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uh hi John I mean it's a it is a path that is sort of in the middle of that um you know I think Powell today was kind of emphasis at the fed's reaction is changing and that's why we saw uh March and may hikes actually increase but if you ask is the trajectory of inflation what changed it or moved markets it hasn't you know um in fact if you look at the break evens for six months forward or 12 months they actually went down today so I think the stock market is going to care about the path of inflation it does care about how the FED reacts to it but the reason we're constructive has a lot to do with leading indicators showing us that inflation could be a lot softer I know January sort of changed a lot of people's minds but you know we start to get some of the February data and I and I do think some of this seasonal Distortion the gap between jolts and indeed I mean these gaps uh as they close actually show us that inflation pressures could be easing actually a lot faster than expected so that's keeping us constructive so Tom then on a day like today and I know you're bullish and and you do think the Market's going to rally on a day like today where you have all the major averages down more than one percent every sector in the s p in the red would you be buying and if so what uh yeah I mean today you know today's a day that uh you know someone hits the sell button and maybe not discriminating on price so I would look at that as a buying opportunity I mean the vix moved up but the 10-year yield actually uh was pretty flat and we did see some signs of panic whether you're looking at Arms index it's not quite at the Panic level or the put call ratio um so I do think that this is a better entry point not to be selling here but to be buying and you know we'd be sticking with what we liked at the start of the year which is Fang and the Industrials and then sort of a distant third is is energy but energy is probably tougher in the first half uh Mike want to get your thoughts on this too because we did see broad-based selling today financials the worst performing real estate as you might expect with yields moving higher as well but also materials I mean it was really kind of across the board today um the way to think about this uh just a knee-jerk reaction to what we saw in the bond market in response to Powell or um or or something more in terms of the technicals I think it was mostly a reflex response but a Justified one to a fair degree I mean you have to reprice according to the rate path I do think breadth was relatively negative but it's you know we're working off of uh I think some money in the bank so to speak that the rally has earned uh us so it's not as if you've kind of Unwound the strength even of last week's bounce so technically I think it's okay it's precarious but it's probably not something that changed the real weakness in Regional Bank stocks within financials definitely noteworthy if you look at like a five-year chart of the regional Banks ETF it looks like it's kind of teetering near the edge of of some some key levels basically it hasn't been this low in a couple years so you know that's not a great economic message but you've also had head fakes lower before in uh in exactly that sector Tom with a 50 basis point hike change your opinion uh uh I mean 50 basis point hike is going to have to get priced into the stock market I think today was maybe the start of how that's going to affect markets but you know I think it there's a misconception that as long as a Fed is hiking that the stock market will go down because Financial conditions are tightening I mean that was true of last year because the Fed was higher in a hurry but if you look at the 14 fed cycle since 1970 where the Fed was Raising over more than a 24-month period 11 of those 14 times stocks made new highs while the Fed was hiking I wonder what would it take 75 would it take just a seven percent Target what would it take to make you less bullish well John I think if we were hurtling towards a recession uh I think that would be tough for stocks to actually rise but as you know there were predictions of recessions last year and again we're still waiting for those recessioned you know metrics to show up so I think as long as inflation is improving and the FED is doing its job that's not that's not a reason for someone to say the stock market has to go down 20 last year we already had a 27 drawdown so I think you know you have to keep in mind the Market's been an uptrend since October so we're six months into an uptrend and if that's his test and we're up I present this year is someone going to say where's the recession are we going to say that maybe it was a time to be adding risk
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