저자: Corey · 외국인
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2021.07.08 미국 증시 일일 기술적 분석. SPY는 430 지지선 위 상승추세 유지, 430~436 목표 제시, 427 이탈 시 경고. 나스닥100(QQQ/TQQQ)은 355 갭 메움 후 상승추세, 359 저항·362/367 목표. 다우·러셀2000 등 추세 유지. 비트코인은 30,000~33,000 지지 위에서 이중바닥 가능성, 36,000 돌파 시 강세 전환 주장. 아마존·테슬라·애플 강세 관점, 금융·산업재 약세 주의. 채널 유료 알림 서비스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome to the stocks channel my name is corey and today we did have a volatile day in the stock market and the question is will the sell-off continue or was this just a pullback before we continue to go higher first up let's take a look at the s p 500 spy etf so let's crack open this chart and see what's going on in the stock market today all right so today on spy we did drop 0.81 percent and the price action did close over that support level at 4 30.
we did gap down below that support level right on top of that 13 ema and we did see some more selling before buyers stepped in and we did see the price action closing above that support we're back below the 5 ema but we've had a really nice bull rally and there's no surprise that we're seeing a little bit of cooling off remember nothing goes up in a straight line forever and every bull market will always have pullbacks on the way to brand new all-time highs so if you're looking at the bull trend we still have the bullish trend with all the moving averages still stacked to the bull side and these pullbacks are completely expected and completely normal price action the number one thing you need to pay attention to is the price action and ensure that it is staying over critical support remember our critical support levels are 430 427 and our 20 simple moving average at 426.
if we start getting below the 20 sample moving average at 426 that is our warning sign that we could be rolling over and due for a stock market correction right now this is still pullback territory and it's completely normal to see about a three percent pullback in a bull market when you start getting over five percent and closer to that 10 pullback now you're looking at a stock market correction and you don't want to wait until you're in a stock market correction to realize it so watch these critical support levels at 4 30 4 27 and 4 26 and remember each and every day that critical support level at the 20 simple moving average is going higher and higher because it is a positive sloping 20 simple moving average but as long as we have the bullish trend and the price action is above 430 our price target remains at 436 we will have a new resistance level right around 434 because that was our previous all-time high and like always we need to break out above previous highs to continue to march higher so we will have resistance at 434 and our price target at 436.
if we continue to see selling and we do break down below 427 that will be your early warning sign that you might want to reduce your exposure to the long side and potentially get ready for a stock market correction below the 20 sample moving average we still have a gap to close at 424 support at 423 and our 50 ema right around 421 so from today's close back down to the 50 ema is another 2.4 drop which really isn't all that bad before we have another significant support level so again the sky is not falling and we still have a bull trend with bullish price action still holding up above support so there's no reason to panic sell and there's no reason to overreact just because we finally saw a little bit of selling like i said it's completely normal in bull markets to see pullbacks and it's to be expected and it's actually healthy for the rally because it allows some of those overbought conditions to reset so that we can continue to march higher jumping over to the nasdaq 100 triple q's we dropped point six percent today and again we did see that gap down open and we did close that gap right around 355 so that gap below is now filled which is actually a bullish indication because we did find support at that gap fill and we did see buyer stepping in on the triple q's things are looking a lot more bullish because the price action still is closing above the 5 ema so even on a day that the stock market is trying to sell off we can't even get the triple q's to close below the 5 ema we do have resistance yet again at 359 but if we break above that level we could be going back to 362 and above 362 our next price target is 367.
to the downside we should have support around 353 to 354 and our 20 simple moving average is now right around 350. just like on spy you want to watch that 20 simple moving average very closely so triple q's levels below 350 will be an early warning sign that we could be going into a deeper stock market correction but right now we still have a very strong bull trend and we still have plenty of support to allow this bull trend to continue to extend higher so like i said one day of volatility and a little bit of selling is not breaking this bullish trend because as you can tell the trend is still very strong below 350 we would still have support at 348 346 and 342 which is right around that 50 ema from today's close back down to the 50 ema is about a 4.8 percent drop so that is a little more significant than we have on the spy but again you'll have an early warning sign if we start closing below the 20 simple moving average which is all the way up here at 350.
