Market crashes having accurately forecasted the dotom bubble burst in 2000 and the housing bubble collapse in 2008 now he warns of another impending crisis one that could have far-reaching consequences for economies worldwide grantom describes the current situation as a Super Bubble a term he uses to highlight the unprecedented levels of asset overevaluation across various markets a Super Bubble refers to a situation where multiple asset classes stocks bonds real estate are all significantly overpriced grantom believes that the current Super Bubble which he uses the fourth in the last 100 years is largely driven by excessive monetary stimulus low interest rates and a surge in speculative Behavior among investors grantom concerns about the current Super Bubble are deeply rooted in the extraordinary levels of overvaluation seen across various financial markets to grasp the full scope of the problem we must delve into some crucial figures that highlight just how inflated these markets have become the US Stock Market has witnessed an impressive bull run over the past decade from its low in 2009 the S&P 500 Index surged more than 400% to its peak in 2021 however as of 2024 the S&P 500 is trading at a cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio of over 35 this is significantly higher than its long-term average of around 16 the cape ratio which adjusts for inflation and Smooths out earnings over a decade is a critical indicator of Market valuation historically a cape ratio above 30 has often preceded periods of poor returns or Market crashes the current elevated level suggest that the market might be due for a sign significant correction as such overvaluation has historically been unsustainable the bond market especially in the US and Europe has also reach on precedented Levels by 2023 the global bond market was valued at approximately $133 trillion during 20120 the amount of negative yielding debt pequ at $18 trillion reflecting a situation where investors were willing to pay for the safety of holding government bonds rather than seeking Returns the yield on us 10-year treasury bonds has been historically low frequently falling below 1% for extended periods these low yields indicate that investors are accepting minimal returns for perceived safety which is not a sustainable long-term scenario such extreme conditions in the bond market often signal overvaluation and a potential future adjustment the real estate sector has not been immune to these inflationary pressures in the United States home prices have skyrocketed by over 40% since 2019 with a medium price of home passing $400,000 as of 2024 this sharp increase is largely driven by persistently low interest rates and a supply of shortage in the housing market the result has been a surge in housing costs raising concerns about affordability and the risk of a market correction the rapid appreciation in home prices Echoes the characteristics of other asset bubbles where prices rise far beyond fundamental values the rise of cryptocurrencies particularly Bitcoin has added another layer to the speculative friend bitcoin's price for instance surged from approximately $77,000 in early 2020 to over 60,000 by the end of 20121 a staggering nearly 800% increase although the cryptocurrency market has experienced fluctuations the overall trend highlights a high level of speculative activity the total market cap of cryptocurrencies reached nearly $3 trillion at its peak in late 2021 further emphasizing the extent of the speculative bubble in digital assets these figures collectively illustrate the significant overvaluation present in today's financial markets grantom warning about the current Super Bubble is grounded in historical precedent high levels of overvaluation often lead to significant Market Corrections the inflated asset prices across stocks bonds real estate and cryptocurrencies suggest that the market conditions are right for a potential downturn central banks have played a pivotal role in inflating the Super Bubble following the 2008 financial crisis central banks globally implemented aggressive monetary policies to stimulate economic growth these measures included lowering interest rates to near zero levels and engaging in large- scale asset purchases known as quantitative easing between 2008 and 2022 the federal reserve's balance sheet expanded dramatically from under $1 trillion to nearly 9 trillion this expansion was primarily due to the fed's purchases of government bonds and mortgage back Securities these actions injected vast amounts of liquidity into the financial system encouraging investors to seek higher returns and riskier assets such as stocks and corporate bonds the extended period of low interest rates beginning after the 2008 crisis and continuing through the covid-19 pandemic has significantly contributed to asset price inflation the cheap borrowing costs have made it easier for individuals and corporations to take on debt fueling Investments across various asset classes including real estate and stocks grantom also highlights the moral hazard created by the central bank policies by consistently intervening to support financial markets during downturns central banks have fostered a mindset among investors at any potential losses will be mitigated by Future interventions this fed put has encouraged risk-taking Behavior as investors believe that the central bank will step in to prevent significant Market declines and this expectation has fueled the speculative Behavior seen in various asset markets contributing to the creation of the current bubble debt levels represent a critical risk highlighted by grantom who use them as a potential Time Bomb for the global economy as of 2024 Global debt is soared to an alarming $300 trillion which is approximately 350% of global GDP this figure has surged from $188 trillion in 2010 reflecting the rampid accumulation of debt over the past decade additionally corporate debt in the United States has surpassed 11 trillion with a substantial portion rated as junk or near junk status in the US total household debt reached $16 trillion in 201 24 with mortgages making up the low to share while low interest rates have made borrowing cheaper they have also driven up home prices heightening concerns about housing affordability and the potential for a market correction investor psychology plays a crucial role in the formation of bubbles a factor grantom underscores as a significant driver of Market extremes this Behavior was evident during the com bubble of the late 1990s when investors flocked to technology stocks without regard for their profitability or valuation a similar pattern has emerged recently with crypto and meme stocks fear of missing out or fomo is another powerful psychological Force driving bubbles during a bubble this can foster a belief that this time's different leading to a perception that traditional valuation rules do not apply and prices can keep Rising indefinitely this mindset was prevalent during the housing bubble of the mid 2000s when many thought home prices would never fall nationally Gram's warnings about the current Super Bubble are rooted in historical precedence of market bubbles that ended in disaster examining these past events provides insight into the potential consequences of the current situation for example the dotcom bubble of 1997 to 2000 saw investors heavily investing in technology stocks many of which had little Revenue leading to the NASDAQ index to Surge to over 400% however when that bubble burst in March 2000 the NASDAQ plummeted nearly 80% in 2 years erasing trillions in market value and triggering a Severe recession in the tech sector so what are your views on today's video let us know in the comment section below and for more amazing videos make sure you subscribe to our Channel