on the dow jones we dropped 0.73 today and we did test the 50 ema and the 20 simple moving average as support and we did see buyers stepping in so the critical support levels will be 341 and 343 and our upside resistance will be 345 348 and 350. again the dow jones still has the full bull trend and pretty soon we should see that 20 simple moving average starting to slope upward giving us a positive slope to help push the price action higher so right now all three indices still have a full bolt trend and the price action is still holding up above critical support on the russell 2000 we dropped 0.92 today and we did hold up above that critical support at 220.
below 220 we still have support around 219 and below that we're looking for support at 215. upside resistance will be 226 227 228.5 and 230. the russell 2000 is still in a sideways consolidation and it does not have a full bull trend like the other three indices so on the russell 2000 continue to look for more sideways chop until it finally breaks out to the downside or the upside to define a trend on the rk etf we dropped 0.76 percent today and rk did test the 50 emas support at 119.
we did bounce off the 50 ema and close back above the 20 simple moving average which is a bullish indication and we still have the full bull trend so look for support on rk right around 119 and below that our next support level is down here right around 112.6 to the upside we'll have resistance at 124 128 and 130 and do remember that rk is still in a full bull trend and it did bounce off of a critical support level today so overall when you see something in a full bull trend bouncing off critical support that could be your best buying opportunity right around that critical support level because that's where you can set your risk and you know if it starts closing below that level you can stop out so rk right around 119 is a nice time to go long knowing if it closes below this level you can stop out and retry at another support level below so i'm still bullish on rk as long as it has the full bull trend and holding up above critical support on the vix we went up over 17 today and we did see the vix going to 19.
again it's completely normal to see the vix between about 15 and 19 and it's completely normal volatility we're always going to see profit taking and people selling eventually in a bull market and that will lead to these pullbacks if we start to see the vix getting over 20 and staying over 20 that will be early warning side we could be going into a deeper stock market correction as you can tell the vix did spike over 20 today but it did not close above 20 therefore we don't have that price action in the vix just yet usually on fridays we get that vix crush friday so it'll be interesting to see if tomorrow crushes the vix all the way back below 18.2 or not your critical support levels on the vix will be 18.2 and 16.65 below 18.2 things are looking a lot more bullish and above vix levels of 20 things are looking a lot more bearish or a lot more concerning for a correction on the dollar we did see some weakness today with the dollar closing below the 5 ema however the dollar still in a strong bull trend so you still need to be cautious of the us dollar strength growing if you are trading gold and silver on gold we're finding resistance at the 50 ema and we need to see gold breaking back above that level at 18 13 to start going back into a bull trend above the 50 ema will still have resistance at 18 29 and above that we have a price target at 1876 downside support will be 1792 1776 and 1761.
on silver we're finding support at that 25.8 level and if we break down below that we'll be looking for support at 25.1 upside resistance levels will be 26.2 26.5 and the 50 ema at 26.6 on bitcoin we're currently down over three percent and we still see bitcoin holding above that critical support level right around 30 000 right around 33 000 is another critical support that we want to see bitcoin trying to stay above if we break below 33 000 look for support at 30 000 and if we break below 30 000 things will be looking a lot more concerning with potential to find support at 27 000 but overall as long as bitcoin is above 30 000 i want to remain bullish because it's still possible bitcoin did a double bottom and it's just an accumulation mode at these low prices before it goes back into a bull market we'll know bitcoins going back into a bull market because it'll break out above 36 000 and then again break out above 39 000 and regain the bullish trend so right now bitcoin is still consolidating and going sideways and it's still holding up above critical support so we want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt on amazon we saw another bullish day today going up 0.94 percent after a massive gap down open we saw amazon opening below support at 36.54 and then we saw buyers of the dip and we see amazon closing at yet another brand new all-time high we did find resistance right at 37.60 which is our resistance level and above that we have our price target at 3 800.
we have the full bull trend and we definitely see plenty buyers of the dip on increasing volume so amazon is still looking incredibly bullish here look for support at 36.55 and 35.52 on tesla we're up 1.27 today and again we see buyers of the dip we gapped down right at that support level right around 626 and the buyers stepped in and we closed back above the 50 ema and the 20 simple moving average the good news on tesla is we're one day away from having the full bull trend with the 20 simple moving average closing back over the 50 ema with price action holding over critical support so if tesla can break out of our resistance trend line at 653 yet again and break out above about 659 we could see tesla going into that massive bull rally that we've been waiting for so if tesla can break back above 659 it should start running with resistance levels at 692 714 and 765.
so i'm getting awfully bullish on tesla here because it's about to have the full bull trend holding up above critical support if tesla breaks back down below about 645 and closes below 626 you're looking for critical support at 594 and 546. on apple we were down about 0.92 percent today and again we just see apple cooling off after a massive bull rally the price action was well outside the upper bollinger band and it was just going way too far way too fast again we see really nice volume on apple and we definitely saw buyers of the dip at that support level right around 141 which was our price action breakout so apple still looks really good but we still do have a gap below at 137 there's no guarantee of when that gap will get filled but gaps typically do get filled so do watch that gap as possible support our upside resistance levels will be 145 and above that our price target is 148.
downside support is 141 the gap fell at 137 and below that we have support at 135. on the financial sector we dropped two percent today and we continue to see the financial sector struggling the price actions below all the moving averages and we're getting very close to having a bearish trend so we don't want to see the financial sector going into a bear market if we want to remain bullish on the s p 500 so we need to continue to watch the financial sector to see if it's going to a bear market or if it's going to start bouncing soon on the industrials we dropped 1.39 today and we're back below the 50 ema we still have the full bull trend but the price action is not bullish as long as it's below the 50 ema so we need to see the industrial start bouncing soon and getting back above the moving averages to maintain the bullish trend the healthcare sector dropped 0.55 percent today but it's still over a positive sloping 5ma and it's still in a very strong bull trend so there's no concerns in the healthcare sector the energy sector dropped 0.58 today and it's closing below the 50 ema for the third day in a row just like with the financial sector we definitely see bearish price action and somewhat of a bearish trend building up so the energy sector doesn't carry enough weight in the s p 500 to be too concerned about it but if you're trading energy you really want to see the price action getting back over that 50 ema to regain the bullish trend so jumping back over to the s p 500 you can still see the price action and the trend are still incredibly bullish in the s p 500 the nasdaq 100 and the dow jones there's no reason to get overly bearish just because we see a little bit of profit taking and a little bit of selling watch the critical support levels and watch the trend and as long as the price action is holding above critical support and we're maintaining a bullish trend there's no reason to get overly bearish just because we see a little bit of volatility so the price action on spy is still up there at 4 36 with critical support just below so watch those levels very closely remember to block out the noise and follow the price action in the trend because that's the only way to stay objective there's a lot of bearish noise out there and i can tell you right now it's very unlikely we're going to a stock market correction when the majority of retail is awfully bearish they're generally wrong and they're generally going against the trend which means they're on the losing side of the trade so block out the noise and stay objective and you'll do much better in this market also don't forget that i did launch my trade alert service called bank trade alerts and it only trades the triple queues it's very easy to follow and all of the buy and sell alerts come directly to you via email and text message i'm also running a 50 off promo code for your first month and now is the best time to try out the bank system you can find out how to join in the description below also don't forget about the stock channel discord where i do intraday updates and analysis to always help you navigate this market and stay on the right side of the trade you can find out how to join the discord server below so thanks for watching everybody i hope you're crushing this market and as always i will see you in the next episode
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